Statistics__4th_edition_By_David_Freedman__Robert_Pisani complete update A+ grade

Statistics Fourth Edition DAVID FREEDMAN ROBERT PISANI ROGER PURVES Statistics Fourth Edition W • W • NORTON & COMPANY NEW YORK • LONDON Cartoons by Dana Fradon and Leo Cullum The text of this book is composed in Times Roman. Composition by Integre Technical Publishing Company, Inc. Manufacturing by R. R. Donnelley. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Freedman, David, 1938– Statistics. — 4th ed. / David Freedman, Robert Pisani, Roger Purves. p. cm. Rev. ed. of: Statistics / David Freedman ... [et al.], 3rd ed. c 1998. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-393-92972-8 ISBN -0 1. Mathematical statistics. I. Pisani, Robert. II. Purves, Roger. III. Statistics. IV. Title. QA276.F683 519.5—dc21 W.W. Norton & Company, Inc., 500 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10110 W.W. Norton & Company Ltd., Castle House, 75/76 Wells Street, London W1T 3QT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 To Jerzy Neyman (1894–1981) Born in Russia, Neyman worked in Poland and England before coming to the United States in 1938. He was one of the great statisticians of our time. Contents Preface xv PART I. DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTS Chapter 1. Controlled Experiments 3 1. The Salk Vaccine Field Trial 3 2. The Portacaval Shunt 7 3. Historical Controls 8 4. Summary 10 Chapter 2. Observational Studies 12 1. Introduction 12 2. The Clofibrate Trial 13 3. More Examples 15 4. Sex Bias in Graduate Admissions 17 5. Confounding 20 6. Review Exercises 24 7. Summary and Overview 27 PART II. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS Chapter 3. The Histogram 31 1. Introduction 31 2. Drawing a Histogram 35 3. The Density Scale 38 4. Variables 42 5. Controlling for a Variable 45 6. Cross-Tabulation 47 7. Selective Breeding 48 8. Review Exercises 50 9. Summary 56 Chapter 4. The Average and the Standard Deviation 57 1. Introduction 57 2. The Average 58 3. The Average and the Histogram 61 4. The Root-Mean-Square 66 5. The Standard Deviation 67 6. Computing the Standard Deviation 71 7. Using a Statistical Calculator 74 8. Review Exercises 74 9. Summary 76 Chapter 5. The Normal Approximation for Data 78 1. The Normal Curve 78 2. Finding Areas under the Normal Curve 82 3. The Normal Approximation for Data 85 4. Percentiles 88 5. Percentiles and the Normal Curve 90 6. Change of Scale 92 7. Review Exercises 93 8. Summary 96 Chapter 6. Measurement Error 97 1. Introduction 97 2. Chance Error 97 3. Outliers 102 4. Bias 103 5. Review Exercises 104 6. Special Review Exercises 105 7. Summary and Overview 108 Chapter 7. Plotting Points and Lines 110 1. Reading Points off a Graph 110 2. Plotting Points 112 3. Slope and Intercept 113 4. Plotting Lines 114 5. The Algebraic Equation for a Line 115 PART III. CORRELATION AND REGRESSION Chapter 8. Correlation 119 1. The Scatter Diagram 119 2. The Correlation Coefficient 125 3. The SD Line 130 4. Computing the Correlation Coefficient 132 5. Review Exercises 134 6. Summary 139 Chapter 9. More about Correlation 141 1. Features of the Correlation Coefficient 141 2. Changing SDs 144 3. Some Exceptional Cases 147 4. Ecological Correlations 148 5. Association is Not Causation 150 6. Review Exercises 153 7. Summary 157 Chapter 10. Regression 158 1. Introduction 158 2. The Graph of Averages 162 3. The Regression Method for Individuals 165 4. The Regression Fallacy 169 5. There Are Two Regression Lines 174 6. Review Exercises 176 7. Summary 178 Chapter 11. The R.M.S. Error for Regression 180 1. Introduction 180 2. Computing the R.M.S. Error 185 3. Plotting the Residuals 187 4. Looking at Vertical Strips 190 5. Using the Normal Curve Inside a Vertical Strip 195 6. Review Exercises 198 7. Summary 201 Chapter 12. The Regression Line 202 1. Slope and Intercept 202 2. The Method of Least Squares 208 3. Does the Regression Make Sense? 211 4. Review Exercises 213 5. Summary and Overview 216 PART IV. PROBABILITY Chapter 13. What Are the Chances? 