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Samenvatting statistiek 4 (NEDERLANDS) ()

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  • 10 augustus 2021
  • 174
  • 2020/2021
  • College aantekeningen
  • Tuerlinckx
  • Alle colleges
Alle documenten voor dit vak (1)
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theAstudy
Statistiek 4
Francis Tuerlinckx


Inhoudsopgave

Chapter 3 contrasten: Wees specifieker! ................................................................................................................ 2

Gegevens voorbeeld MDD: Again treatment of depression .................................................................................... 2
Gegevensvoorbeeld MDD: beperkingen ...................................................................................................................... 3

Doel (van dit hoofdstuk) ......................................................................................................................................... 3

Terminologie .......................................................................................................................................................... 3

1 gepland contrast.................................................................................................................................................. 6
Afleiding van de SP-verdeling van ! ........................................................................................................................... 6
Statistische inferentie voor " ...................................................................................................................................... 8
Statistische inferentie voor ": CI ................................................................................................................................. 8
Statistische inferentie voor ": hypothese test ............................................................................................................. 9
Statistische inferentie voor ": Effectgrootte ............................................................................................................. 10
Statistische inferentie voor ": Street fighting statistics ............................................................................................ 11

Het veelvuldig testen van vele geplande contrasten ............................................................................................. 12
Multiple testing: many planned contrasts ................................................................................................................ 12

Paarsgewijze contrasten....................................................................................................................................... 15

Posthoc contrasten en fishing expeditions............................................................................................................ 18

Enkele bijkomende zoektochten naar contrasten ................................................................................................. 19

Class project ......................................................................................................................................................... 21

Chapter 4: sample size planning ........................................................................................................................... 23

Datavoorbeeld: Moral self-licensing ..................................................................................................................... 24

Doel ..................................................................................................................................................................... 25

Basisbegrippen van het statistical power/ onderscheidingsvermogen .................................................................. 25
De centrale en niet-centrale #-distributie ................................................................................................................. 26
De waarschijnlijkheid van $% verwerpen als dat waar is? ....................................................................................... 29
De waarschijnlijkheid van $% verwerpen als dat niet waar is? ................................................................................ 29
Power is afhankelijk van &, ( en effectgrootte ......................................................................................................... 30
Berekeningen van de steekproefomvang .................................................................................................................. 32

Discussie .............................................................................................................................................................. 34



1

,Chapter 5: Assumptions: There is no free lunch .................................................................................................... 35

Datavoorbeeld: Moral self-licensing ..................................................................................................................... 36

Doel ..................................................................................................................................................................... 36

Assumpties en uitschieters ................................................................................................................................... 37
Robuustheid tegen schendingen van assumpties...................................................................................................... 37
Homoscedasticiteit .................................................................................................................................................... 38
Normaliteit ................................................................................................................................................................ 39
Onafhankelijkheid ..................................................................................................................................................... 39
Uitschieters ............................................................................................................................................................... 39

Checken van de assumpties .................................................................................................................................. 39

Hoe om te gaan met geschonden assumpties en uitschieters?.............................................................................. 41
Transformaties .......................................................................................................................................................... 42
ANOVA op rangorde .................................................................................................................................................. 42
Simulatie gebaseerde methoden............................................................................................................................... 43
Gerandomizeerde tests ........................................................................................................................................ 43
Bootstrap .............................................................................................................................................................. 44

Hoe vermijdt u “the garden of forken paths”? ...................................................................................................... 45

Chapter 6: Multifactoriële ANOVA........................................................................................................................ 46

Datavoorbeeld: vruchtbaarheid, relaties en religiositeit ....................................................................................... 47

Doel ..................................................................................................................................................................... 48

Exploratieve analyse ............................................................................................................................................ 48

Introductie & notatie ........................................................................................................................................... 49
Gebalanceerd design ................................................................................................................................................. 50
Gebalanceerd design: illustratie ........................................................................................................................... 50
Gebalanceerd design: Vruchtbaarheidsgegevens ................................................................................................ 50
Gebalanceerd design: SP gemiddelden ................................................................................................................ 50

