World Politics
Course Notes February – May 2024
Professor: Jonathan Holslag
Each week includes:
- Lecture notes from slides and own handwritten notes
o Graphs and other relevant visuals from slides
- Readings summaries
- Reflections, takeaways, and conclusions
- Questions (if applicable)
Legend:
- Grey text: own research done to supplement information on slides. Not mentioned in class, but to provide
context/understanding of slides.
- Grey highlighting: on slides, but not discussed in class.
- **EXAM QUESTION**: to point out Holslag’s points of interest and specific exam-testables
- Bolded text: highly emphasised points/conclusions
Week 1 Introduction
Lecture:
1.1 Course Aims
To understand meaning and motivations of big actors
Deep understanding of major actors and context of key regions in world politics
Relate history, politics, economics, and strategy
Proficiency:
o Names, dates, etc. are all included as basic information
o We are to understand background from what’s given and enrich beyond with own
answers and knowledge
1.2 Set scene for upcoming semester:
Exceptional concentration of power in Western world is fading.
- West takes its prosperity for granted; believe rest of world should want to look like us
- Increasing normative divergence
Multipolarity
- =/= multilateral collaboration
- Reality:
o Regional interests and governance is increasing
o Competing interests
- Is actually a return to normal world order
o Long-term recalibration
Russia/Ukraine
- Unexpected blatant territorial invasion within Europe
, - Wrongly assumed Putin to be a rational actor
o E.g. even when amassing troops on the border, officials believed he wouldn’t dare launch
an attack
Pandemic
- Global impact
- Weaponised
- Divided access to responses/science along privileged lines
- Used for opportunistic political agendas
- “L’union fait la force” = unity makes strength, re: Belgian receival of masks from Chinese
foundations
Climate Change
- Exceptional “common threat” in contrast to individual responsibilities
Migration Flows
- Used as weapons
o Belarus, Turkey, etc.
o Bargaining chips for states
- Power politics over refugees and immigrants
- Refugee lives are considered cheap and useable
Global Terrorism
- Sahal Region
o Mali, Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Mauritania
o Opportunism
Independence in 1960s, poor economy and weak governments
US funds, and France help now, but unpopular in former colonies
Migration transit point
Climate change
o Power vacuums utilised by Islamic extremist groups (e.g. Islamic State in the Greater
Sahara) and criminal organisations attacking government forces and civilians
Increasingly cooperating amongst themselves
o Wagner Group
Russian mercenary organization
Replaced French aid/involvement
Under investigation by UN for potential war crimes in Mali
o Consecutive military coups
o Today, increasing violence and unrest, on brink of civil wars
- Extremism
- Terrorism today is more diffuse, has more global reach
Lethality
- Of weapons and wars, is growing
- Average blast radius size is increasing
o 1944 Little Boy to 1979 common Minuteman III missile to 2019 Russian Sarmat missile
, - Faster, and hypersonic
o Forces a rapid/impossible response time
- Complex weapon systems
o Different types of attacks used in tandem
Europeans and the EU
- EU continues to remain bold on autonomy and principles
- But cracks are showing
- Solidarity versus nationalism divide
- Economic protectionism
1.3 Today
- Deep globalisation
o Economic integration
o Stagnation in FDI shows complete integration
- Borders
o Increase in hardened borders, worldwide since around 1999
West, Africa, etc.
o Anti-migration sentiment, resentment, nationalism, xenophobia all causes
- Insecurity
o Idea that more trade (globalisation) and more democracies would make world more
secure, but not true as the number of ongoing conflicts continues to increase
o What does this mean?
