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Class notes Topic Political Marketing, Campaigns and Voters (Y)
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Notes of classes from the topic Political Marketing, Campaigns and voters
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Topic political marketing, campaigns and votersLecture 1
The public and its opinion
This is a course about what happens if you expose voters to information? What happens in
their mind?
We have to investigate the information but also their mind.
Today we start with the ‘dependent variable’: The mind of the public. Not complicated, but
complex.
1. What are opinions?
Wether it’s true or not does not matter. Factual or not, an opinion is an opinion. It’s a
truth for them. Something you believe in, and you can stand behind.
Stem from identities, reflect and underline identities.
a. Are a key element in contemporary “models” of political behavior
You cannot explain behavior without the opinion behind it
b. Assumption: Measuring opinions allow to predict (voting) behavior
Very rare to behave differently than your opinion.
Opinions and behaviors are associated.
i. Media obsession with opinions
ii. Political consultants as key players for politicians to “shape” behaviors
Historically, the focus on “opinions” is relatively recent. Last decades.
First halve of 20th century there was nearly no focus on opinions.
3 Subsequent models:
Different ways to understand voting behavior.
Each model tries to improve the last model
- Rational models
Also called economic model
Central element:
individual preferences
Simply rational, a way that people use to think about what’s in front of
them. When you have to choose between 70 yoghurts. You don’t think
avout all 70. You know what you like. Rational.
o Customer with simplified psychology but full information
We apply this all the time. But we can not simplify human behavior
and choises. Deciding to vote for A or B is not the same as choosing
what type of tea you want
o Able to chose among alternatives
o Driven by logic
o Stable “taste” and preferences
o If identical circumstances, identical choice
As long as AH keeps giving same tea, you keep buying same tea.
, o Egoistical and decides rationally
But: Full information is not realistic. You don’t have full info. You never
tasted all the tea flavors so you don’t know for sure which one you like the
best.
Emotions are not taken into account in this model. For example romantic
partners are not choosen by rational decisions.
BUT: these models are still being used for some parts. There is just more
now
- Socialogical models
Developped in the mid 40’s, early 50’s.
After WW||.
Historical impartance of political persuasion
individuals do not necessarily behave rationally.
People did not want to be horrible human beings during WW||. There is
something that pushed people to fear away from what they should have
done.
Trued to assess if propaganda works. First systematic effort to study
electoral behavior and campaigns.
First survey to represantive sample, longitudinal approach.
Suprising results: were unable to show propaganda works.
Showed that preferences almost stable in time, very little effect of political
communication. Focus on preferences was wrong.
Preferences are deep into your mind.
Key factor: individual values (brand loyalties) stable in time. The way that
you see the world as an human being.
Values:
Your environment shapes your values and political preferences. If you live
in the city you are more likely to be liberal
The reason why they are stable.
o Social class (socio-economic level)
o Religious affiliation
o Residence (urban vs rural)
Problem:
If you want to show the reason why there are fluctuations? You do a study to
show that preferences are stable and you find they fluctuate? How do you
explain the fluctuations if values are stable?
People don’t often change where they live etc. so background does not
change. We need to understand what the component is that changes?
This component is the opinions. Comes on top of your values and fluctuates.
Need for more encompassing model that takes into account:
, o The stable component of preferences (long term)
o The fluctuating component of preferences (short term effects)
o The effects of a changing context
- Socio-psychological models
Close to the model that we use nowadays.
From the 60s onwards
Builds on the premises of the Columbia model (importance of preferences
to shape behaviors)
Adds a psychological perspective to account for short-term fluctuations
Focus on three behavioral dispositions
(pieces in your mind, 3 pieces that click together that lead to your
behavior)
c. Values
Deep component from Columbia model
Most deep, closest to who that person is deep down, but we can go even
deeper.
Stable forces that anchor and guide our vision of the world and participate
who we are as individuals
(Brand loyalties Columbia model)
If you think deep down people need to be good with eachother, you would
have a very negative evaluation when people are fighting with each other as it
goes against your values.
If equality is a core of your being: you will be voting for parties that make
equality part of their program.
Stable forces that anchor and guide our vision of the wordn and participate to
who we are as individuals
Could be with the tea example: if your value is to buy organic tea.
If we would stop at values, things would be very simple. First two models.
d. Attitudes
Most complex, but stable(ish)
Preferences about specific aspects of our life
Example of tea; not a value. It’s a preference about something specific but it’s
relatively stable.
Deep affect towards X, like/dislike, beliefs.Relatively stable over a lifetime,
slow shifts
E.G>: party identifications, movies and music preferences, social attitudes.
Change very slowly but do change.
, Beliefs are mostly associated with attitudes, except for religious beliefs, those
are values.
e. Opinions
Most surface, fluctuates
Ideas and perecptions about specific objects
Nothing else than an opinion about something.
Potentially unstable, fluctuations. Tip of a very high building, often moves.
They come from somewhere, your base but are dependent on external and
contextual influences.
E.g.:
Support for POTUS at time, like/dislike for specific movies (opinions on a genre
are attitudes, on a specific movie is opinion).
Example: support before and after bush before and after 9/11. Values did not
change but context did change.
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