Interactie & hoofdeffect ....................................................................................................................................... 51
Geen interactie .......................................................................................................................................................... 51

Effect parameters ................................................................................................................................................. 54

Analyse van een gebalanceerd two-way factorieel design .................................................................................... 56
Interactie tussen A en B............................................................................................................................................. 56
Stap 1: Modellen en hypothesen ......................................................................................................................... 56
Stap 2: Keuze van de toetsstatistiek..................................................................................................................... 58
Stap 3: de steekproefverdeling van ) onder *0 .................................................................................................. 59
Stap 4: Bepaal de grootte van uw effect .............................................................................................................. 59
Hoofdeffect van A ..................................................................................................................................................... 60
Stap 1: Modellen en hypotheses .......................................................................................................................... 60



2

, Stap 2: Keuze van de toetsstatistiek..................................................................................................................... 61
Stap 3: de steekproefverdeling van ) onder *0 .................................................................................................. 61
Stap 4: Bepaal de grootte van uw effect .............................................................................................................. 61

Wat te doen als het design ongebalanceerd is? .................................................................................................... 62

The data multiverse ............................................................................................................................................. 64

Enkele verschillende topics .................................................................................................................................. 65

Chapter 7: Repeated measures ............................................................................................................................. 66

Datavoorbeeld: E-cigarettes en craving ................................................................................................................ 67

Doel ..................................................................................................................................................................... 68

Terminologie en dataformaten ............................................................................................................................. 69

De eenvoudigste repeated metingen design ......................................................................................................... 69

Meer complexe designs ........................................................................................................................................ 71
1 within-subject factor .............................................................................................................................................. 71
1 between-subject en 1 within-subject factor ........................................................................................................... 74

Statistische interferentie ...................................................................................................................................... 75
1 within-subject factor .............................................................................................................................................. 76
1 between-subject en 1 within-subject factor ........................................................................................................... 78

Diverse topics....................................................................................................................................................... 80
Effectgrootte ............................................................................................................................................................. 80
Assumpties ................................................................................................................................................................ 80
Steekproefgrootte berekenen ................................................................................................................................... 82

Chapter 8: Simple lineair regression ..................................................................................................................... 83

Chapter 8: Eenvoudige lineaire regressie: Simple but powerful ............................................................................ 83

Datavoorbeeld: Predicatie van 100 m in 2020....................................................................................................... 84

Doel ..................................................................................................................................................................... 85

Exploratieve (of verkennende) dataanalyse .......................................................................................................... 85

Notatie & interpretatie ........................................................................................................................................ 86
Populatie model ........................................................................................................................................................ 86
Interpretatie van ,- ................................................................................................................................................. 87
Interpretatie van ,% ................................................................................................................................................. 88

Statistische inferentie .......................................................................................................................................... 90
Schatting van de regressiecoëfficiënten .................................................................................................................... 90
Onzekerheid van ,% en ,- ....................................................................................................................................... 91



3

, Betrouwbaarheidsinterval......................................................................................................................................... 93
Hypothesetests .......................................................................................................................................................... 93
Effectgrootte ............................................................................................................................................................. 95
Effectgrootte: Associatie sterkte .......................................................................................................................... 95
Effectgrootte: ruw regressiegewicht en bijbehorend CI ...................................................................................... 95
Effectgrootte: gestandaardiseerd regressiegewicht ............................................................................................ 96
Predictie ............................................................................................................................................................... 96

Assumpties .......................................................................................................................................................... 97
Assumpties: ............................................................................................................................................................... 98
Flexibele smooth regressielijn .............................................................................................................................. 99
Uitschieters .......................................................................................................................................................... 99

Chapter 9: Simple lineair regression ....................................................................................................................103

Chapter 9: Simple lineair regression: Advanced simple linear regression .............................................................104

Datavoorbeeld: Mathematics of forgetting .........................................................................................................104

Doel ....................................................................................................................................................................105

