Class notes
Intelligence Failures Lecture Notes (Lectures 1-6) - GRADE 8,0
- Course
- Institution
Notes on the lectures from the course (2023) Intelligence Failures. INCLUDES notes from lectures 1-6 (Total: 12 pages).
[Show more]
Seller
Follow
giacomoef
Reviews received
Content preview
Notes on the lectures from the course (2023) Intelligence Failures. INCLUDES notes from lectures 1-6(Total: 12 pages).
Intelligence Failures Lecture Notes (Lectures 1-6)
Table of Contents
Lecture 1: Introduction 1
Lecture 2: Warning Problems - Diagnosing Intelligence Failures 3
Lecture 3: Step 2 - Warning Scenario 5
Lecture 4: Step 3 - Critical Indicator 7
Lecture 5: Step 4 - The Intelligence Collection Plan 9
Lecture 6: Alternative System 10
, 1
Lecture 1: Introduction
Introduction on Warning
Indicator & Warning: Basic model of indicator-based intelligence for a warning analysis.
Intelligence’s purpose:
● Warning is a fundamental reason for intelligence activity.
● Aim = prevent a threat from coming to fruition.
● Why do we warn?
○ Provide early warning of potential threats by an in-depth study of a developing
situation.
○ Inform consumers/decision-makers of future developments in time to take action.
○ Reduce the effects of adverse developments.
What causes an intelligence failure?
1. Primary cause = lack of intelligence.
➔ Tasking too limited (e.g., UK/Iraq).
➔ Special means of collection are inadequately used (e.g., NL/Srebrenica).
➔ Events NOT planned.
➔ Encryption, one-time pads (e.g., Pearl Harbour attack).
2. Failure to correctly interpret the upcoming events:
a. Failure to connect the dots.
b. Unavailability of information.
c. Overestimation.
d. Mirror-Imaging: Analysts may perceive/process information through the filter of
personal experience, undermining objectivity.
e. Lack of communication.
f. Overconfidence.
g. Complacency (e.g., Falklands War).
h. Conventional wisdom.
i. Underestimation: Through national/cultural biases (e.g., ignorance, arrogance,
prejudice, ethnocentricity).
➔ Worst case scenario NOT developed, NO accurate critical indicators or a
misinterpretation of critical indicators.
j. Subordination to policy.
3. Failure to evaluate the existing intelligence in time (e.g., overload problem).
➔ Causes:
◆ Encryption = takes too long.
◆ Overload = too much information.
◆ Translation (e.g., fast evolution of the Tuareg language).
◆ Sources in enemy territory CANNOT be reached.
➔ Timeliness = easier to get insight into the long-term aims, BUT harder to gain good
insights into short-term aims.
➔ Level = easier to get insight on the strategic level, BUT harder to gain insight on the
operational & tactical level.
, 2
➔ When could it happen?
◆ Cry wolf mechanism.
◆ Intelligence is filtered by ‘noise barriers’ (e.g., enemy, international
environment).
◆ Self-Generated Noise: When policymakers are NOT able to adjust their
expectations about a party’s intentions & capabilities on the basis of reality.
◆ ‘Sheer Nerve Scenario’: Opponent will NOT have the ‘sheer nerve’ to
conduct an attack.
Intelligence cycle = an intelligence failure is rarely due to 1 single cause.
Warning: Can be associated with 5 possible aspects:
1. Hit: A warning is given + event happens.
2. Miss: NO warning given + event happens (e.g., poor weather on Normandy Beach landing in
WWII).
3. False Alarm: A warning is given, BUT the event does NOT happen.
4. Correct Rejection: A negative warning [or NO warning] is given & the event does NOT
happen (e.g., Nazi Germany was NOT capable anymore of producing nuclear weapons).
➔ Saves resources from being spent.
5. Success: A warning is given + event does NOT happen by intelligence-based intervention.
How to deal with warning issues?
● Analytical methods.
● Based on methodology.
● Methodological insight in the method used.
Explanatory research:
➔ Characteristics & demands:
◆ Alpha (α): Chance that you incorrectly conclude that there is a significant
relationship between phenomena.
● Social sciences 5%.
● Intelligence 10-90% depending on the issue at hand.
◆ Beta (β): Chance that you do NOT discover a relationship between phenomena.
● Social sciences 20%.
● Intelligence 0.01-5% depending on the issue at hand.
◆ Analytical accuracy: Degree of closeness/agreement of the assessed course of action
to its actual (true) course of action.
● E.g., a broken watch with the right time twice a day.
◆ Analytical Confidence: Probability/certainty that the actual (true) course of action
will be covered by a described variation of the assessed course of action.
● E.g., a broken watch with the actual time within a 6-hour margin of error.
➔ Warning methods always have issues of α & β reduction. Emphasis depends on the RQ &
release process’ phase:
● Warning problem = to NOT miss a threat → reduction β.
● Critical indicators = if a scenario is unfolding → reduction α Overall.
The benefits of buying summaries with Stuvia:
Guaranteed quality through customer reviews
Stuvia customers have reviewed more than 700,000 summaries. This how you know that you are buying the best documents.
Quick and easy check-out
You can quickly pay through credit card or Stuvia-credit for the summaries. There is no membership needed.
Focus on what matters
Your fellow students write the study notes themselves, which is why the documents are always reliable and up-to-date. This ensures you quickly get to the core!
Frequently asked questions
What do I get when I buy this document?
You get a PDF, available immediately after your purchase. The purchased document is accessible anytime, anywhere and indefinitely through your profile.
Satisfaction guarantee: how does it work?
Our satisfaction guarantee ensures that you always find a study document that suits you well. You fill out a form, and our customer service team takes care of the rest.
Who am I buying these notes from?
Stuvia is a marketplace, so you are not buying this document from us, but from seller giacomoef. Stuvia facilitates payment to the seller.
Will I be stuck with a subscription?
No, you only buy these notes for CA$7.63. You're not tied to anything after your purchase.
Can Stuvia be trusted?
4.6 stars on Google & Trustpilot (+1000 reviews)
79650 documents were sold in the last 30 days
Founded in 2010, the go-to place to buy study notes for 14 years now