This comprehensive case study on Africa's stalling progress through the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is part of the Geography A-Level's population topic. It explores the factors contributing to Africa's slow transition through the DTM stages, analysing economic, social, and health-related cha...
Africa’s Sub-Saharan Stalling Progress Through the DTM
Less Than Half of Sub-Saharan Africa Shows Significant Fertility Decline
There are multiple ways to describe fertility stall however, a simple
one is that if a country has a fertility decline of less than 0.05 child
per women per year
The table on the right shows 22 countries included in an analysis.
Which found that only 10 of the countries were experiencing an
annually fertility decline of at 0.05 child per women, their status is
shown in green. The remaining countries are experiencing a much
slower decline and in some cases an increase.
The majority of these ‘stalling’ countries are located in West Africa
however their geography is unlikely to be the reason for this stall.
Stalling countries are High-Fertility Countries
From the table we can calculate that the average fertility rate in countries that are transitioning is
4.9 whereas in countries that are stalling it is 5.6. This could mean that fertility is stagnant at higher
levels and then declines once it has passed a certain threshold. Zimbabwe is the exception as it has
experienced the most significant increase in fertility whilst also having the second lowest TFR.
Knowledge of at least one contraceptive method is nearly universal, above 90% in 18 of the 22
countries. However, only two-thirds of women in Niger and Nigeria have knowledge of modern
contraception. Chad has one f the lowest rates of contraceptive use in the world at less than 2%.
The average age a mother, now 30-34, had her first child was 19.5 in the stalling countries compared
to 20 in the transition countries. Also, the average use of contraception in a married couple is only
11% in stalling countries compared with 28% in the transition countries. In stalling countries, the
ideal family size is also a lot higher, in Chad and Niger it is nine.
Large Desired Family Sizes, But Also Opposition and Health Concerns
Reasons why women are non-contraceptive users:
Fertility-related: A women believes she will not get pregnant.
Opposition: Some religious beliefs oppose family planning.
Knowledge: Unaware of contraception and how to obtain it.
Access: Physically of financially unable to obtain it.
Health: The women is concerned about contraception and its
side effects.
Breaking From the Mold
There are also other factors that contribute to the variation in fertility transitions, such as the quality
of national family planning programs in terms of funding, human resources, logistics and political
commitment. Also, demographers have found that an increase in women’s education and
improvements in infant and child mortality contribute to faster fertility declines. Not only are the
demographic changes in Africa not following the mold of other regions, but they are also not
following one another.
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