Een verkeerd ingestelde poging: een lineaire relatie............................................................................................106

Betere/ sterkere modellen ..................................................................................................................................106
Model 1: exponentiële functie ........................................................................................................................... 108
Model 2: power functie ...................................................................................................................................... 109

Statistische interferentie .....................................................................................................................................109

Chapter 10: Multiple lineair regression ................................................................................................................111

Chapter 10: Multiple lineair regression................................................................................................................112

Datavoorbeeld: Burnout bij verpleegkundigen ....................................................................................................112

Doel ....................................................................................................................................................................113

Exploratieve data analyse....................................................................................................................................113

Multiple lineaire regressie model ........................................................................................................................114

Statistische inferentie .........................................................................................................................................116
Schatting van de regressiecoëfficiënten en de onzekerheid .................................................................................... 116
Formule voor .1 ................................................................................................................................................ 117
Effectgrootte ........................................................................................................................................................... 118
02 gerelateerde meting ..................................................................................................................................... 118
Hypothese tests ....................................................................................................................................................... 120

Er kunnen vreemde dingen gebeuren in het regressie-analyse ............................................................................122
Case 1: 23(5 ∙ -)5 is kleiner dan 2355 .................................................................................................................. 122
Case 2: 23(5 ∙ -)5 is groter dan 2355 ................................................................................................................... 123
Case 3: multicollineariteit........................................................................................................................................ 124



4

,Interpretatie van regressiegewichten ..................................................................................................................125

Assumpties checken in multiple lineaire regressie ...............................................................................................126

Chapter 11: Speciale predictoren.........................................................................................................................127

Chapter 11: Speciale predictoren.........................................................................................................................128

Doel ....................................................................................................................................................................129

Categorische predictors .......................................................................................................................................129
Hoofdeffecten model............................................................................................................................................... 131
Interactie model ...................................................................................................................................................... 133

Squared predictoren (kwadraat van predictoren) ................................................................................................135
Het toevoegen van categorische hoofdeffecten aan het kwadratische model ................................................. 137

Putting it all together ..........................................................................................................................................137
Interpretatie ............................................................................................................................................................ 138

Chapter 13: Get Validated ...................................................................................................................................139

Chapter 13: Get validated : Validatie van regressiemodellen ...............................................................................140

Data voorbeeld: Salarisgegevens .........................................................................................................................140
Big Data, maar ernstige beperkingen ................................................................................................................. 143

Doel ....................................................................................................................................................................144

Modelselectie, generaliseerbaarheid en predictieve accuraatheid.......................................................................144

Methoden ...........................................................................................................................................................148
Cross-validatie ......................................................................................................................................................... 148
Andere methoden.................................................................................................................................................... 150

Interpretatie .......................................................................................................................................................151




5

, Chapters 1 (Introduction) + 2 (one-way ANOVA)
francis tuerlinckx
gaten
24 september 2019

Table of contents

Overview of the course

Overview

• See Toledo
– syllabus
– schedule


Overview – team

• Instructor: Francis Tuerlinckx
• Teaching assistants:
– Maja Fischer, Febe Brackx, and Sara Herrebosch (statistiek vier)
– Tim Loossens, Sigert Ariens, and Sara Herrebosch (statistics four)


Overview – Goal + content

• introduction to the most common data-analytical methods in psychology
• passive insight (what, how, . . .) and elementary active insight (apply to simple data sets)
• content:
– one-way ANOVA – contrasts – sample size planning – assumptions – multiway anova – repeated
measures
– simple linear regression – mathematical models – multiple linear regression – special predictors –
design matrices – cross validation


Overview – Prerequisites

• basics of descriptive and inductive statistics
• no advanced math


Overview – Lectures times

• Statistiek vier
– Tuesday 2pm-4pm (VHI 01.29)
– Friday 2pm-4pm (VHI 01.29)
• Statistics four
– Wednesday 9:30am-11am (VHI 01.40)
– Friday 4pm-6pm (PSI 01.90)
• but check schedule on Toledo for details



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