CONTEMPORARY ISSUES IN
INTERNATIONAL POLITICS – SUMMARY
Prof. J. Holslag
Academic year 2019-2020
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, CLASS 1: THE PENDULUM
This class is about contemporary international relations and explains the most important
trends in world politics, important events, organizations, and persons. These important trends
might mean something different for different societies. This text encourages students to
engage in discussion and look for alternative points of view, it seeks to strengthen critical and
personal thinking.
This course is an in-depth exploration of the recent history of world politics: from the fall of
the Soviet Union until today. This period largely coincides with what has often been referred
to as the unipolar moment of the West, the high days of globalization, and the consequent
transformation towards a more multipolar order. (syllabus Canvas)
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1989: this was the beginning of the downfall of the Berlin Wall
Berlin Wall: erected by the Soviet Union to defend the eastern sector of Berlin against the
influence of the West
Iron Curtain:
- Initially: imaginary line between SU and the West. Symbolizes effort of SU to shield
itself and its satellite states from Western influence
- Later: physical barrier of fences, walls and watchtowers which divided the east from
the west
- Berlin Wall was part of this
- Fun fact: term became popular as a Cold War symbol after a speech of Churchill in
1946 (although already used by Goebbels in reference to the SU)
1990: the wall and the Iron Curtain between the SU and the West fell down.
à this was the starting point for the age of globalization
- Growing connectivity
- Advancing commerce
- Large economic growth
- Free trade and democracy
Globalization held opportunities to all:
- Emerging powers (China, South Korea, Vietnam, …): received access to the technology,
capital and consumer markets of rich, Western countries.
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, à in return, rich countries had easy access to cheap goods
- Africa, Latin America and the Middle East: growing exports of raw materials and
received (foreign) investment in their infrastructures
Specialization was brought about by the blooming trade à specialization brought more
economic growth to all countries
BUT: still security threats
à yet threats that demanded countries to cooperate
- Terrorism
- Pirates that threatened global shipping
- Criminals who penetrated digital networks of banks, multinationals and governments
- Climate change
Initial competition would be a peaceful contest for connectivity not conducted by states but
rather by multinational companies and technology start-ups
Noteworthy elements of globalization:
- Container ships were becoming more important than airplanes and seemed to shape
the fortune of the major powers
- Cross-border internet traffic increased rapidly
- Cheaper airlines
- People lived longer, less diseases
- Global economic production grew as well as prosperity of households
- Extreme poverty decreased
BARRIERS
30 years later: new walls in every region
à US – Mexico
- 13,000 km of walls and fences (ßà Berlin Wall: 155km, Iron Curtain: 6,800km)
MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT GLOBALIZATION
Nationalism never disappeared, trade thus did not erase borders and barriers as was
previously thought
- East: memories of wars and territorial disputes persisted and influenced trade
- Europe:
o Majority of citizens still associated themselves more as a national rather than
as a European citizen
o Nationalist parties
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,Democracy also did not significantly increase with the advent of globalization
- Statistics: 1990: 1/3 of world lived in democracy; 2019 also 1/3
- China and the Gulf refused to democratize despite close commercial ties with the
West
- Other large countries (Russia, Turkey, India): democracy weakened and got challenged
by strong authoritarian leaders (Putin, Erdogan, …)
- Latin America: support for democracy diminished steadily
- West: support remained high yet slightly declined, and citizens were increasingly
dissatisfied with how democracy worked in their country
The share of politically free countries also barely increased
- Statistics: 1990: 40%, 2019: 44%
The expectation that globalization, global trade and economic growth would ensure world
peace was not fulfilled.
IMPORTANT EVOLUTIONS
Economic globalization came to a halt:
- Statistics: trade as share of total world economic production peaked in 2008 with 31%
(ßà 19% 1990) and decreased slightly in 2019 (28%)
- World index of economic globalization grew from 1990s up until 2007 and fell flat
afterwards
- US – China
o US: defensive
o China: offensive
- Both cases: state asserted itself as the political guardian of economic interests
Increase of armed conflicts:
- Steady growth of world’s refugee population because of war and instability
o Statistics: 2003: 17 million, 2019: 70 million
- Global arms trade reached new records
Major geopolitical tensions resurfaced between close trading partners
“Has the pendulum started to swing back?”
- The future of globalization is uncertain
- How did it happen? + other questions
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, FORTUNE TURNED SAVAGE
Guiding question: How was the hope lost? The hope for a more benign world order?
