Contents
LES 1: Theorie 29/09/2023 ...................................................................................................................... 2
1. De Mesquita – Evalua ng Arguments about Interna onal Poli cs ................................................. 2
LES 2: Structureel realisme en zijn kri ek 05/10/2023 ........................................................................... 6
1. Waltz – Poli cal Structures & Anarchic Orders and Balances of Power .......................................... 6
2. Mearsheimer – The Tragedy of Great Power Poli cs .................................................................... 10
LES 3: Regime theorie (1) 12/10/2023 .................................................................................................. 18
1. Krasner – Structural Causes and Regime Consequences ............................................................... 18
2. Axelrod – Achieving Coopera on Under Anarchy ......................................................................... 24
LES 4: Construc visme 19/10/2023 ...................................................................................................... 25
1. Wendt – Anarchy is what States Make of it ................................................................................... 25
2. Leander – The Power to Construct Interna onal Security ............................................................ 27
LES 5: Marxisme/historisch materialism 26/10/2023 ........................................................................... 30
1. Wigger – Taking cri cal ontology seriously ................................................................................... 30
2. Wigger – Historic Materialism ....................................................................................................... 33
LES 6: 2 level games en afdwingbaarheid (2) ........................................................................................ 35
1. Kelemen – Trading Places: The Role of the United States and the European Union in
Interna onale Environmental Poli cs ............................................................................................... 35
2. Fearon – Bargaining, enforcement, and interna onal coopera on .............................................. 36
LES 7: Sanc es en naleving (3) 16/11/2023 .......................................................................................... 37
1. Drezner - Bargaining, Enforcement and Mul lateral Sanc ons: When is Coopera on
Counterproduc ve?........................................................................................................................... 37
2. Simmons - Compliance with Interna onal Agreements ............................................................... 41
LES 8: De zogenaamde democra sche vrede 23/11/2023 .................................................................... 44
1. Russe – The Fact of Democra c Peace & Why Democra c Peace? ............................................ 44
2. De Mesquita – An Ins tu onal Explana on of the Democra c Peace.......................................... 48
LES 9: Gastles: Feminism 07/12/2023 ................................................................................................... 50
1. Sjoberg – Feminist Perspec ves on Interna onal Rela ons.......................................................... 50
2. Parashar – The WPS Agenda: a postcolonial cri que .................................................................... 52
LES 10: Interna onale Milieusamenwerking 14/12/2023 ..................................................................... 53
1. De Bièvre – Interna onale samenwerking ter verhindering van globale opwarming................... 53
2. Nordhaus – The Climate Club: How to Fix a Failing Global Effort .................................................. 56
LES 11: Europese Integra e 21/12/2023 ............................................................................................... 57
1. Moravcsik – Preferences, Power and Ins tu ons in 21st-century Europe ..................................... 57
2. Eilstrup-Sangiovanni – Uneven Power and the Pursuit of Peace .................................................. 60
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,LES 1: Theorie 29/09/2023
1. De Mesquita – Evalua ng Arguments about Interna onal Poli cs
Theories provide prospec ve explana ons of reality => offer simplified representa ons of the facts that
collec vely make up what we think of as reality
Our understanding of arguments and evidence about interna onal rela ons depends both on facts and
theore cal perspec ve => an approach based strictly on facts is impossible/leads to an inaccurate view
of interna onal rela ons
Selec on of facts = shaped by the theories we carry around with us, how we interpret the facts is
shaped by that theore cal point of view
The explana on of any event depends significantly on which facts we choose to focus on and which
facts we choose to ignore
What is a theory
Theories are statements about the expected rela onships between variables. Expecta ons are formed
by linking some variables as causes or probabilis c contributors to other variables as consequences in
a series of logically connected arguments
The logical connec ons s pulate the rela onship between the variables (variables have more than one
value)
All theories include a dependent and independent variable. A dependent variable s something that we
hope to explain; an independent variable is something that we think will provide us with all or part of
the explana on of the different values taken on by the dependent variable
Dependent variable = effect, Independent variable = cause
For example: populist leaders are likely to influence how trading partners are perceived
- Independent: populist leaders
- Dependent: percep on of trading partners
Arms race theory p 53-54: rela onship between independent and dependent variables
The rela onships between independent and dependent variables implied by any theory cons tutes its
predic ons = hypotheses => they are empirical implica ons drawn from the theory’s logical
connec ons between variables
Predic ons serve as a way of tes ng a theory’s explana on, reliable explana on suggest that there is a
reliable predic on => accurate predic ons can be achieved even without a meaningful explana on,