221 1. Introduction 221 2. Conditional Probabilities 226 3. The Multiplication Rule 4. Independence 230 228 5. The Collins Case 233 6. Review Exercises 234 7. Summary 236 Chapter 14. More about Chance 237 1. Listing the Ways 237 2. The Addition Rule 241 3. Two FAQs (Frequently Asked Questions) 243 4. The Paradox of the Chevalier De Me´re´ 5. Are Real Dice Fair? 252 6. Review Exercises 252 7. Summary 254 248 Chapter 15. The Binomial Formula 255 1. Introduction 255 2. The Binomial Formula 259 3. Review Exercises 261 4. Special Review Exercises 263 5. Summary and Overview 268 PART V. CHANCE VARIABILITY Chapter 16. The Law of Averages 273 1. What Does the Law of Averages Say? 273 2. Chance Processes 278 3. The Sum of Draws 279 4. Making a Box Model 281 5. Review Exercises 285 6. Summary 287 Chapter 17. The Expected Value and Standard Error 288 1. The Expected Value 288 2. The Standard Error 290 3. Using the Normal Curve 294 4. A Short-Cut 298 5. Classifying and Counting 299 6. Review Exercises 304 7. Postscript 307 8. Summary 307 Chapter 18. The Normal Approximation for Probability Histograms 308 1. Introduction 308 2. Probability Histograms 310 3. Probability Histograms and the Normal Curve 315 4. The Normal Approximation 317 5. The Scope of the Normal Approximation 319 6. Conclusion 325 7. Review Exercises 327 8. Summary 329 PART VI. SAMPLING Chapter 19. Sample Surveys 333 1. Introduction 333 2. The Literary Digest Poll 334 3. The Year the Polls Elected Dewey 337 4. Using Chance in Survey Work 339 5. How Well Do Probability Methods Work? 342 6. A Closer Look at the Gallup Poll 343 7. Telephone Surveys 346 8. Chance Error and Bias 348 9. Review Exercises 351 10. Summary 353 Chapter 20. Chance Errors in Sampling 355 1. Introduction 355 2. The Expected Value and Standard Error 359 3. Using the Normal Curve 362 4. The Correction Factor 367 5. The Gallup Poll 370 6. Review Exercises 371 7. Summary 373 Chapter 21. The Accuracy of Percentages 375 1. Introduction 375 2. Confidence Intervals 381 3. Interpreting a Confidence Interval 383 4. Caveat Emptor 387 5. The Gallup Poll 389 6. Review Exercises 391 7. Summary 394 Chapter 22. Measuring Employment and Unemployment 395 1. Introduction 395 2. The Design of the Current Population Survey 396 3. Carrying out the Survey 398 4. Weighting the Sample 401 5. Standard Errors 402 6. The Quality of the Data 404 7. Bias 404 8. Review Exercises 405 9. Summary 407 Chapter 23. The Accuracy of Averages 409 1. Introduction 409 2. The Sample Average 415 3. Which SE? 422 4. A Reminder 424 5. Review Exercises 425 6. Special Review Exercises 428 7. Summary and Overview 436 PART VII. CHANCE MODELS Chapter 24. A Model for Measurement Error 441 1. Estimating the Accuracy of an Average 441 2. Chance Models 445 3. The Gauss Model 450 4. Conclusion 454 5. Review Exercises 455 6. Summary 457 Chapter 25. Chance Models in Genetics 458 1. How Mendel Discovered Genes 458 2. Did Mendel’s Facts Fit His Model? 463 3. The Law of Regression 465 xii CONTENTS 4. An Appreciation of the Model 468 5. Review Exercises 470 6. Summary and Overview 471 PART VIII. TESTS OF SIGNIFICANCE Chapter 26. Tests of Significance 475 1. Introduction 475 2. The Null and the Alternative 477 3. Test Statistics and Significance Levels 478 4. Making a Test of Significance 482 5. Zero-One Boxes 483 6. The t -Test 488 7. Review Exercises 495 8. Summary 500 Chapter 27. More Tests for Averages 501 1. The Standard Error for a Difference 501 2. Comparing Two Sample Averages 503 3. Experiments 508 4. More on Experiments 512 5. When Does the z-Test Apply? 517 6. Review Exercises 518 7. Summary 521 Chapter 28. The Chi-Square Test 523 1. Introduction 523 2. The Structure of the χ 2-Test 530 3. How Fisher Used the χ 2-Test 533 4. Testing Independence 535 5. Review Exercises 540 6. Summary 544 Chapter 29. A Closer Look at Tests of Significance 545 1. Was the Result Significant? 545 2. Data Snooping 547 3. Was the Result Important? 552 4. The Role of the Model 555 5. Does the Difference Prove the Point? 560 6. Conclusion 562 7. Review Exercises 563 8. Special Review Exercises 565 9. Summary and Overview 576 ....................................................continued......................................................................