- Radar types to symbolise international politics
o Fire-guidance radar focuses on target
Active when you know target
o Over-the-horizon radar has broad reach and beam
Scans horizon for unknown, emergent targets
o International politics requires combining both views to see big picture and then go in-
depth
o No one answer or clear conclusion
Difficult, contrary, non-dogmatic or formulaic
Insight is always limited
He invites challenge to find weaknesses in argument or perspective
(“ratteaming”) to strengthen perspectives
World Stability
- Driven by four factors (for Hogslag)
1. Changes in balance of power
o Creates misery
o China GDP grows far beyond south and West
2. Nature of growth
o Employment challenges
o Hyper-innovation
o Instability in global markets
3. Scarcity
, o Climate, food, resources
o Immense opportunities available with technology, but not done properly
E.g. new large technologies not practical to implement in poor regions who are
dependent on subsistence farming
o Tension between technological innovation and rate of implementation
4. Crisis of Humans
o With acceleration of technological growth, and a tendency to organise society around
technology rather than the other way around
We make tech and then use it, rather than make tech that we need to use
o Labour is less of an opportunity for self-fulfillment
The Return of Rude Power Politics
- Trump, Putin, but also economic powers like Alibaba is to China
1.4 Eurasian theme: East
- Rise of China
o To enlarge own influence and lessen that of
the West
o From a power shift to a power flux
Chart of rising power in
comparison to incumbent power
In GDP, industry, and
population
o Xi Jinping
Since 2013
Has revisionist views, fear-inducing to the USA
Great rejuvenation
Critical of US
Non-harmonious growth
Work and narrative: Less focused on market, and more on political
elements of stability, struggle, and security
o China historically and now idealises a harmonious order, but political science (realism)
focuses on how to avoid anarchical violence and chaos
3000 Year Empire Chart
Shows rise and fall of many leading
dynasty eras since 1600s
o Average historical size of Chinese empires were one quarter of
today’s PRC
Chinese “century of humiliation” caused a recent plane of anarchy and no leading
dynasty
Was a result of Europeans, warships, and opium
Xi has experienced this and deeply wants to avoid
But, COVID lockdown severity and length has hurt his legitimacy
- Kim and North Korea
o Missile capabilities
, o Further complicates global power balance
o Huge likelihood of wide nuclear proliferation amongst other middle powers
- Taiwan
o Refuses path of Hong Kong before it
o China is likely to incorporate Taiwan anyway
- Russian-Chinese relations
o Useful for support in Chinese attack on Taiwan
““In case of a war against Taiwan, we will need Russia’s pipelines
and railways, which are more difficult to hit by the United
States, and to be able to trade in different currencies. If we now
turn our back on Russia, it will stab a knife in our back in the
future” – Zhao Huasheng, 2022,
- Saudi Arabia
o Hedger country
o US and China both options on SA’s plate, strategic middle ground
- Turks
o Maritime surveillance and territory
o Similar situation to China
- Putin himself
o Powerful, unpredictable, unstable individual with global impact
1.5 Global South (from European Perspective)
- Commonality of poverty
- A lot of anger/resentment in response
o Inability of state to provide stability/prosperity
o And sometimes these conditions are cultivated by the state
Brokers of nationalism use to benefit themselves
o Most impacted by climate change
o Tension between demography and economy
“Africa Rising”
Historically, (2004-2014 trend) estimated positive growth
o In shambles now
Population rising whilst GDP is lowering
o Population in Africa, Middle East only region thought to
continue to rise
South and East Asia rising for now, but will lower. Rest
of World lowering
o And Lagos, for example, has 80% of the population wanting to
leave
- Creates second security dilemma
o First, West versus East
o Second, Middle East/South Europe security troubles from migration
Will only get uglier
To assume migration pressure can be held back in Norther Africa is unrealistic
Power vacuums and opportunists will continue to operate
1.6 West
, - US
o Still has good cards on the able, even though politicians themselves are lessening
legitimacy
Divided politically
- EU
o Poor position
Divided, low military capabilities, central (geographically) in many
conflicts/relations
Rapid changes
Fear is noticeable when a state goes into hiding/closes off
E.g. Fortress Europe
Readings:
None – Hogslag’s history book is optional
Reflections:
State of world is in flux: China’s rise is clear and steps in where US fails
Simultaneously, hyper-global connections and hyper-nationalist discourses rises.
Many challenges to democracy, including a lack of democracy after democracies strongly meddled
in/ruined the regions (Sahel and ME), all show that democracy is not, in fact a given.
Questions:
None
GENERAL POINT: **EXAM QUESTION** – Know where all countries discussed are on a map.
Week 2 The United States
Lecture:
US Democracy
- Checks and balances
o Picture of Nancy Pelosi and high-level executives quite literally yelling and pointing at
Trump