The peace period between 1990 and 2019 was different because of globalization and the
recollection of common suffering and war
à Globalization is explained as the knitting of the world into a single community through
communication and commerce
There is no single explanation for this global setback à a combination of factors must be
taken into account
- Important element: the failure of politics and diplomacy to deal with complexity
1. HARMONY CONTESTED
Cautious: what looked like a golden age to some, remained a challenging time to many others
Developing countries perceived globalization as an economic order that disproportionately
favored the West
- Global economic harmony was actually a hierarchy
o Many countries wanted to grow more independently from the West
§ This trend also in EU: many citizens saw their purchasing power
decrease while the top 1% continued to thrive
§ US: satisfaction about the state of the country decreased continuously
2. POWER SHIFT
Profound power shift caused the world to back down into conflict positions
Power:
- The capacity to make the others do what they otherwise would not have done
- Possessing the economic, political, military, and moral weight to influence behavior
West: world’s center of power after collapse of the SU
à Many countries wanted to make part of its influence by becoming members of the EU,
NATO, international organizations, …
à This position weathered
Resulted in other powers contesting Western interests and created a defensive backlash in
Western capitals in return
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,Loss of power coincided with:
- Growing social distress
- Decline of the legitimacy of pragmatic politics
- Rise of nationalism
3. DECADENCE TRAP
Rise of China made conflict unavoidable
à BUT focus on China ignores the weakening of the West
West became complacent (zelfingenomen, conceited)
- Spent beyond their means on imported raw materials and consumer goods
- Wasted opportunities to preserve economic strength
- Piled up debt and made competitors rich
Power shift was followed by changes in morals, enlightenment, dignity, and civilization
“Civic engagement is the bedrock of state power”
4. MAKING AUTHORITARIANISM STRONG
Important consequence of consumerism: it made authoritarian countries much stronger
Examples:
- China
o Benefited from demand for cheap products
o Huge trade surplus, used for strategic purposes à lend money to Western
governments, invest in strategic infrastructure, buy technology, etc.
o China’s sterilization policy: the West had its influence undermined with its
“own” money
§ Sterilization: form of monetary action in which a central bank seeks to
limit the effect of inflows and outflows of capital on the money supply
® Designed to offset the effect of foreign exchange intervention
- Russia and the Gulf
o Consumerism was followed by growing imports of fossil fuel
§ EU: imports of gas which reinforced authoritarianism of Putin
§ Also helped authoritarianism of the Gulf
® Preserve their power and export radical Islamism abroad
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,5. HUBRIS
Crept into foreign policy à military technology and remote-control interventionism
à Assumption that governments’ obedience could be achieved by bombing and that
democracy could be installed by means of hard power and humanitarianism
Fortunes were spent on reckless military interventions (Iraq and Afghanistan)
“Hubris marked the interpretation of international cooperation”
à West expected other powers to become responsible stakeholders, subscribe to its rules
and liberalize
But other countries turned their back on the West’s double standards and decadency as soon
as they had the power to do so
6. SCHOOL OF STRIFE (CONFLICT, FRICTION)
The very fundaments of international politics would transform through positive learning by
other countries, yet this positive learning was replaced by negative socialization
- Interventionism: the weak still had to obey the strong
- Economic dependencies were exploited
- Sovereignty and power mattered
Negative socialization left a bigger imprint than the school of peace on the prospects of world
politics
7. NATURE OF POWER
Consider the economy
- Automation and digitalization allowed to produce more with less people
o Benefits were disproportionately skewed to those who possess capital
à Inequality grew
- The gap between the growth of economic production and employment/purchasing
power grew
- Pressure to work harder increased
- Growth-wellbeing gap led to social anxiety
- Breach between the solutions science tried to find to challenges like climate change
and the extent to which these solutions were implemented
o For all technological possibilities, pollution grew fast, precious resources were
exhausted, famine still very much present in the world
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,8. THE LIMITS OF LEARNING
There was knowledge but societies were reluctant to let it shape their decisions
Many of the challenges/global problems were identified at an early stage, yet response
remained either slow or absent altogether
Examples of challenges:
- Erosion of society in the West
- Neglect of education
- Low civic engagement
- Destabilizing inequality
- Dangers of excessive speculation and the ignoring of investment in key infrastructure
- Foreign policy objectives
- West was making dictators rich, making them in turn more opposed to Western values
- Environment
o Global warming would cause more insecurity
o Polluting consumerism was just as much detrimental to the strength of
Western economies in the long run
STRUCTURE OF THE BOOK/COURSE
10 chapters
- First chapters: the West and the world at the very moment the SU collapsed
- Next 2 chapters: world politics between the end of the Cold War and the turn of the
century
o Period during which West was vocal about liberal values, yet lacked the
commitment to promote them
o Many seeds of Western weakening and resistance in other countries
- Following 3 chapters: period between 2000 and 2009
o Period that fell in between 2 important economic crises and limited signs that
the West had learned from these setbacks or learned lessons from the internal
weaknesses from the 90s
- Final chapters: period between 2010 and 2019
o More resistance to Western power
o Global order started to shatter
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