College aantekeningen
Understanding and Assessing Technologies for Sustainability
- Instelling
- Universiteit Utrecht (UU)
Understanding and Assessing Technologies for Sustainability, UATS
[Meer zien]Voorbeeld 4 van de 54 pagina's
Voorbeeld 4 van de 54 pagina's
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Voorbeeld van de inhoud
Week 36 - Lecture 1 - 9 septemberChasing systems
● Nodes (tangible objects) and Links (connections)
● Represent our private world view (e.g. the meaning of a toast between different
cultures)
● It reveals our point of view
> How eager were you to change your model?
> How similar/different were your model compared to the group model?
How to verify your models?
➢ HARD SYSTEMS
○ Test the model (robustness)
■ Consistency
■ Sensitivity
■ Uncertainty
➢ SOFT SYSTEMS
○ Bounded Rationality
○ Expand your models
➢ BOTH CASES
○ Focus on the process of building the model and not only in the model
○ Manage tension (humility vs action)
○ Keep learning…and apply your knowledge!
Week 37 - Lecture 2 - 14 september
Past Civilisations and Sustainable Development
What is a system? Systems are all around us: food systems, economic systems,
ecosystems, the human body
- A system is dynamic entity made up of constituent parts
- Within a system the different parts are to a greater or lesser degree interdependent
- Interdependency means that the links between the components are critical
Reductionism: seeks to break down systems to their constituent parts in order to
understand the fundamental building blocks of that system. Key to scientific method.
- It has fundamentally changed our understanding of the natural world since the
enlightenment (genetics, quantum physics, chemistry)
- However, reductionism has limits when you try to combine the constituent parts of a
system
- In a system, how the constituent parts are linked is critical to understand how the
system functions
- So the linkages among components are as important as the components
themselves
Complexity Science
- Seels to understand the interactions among constituent components of a system
,Complex systems are interdependent
- Connections create resilience
● Trade partners
● Friends
- Connections can create vulnerabilities
● Disease in food web
● Shocks in financial systems
● Drought in food systems
- Diversity provides resilience, more diversity is more resilience
● Species in ecosystem
● Products produced in an economy
It is holistic rather than reductionist: an attempt to understand the system as a whole
● Complexity science is generalisable to all systems
➔ Therefore it provides a common language and way of thinking that facilitates
interdisciplinary collaboration
● Complexity is also an intutiive worldview
➔ Seeing the world around you in a holistic way
Why is complexity useful in the context of sustainability
● Sustainability challenges are typified by interdependencies
○ Humans and the environment
○ Sectors of economy
○ Subsystems of the earth
○ Cross-scale interdependencies
○ Water has an influence on the food and energy sector and otherwise.
● Sustainability challenges cut across disciplines
○ Therefore we need a common language to facilitate collaboration
● Complexity is an ideal platform for collaboration
○ Principles apply across human and environmental disciplines
Why look at past societies in the context of sustainability
- We can observe how secisions societies make in regard to their environment play out
over the long term. Which strategies provide resilience and make societies
vulnerable.
- Even though current society may feel disconnected from the environment, we are just
as reliant on the environment to humans in the past
- Its important to realise that in some crucial ways we are different from past societies
but fundamentally, I believe anyway, we are the same in our relation to the
environment. Because just like them, we depend on the environment for all the goods
and services we use.
-
Humans and environmental change
- Changing the environment 80,000 years ago.
, - Humans coevolved with the mega fauna in Africa. Thus they learned how to compete
with us and avoid being our prey. In these other regions, we were like an invasive
species. The local fauna didn’t
Climate change and the birth of civilization
- Sea level rise following the end of the ice age flooded the persian gulf
- Higher parts are shallow and flooded relatively rapidly or even in a single event.
- It is thought that people migrated to locations owing to the flooding
When dealing with the impact of climate, a number of studies look to correlations between
the climate changes and societal events and infer causality.
Climate and civilisation
- Many moved to the Delta of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers where there was swamp
land and fresh water sources.
- The innovat to survive: theu developed irrigration technology which increased the
carrying capacity of the region.
Factors determining succes/collapse
- Large magnitude of change but relatively slow
- Societies were able to adapt and thrive
- Lesser magnitude of change but relatively sudden
- Societies were unable to adapt and collapsed
Birth of cities
- First urban civilization: sumerians: developed irritgration, allowed them to thrive in the
arid climate. The region became agricultrually productive in warm temperature and
reliable water supply.
- Writing was inveted to facilitate the organisation of an increasingly complex society
Innovation, growth and degradation
- High rates of evaporation led to the salinization of
fields and reduced yields
- Carrying capacity of agrigcultural socities often
reduces over time: soil degradation. salinization.
- Innovations increase the carrying capacity: the
plough, irrigration, new crop types
- Populations grow to the new carrying capacity
and the cycle begins over
- Overprinting this is climate variablility. The closer
societies are to their carrying capacity, the less
buffer they have to absorb environmental changes
What can we learn from the romans?
❖ Parallels with current society
➢ Roman Empire was a closed system in terms of food supply
➢ It was confronted with the pressures of urbanisation and populations growth
, ❖ Differences with current society
➢ There were fewer artificial trade barriers
➢ The sociaeconomic trade dynamics were simpler than in present-day
Trade and resilience
In a trading system among hetereogenous environments they can import when they have a
deficit and export when they have a surplus. Trade therefore increases the ecohydrological
carrying capacity of trading regions without any increase in resource use. It also enables
certain regions to grow well beyond their local ecohydrological carrying capacities enabling
the growth of cities and populations in dry regions of the world.
However at longer timescales population in a trading society can continue to grow meaning
that they approach a global rather than local carrying capacity. Thus if there is an
environmental change large enough to impact many regions of that society it can have a
large impact. Also, in trading societies, regions are not just susceptible to environmental
changes but breakdowns in the trade network itself.
When we talk about resilience, trade is very interesting because on shorter timescales it
increases human resilience to environmental variability, but at longer timescales that
resileince may be eroded and new vulnerabiilities introduced.
What can we learn from the Roman period about the dynamics of virtual water trade that can
help us understand if it makes us more resilient or not.
- Isolated carrying capacity
- Stable carrying capacity > stay below variation
- Trade increasement leads to a higher carrying capacity
What determines if a society succeeds or not?
➔ Magnitude of change irrespective of whether change originates internally or
externally
◆ Sumerians arose under large magnitude but slow rate of climate change
➔ Rate of change irrespective of whether change originates internally or externally
◆ Akkadian Empire fell because of smaller magnitude but rapid change
➔ Resilience of society: can society absorb or adapt to change?
◆ Romans linked diverse environments via trade
◆ Irrigation provided stable yields
◆ Increased interdependency of the system brought about new challenges
The industrial revolution
- Innovation of the steam enginge unleased the energetic potential of fossil fuels.
- Positive feedback: coal
- Increased productivity of many processes that had relied on wind or water mills or
beasts.
- Attracted substitence farmers to enter factories in the growing economy with
increased specialization
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