and a meaningful explana on may lead only to limited predic ve accuracy
Construc ng theories
Every theory contains a set of assump ons = crucial building blocks, specify the group of simplifying
condi ons under which the theory is expected to be a helpful tool for explaining and predic ng the
phenomena with which it is concerned (example neorealism p55)
Assump ons describe the set of condi ons under which the theory’s predic ons are expected to hold
The more events or facts a theory can explain with a limited set of assump ons, the more useful the
theory will be (= parsimony)
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,Judging theories
Judgement of any theory revolves around its logical truth or falsity and whether its predic ons are
trivial or useful
The logical truthfulness of a theory is a ques on of consistency, meaning that no assump ons can
contradict others contained within the same theory
The importance of logical consistency
To judge a theory’s value: to evaluate whether its assump ons contradict each other
Predic ons that depend on logical contradic ons cannot be useful because, whatever is observed, the
opposite might just as easily be a predic on that can be defended using the same theory
Morgenthau: power as essen al determinant of how na ons relate to one another => lot of
contradic ons see p57-58 => conflicts between na ons reveal that not all na ons can be status quo
powers
Truth and falsity in assump ons
An assump on is a defining characteris c of a theory => a theory cannot exist outside of its
assump ons because it is the logical connec ons among the assump ons that imply the theory’s
predicted rela onships among variables
A true theory is one in which the predic ons follow logically from the assump ons, if the predic ons
do not follow from the assump ons, then we can say the theory is false (= theory with contradic ons)
= refers to the internal logic of the theory
= useful/trivial: (refers to the empirical value of the theory)
If the theory makes predic ons that reliably help us understand the phenomena that mo vated the
theory’s construc on, then the theory is useful
If the predic ons are irrelevant or excessively inaccurate with regard to the phenomena or interest,
then the theory is trivial when applied to the phenomena that mo vated its development
A set of assump ons Is true if the assump ons do not contradict one another and the predic ons
derived from the theory follow logically from the assump ons
The set of assump ons is useful if the assump ons lead to explana ons and predic ons that are
consistent with reality according to some stated criteria for evalua ng the theory’s empirical
performance
A single assump on cannot contradict itself, assump ons always leave something out, assump ons are
the vehicle through which theorists simplify
We can judge the value of assump ons only in terms of their output: what does it contribute to the
theory’s explana on and predic on of events
If an assump on provides many accurate predic ons, then it does not simplify reality too much. If it
does not provide many helpful and accurate predic ons, then it does simplify too much
Most common objec on to assump on is that it is not true in the sense that it is not realis c
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, When cri cs argue that an individual assump on is false, they are really saying that either they have
evidence that the implica ons or predic ons that depend on the assump on are false or they are
making an argument based on taste, their personal likes and dislikes
The first principle of wing-walking
Theories are expected to prevail as long as they outperform rival explana ons of the same phenomena,
eventually be er ideas come to prevail over inferior ones
Some mes theories, although capable of being proved false, can accommodate the discovery of some
contradictory evidence => they are judged to be false only if the body of contradictory evidence grows
large enough
Wing-walking: if you are out on the wing of an airplane in flight, don’t let go of what you are holding
on to unless you have something be er to hold on to, even then you may have to think twice about
le ng go
Knowing that something be er is available does not mean that the alterna ve is sufficiently
a rac ve that you will immediately want to make the switch, especially if there’s associated
risks or costs
We do not always strive to use the best tool because iden fying the best tool may be too costly, or
even if we know what tool to use, it may be too costly to learn how to use it.
The more convinced we are that we have an adequate alterna ve, the lower the costs have to be to
jus fy a switch in tools. If the stakes are large enough, and errors are expected to be sufficiently costly,
then we probably will spend the me and money to learn about a be er tool
The first principle of wing-walking forces us to pay a en on to the costs as well as to the benefits of
alterna ve ways of thinking about a problem, it encourages cau on in rejec ng theories
Whether assump ons are selected because of a bias or not does not ma er as long as the standard for
evalua ng the usefulness of assump ons is how well the theory performs in predic ng and explaining
events
The case study method and tes ng theories
The evalua on of a theory through the close scru ny of a single event and the associated details = case
study => can be helpful tools for developing ideas about a phenomenon or for shedding light on a
specific event, but when cases are selected because they are consistent with a par cular claim, they
are not a test of the accuracy of the claim
Also selec on bias in studies of interna onal poli cal economy (because they focus on regimes and
coopera on)
Whenever there is a regime present there is coopera on, but coopera on can also occur without a
regime => coopera on only occurs if a regime is present, conflict arises only if a regime is absent
Most theories make predic ons that are probabilis c
Probabilis c = based on or adapted to a theory of probability, subject to or involving chance varia on
When two theories make predic ons about the same phenomena or set of events, one is judged to be
be er than the other if it explains those facts accounted for by the rival theory plus some addi onal
facts not explained by the compe ng theory
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