Class notes

Probability and Decision Analytics

39 views 0 purchase

Course
MGSC 660

Institution
McGill University (Mcgillu)

These notes provide a detailed introduction to probability, It covers conditional probability, joint probability, solving probabilities through multiplication and addition rules. with examples. It also covers decision trees, both one stage decision trees and multi staged decision trees, with exampl...

[Show more]

Preview 4 out of 36 pages

View example

Uploaded on August 1, 2024
Number of pages 36
Written in 2024/2025
Type Class notes
Professor(s) Mehmet gumus
Contains All classes

CA$20.56

Added

Add to cart Add to wishlist

100% satisfaction guarantee
Immediately available after payment
Both online and in PDF
No strings attached

, Basics
Probability

>
-
probability :

>
-
Likelihood or chance that a particular event will occur -

> is
proportion fraction whose value from O to
I
a or
ranges
-

↳ an event that has no chance of
occurring has a
probability of
o

↳ while an event that is sure to occur has
probability of 1

about information the
probability of event
might differ
probability
>
-

. an
is

available into that
from person to person based on the
they have
↳ that events will into
the
probability occur
may change as -
accrues

or evolves
.

3 Bask components of
probability theorem :

Experiment

2) Elementary outcome

3) sample space (S)

1) Experiment
>
-

any process that produces a
single outcome whose result cannot be

predicted with
certainty
.

i) rolling a die

card draw
ii) A 3 .

,2) Elementary outcomes

outcome of experiment
unique
> a an
-

2
elementary outcomes
mutually exclusive
>
are
-

i) rolling 3 die loss
a in a
single

ii) picking an ace of spades
.

Event
3)
set of of interest
>
elementary outcomes
-

I) one or more heads in a 2 coin toss

ii) the sum of dices is greater than 7
.

7) sample space (s)

>
-
set of all possible elementary outcomes of an experiment

(Mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive) .

consists of from a box
Example : an experiment drawing one marble

of
that contains a mixture red , yellow and green marbles

>
-

sample space-s = [red ,
yellow ,
green 3
↳ unique color combinations
.

, suppose you are
only interested in the no , of red marbles drawn :

S = 20 .
13

↓ Y
of
outcomes
drawing
outcomes of
red
.

drawing yellow
and
green

R 72

R OR RY RG

YR Y +G
Y

GR GY GG
E

i) S :
Err , ry , ug ,
yr , yy ,
yg ,
gr , gy , gg
3

ii) S = 30 ,
1
,
23

The benefits of buying summaries with Stuvia:

Guaranteed quality through customer reviews

Stuvia customers have reviewed more than 700,000 summaries. This how you know that you are buying the best documents.

Quick and easy check-out

You can quickly pay through credit card or Stuvia-credit for the summaries. There is no membership needed.

Focus on what matters

Your fellow students write the study notes themselves, which is why the documents are always reliable and up-to-date. This ensures you quickly get to the core!

Frequently asked questions

What do I get when I buy this document?

You get a PDF, available immediately after your purchase. The purchased document is accessible anytime, anywhere and indefinitely through your profile.

Satisfaction guarantee: how does it work?

Our satisfaction guarantee ensures that you always find a study document that suits you well. You fill out a form, and our customer service team takes care of the rest.

Who am I buying these notes from?

Stuvia is a marketplace, so you are not buying this document from us, but from seller hamzaasadjaved. Stuvia facilitates payment to the seller.

Will I be stuck with a subscription?

No, you only buy these notes for CA$20.56. You're not tied to anything after your purchase.

Can Stuvia be trusted?

4.6 stars on Google & Trustpilot (+1000 reviews)

84866 documents were sold in the last 30 days

Founded in 2010, the go-to place to buy study notes for 14 years now

Start selling