1945 Salisbury Convention Lords cannot oppose A bill in the Manifesto The Change
election • The General Election of 1997 was, what is sometimes referred to as, a
change election. o A change election exists when a period associated with the dominance of
one party ends and a new period begins (such as 1945, 1979 or 1997). o There was not just
a minor shift between parties but a landslide victory for Labour. How many seats did labour
gain in 1997 146 BUT WON 418!!!!! 43% of vote share 91 seat majority Changes blair
made to the labour party In 1995 the party abandoned Clause IV of its constitution
committing the party to socialist policies of common ownership. o Instead the party
positioned itself much more in the centre of the political spectrum and distanced itself from
its more left-wing history and from the trade union movement. o A number of figures from the
left of the party found themselves marginalised (such as future leader Jeremy Corbyn).
Policy promises Blair made in 1997 Election • Cut NHS waiting lists by treating an extra
100,000 patients (as first step by releasing £100 million saved from NHS red tape) • Get
250,000 under-25 year-olds off benefit and into work (by using money from a windfall levy on
the privatised utilities) • No rise in income tax rates (cut VAT on heating to 5% and inflation
and interest rates as low as possible). • proposals for constitutional reform, such as Lords
reform, • a freedom of information act, referendums on devolution to Scotland and Wales, •
whether to change the voting system. This helped to give the campaign a sense of
radicalism while remaining firmly in the political centre ground on economic and social
issues. Blair speaking about Major in 90s "I lead my party; he follows his" Problems with
conservative campaign in 1997 election financial scandals, such as the "Cash for
Questions" affair, where two Conservative backbenchers were alleged to have accepted
payments via a lobbyist, in return for asking questions in the House of Commons. • A
perception that the Conservative Party was weak, divided, sleazy and corrupt certainly
contributed to the election result. • Not much is remembered of the Conservative Party
manifesto of 1997. While John Major described it as "bold" and "far-reaching" there were few
eye-catching policies • the most eye-catching policy was probably a tax allowance proposal
to encourage traditional nuclear families o only contributed to a sense that the Conservative
Party in 1997 did not represent where the UK was. Role of Media in 1997 election and
evaluation • Blair made a conscious decision to court The Sun's notorious owner, Rupert
Murdoch. o After meeting him, he won the prize: The Sun decided to back Labour in the
1997 election, while another of Murdoch's traditionally-conservative papers, The Times,
chose not to back either party, but was more positive about Labour than the Conservatives. •
Some argue that the impact of the Sun might be overstated. The paper has backed the
winning party in every UK general election since the 1970s. o It had been a Labour paper
until famously switching to the Conservatives in 1979. o However, it could be argued that the
Sun is just good at predicting election results and backing winners. It is not clear that their
backing actually has that big an impact on the final result. o 2010 is sometimes presented as
an exception to the Sun's power over election results, as Cameron failed to win a majority,
despite the Sun having loudly switched support back from Labour to the Conservatives. spin
doctors in 1997 election • significant factor in the 1997 General Election was the impact
of spin doctors. • New Labour approached the press in a new way, trying to manipulate the
press and the television news o The key figure on the Labour side who performed this role
was Alistair Campbell. o Campbell and other figures like Peter Mandelson, carefully courted
journalists and editors and ensured that they got stories ready-packaged that would put
across the message of the day. o between 1994 and 1997, journalists were wooed, flattered
and rewarded with access, interviews and good stories. Mondeo Man • Mondeo Man
was Tony Blair's idea of the sort of person who had to switch from Conservative to Labour in
,order for Labour to win in 1997. He was in his 30s, married, owned his home
(semi-detached), lived in the South East and drove a Ford Mondeo. • Psephologists also talk
about C1s - the aspirational lower middle class. These were identified as swing voters (and
also often lived in marginal seats) and New Labour targeted them pretty ruthlessly and
effectively. Evidence of Class voting in 1997 election 41% of ABs voted Conservative
(compared with 31% Labour) 50% of C2s and 59% of DEs voted Labour, compared with
27% and 21% respectively for the Tories. 1911 Parliament Act Lords can't delay money
bills and power of veto replaced by 2 year delay 1945 Parliament Act Delay changed to
one year "The House of Lords is like a glass of champagne that has stood for five days"
Clement Atlee Example of how parliament can't be bound by past government Repealed
the 1988 local government act which made it illegal to promote homosexuality in school
Magna Carta (1215) Nobody deprived of liberty without law process Bill of Rights (1689)
Regular parliament, free elections, free speech in parliament Act of Union (1707)
England and Scotland in Westminister European Communities Act 1972 Britain into EEC
making EU law president over UK The Levison Enquiry Established an independant
press standard organisation after Rupert Murdoch News Of the World phone hacking
scandal (2011) How many watched the ITV PM debates in 2010 9.6m How many watched
the TV debates in 2017 3.5m What % of the young rely totally on online information
79% How much did the conservatives spend a month on Facebook ads in 2015 £100,000
% voted for Brexit without a uni degree 74 % voted against Brexit with a uni degree 26
% of ethnic minorities voted for Labour in 2010 Over 66 % of ethnic minorities voted for
Con in 2010 16 Turnout in NI in 2017 65 % of Liverpool Walton that voted Labour in
2017 85.7 % over 65s voted in 2010 76 % 18-24 voted in 2010 44 % people voted
for con and lab in 1979 81 % people voted for con and lab in 2010 65 % of people
vote who own a home74 (63% in 2017 of population - Guardian) % of people vote who don't
own a home 55 When did class stop being the biggest factor? 1970's Age in the 2017
election 60% of 18-24 Labour 61% of 64+ con % of ethnic minorities who voted lab in
gen election 65 Cost of the confidence and supply agreement with DUP £1B Conservative
seats in 2017 election 317 Labour seats in the 2017 election 262 How many seats did
the conservatives gain in 1979 63 Winter of Discontent 1978-79 What was Black
Wednesday? Collapse in the pound sterling forced Britain to withdraw from the European
Exchange Rate Mechanism (1992) When was the Electoral Commission set up? 2001,
result of a 2000 Act Referendum with a close result Brexit Remain: 48.1% Leave: 51.9%
Referendum with a low turnout 2011 extension for powers for Welsh assembly turnout
35.6% Referndum with a clear result Should there be a Scottish Parliament 74% yes (1997)
Referendum that caused conflict 62% Scottish voters voted remain Referendum with a
high turnout NI Good Friday Agreement 1998 81% turnout How many people voted for
smaller parties in 2015 1/4 Policy introduced in Scotland in Scotland Labour, LIb Dem
coalition no tuition fees (2008), elderly recieve free nursing care (2002), abolish
prescription charges (2011) 2015 Recall of MPs Act Bi election if MP sentenced to custody
and 10% const sign recall petition What electoral system was Sadiq Khan elected on SV
Supplementary Vote (SV) This is a majoritarian system. The voter makes two choices
(hence the term 'supplementary'). If one candidate obtains over 50% on the first vote then
the contest is complete, if no candidate attains this level, all but the top two candidates
remain. Then the supplementary choices are re-distributed and whoever gets most votes
from the remaining two, wins the seat. Where is SV used? • Elections for mayor of London •
Elections for other elected mayors in england and wales (16 cities in England, none in
wales) • Elections for the police and crime commissioners. (spectacularly low turnout of 20%
, so pretty irrelevant. Classic example of voter fatigue) Strengths of SV The winning
candidate must have a broad 50% of support across the electorate It eliminates the risks
under AV of 3rd choice minor parties sneaking in as this system only looks at the top 2
candidates. It works. The Supplementary is used widely in the UK and across Europe. It
gives a strong mandate like FPTP and has a majoritarian aspect of AV weakness of SV The
winner as shown by Boris in 2008 might not be the most popular 2nd choice but gets through
because no one got as many 1st choice votes. Even if we used this in the general elections
it would not deliver a fair result. In fact it would further exaggerate the majorities that parties
get. It is deeply punishing to minor parties such as the Greens and UKIP whose 2nd
preference status is essentially ignored. Example of Voter Fatigue Police and crime
commissioner: turnout averages at 20% Droop formula Quota used in STV Single
Transferable Vote (STV) electoral system in which voters rank candidates and the
winners' surplus votes are reallocated to other STV is used in... devolved elections in
Northern Irish Assembly Northern Irish assembly 17 constituencies, each returning 6
members Advantages of STVProportional and fair Majority party Range in candidates (inc
from same parties and more opportunity for independents) Disadvantages of STVLess
accurate in translating votes Large multi-member constituencies weaken the link between
individual MPs and their constituency Coalition gov = likely The counting process is lengthy
and complex. First past the post An electoral system in which individual candidates
compete in single member districts; voters choose between candidates and the candidate
with the largest share of the vote wins the seat. strengths of FPTP Strong link between MP
and constituency (geographical representation, everybody is represented) Favours single
majority leading to govt with a clear mandate. Facilitates easier law-passing Strong majority
governments most often Encourages "broad-church" centrist policies Simple to understand
Difficult for smaller parties to break support Weaknesses of FPTP Disproportionality in terms
of votes won and seats gained (Labour 1951/ Conservative's 1974/ UKIP 2015) Tactical
voting: voting against rather than for (the enemy of your enemy becomes your friend) Safe
seats disenfranchise voters Difficult for smaller parties to break support Votes not of equal
value (in swing constituencies or battle grounds, votes are worth more because they dictate
the results rather than safe seats) House of commons doesn't reflect political balance of
whole electorate Alternative vote (AV) a candidate-centered preference voting system
used in single-member districts where voters rank order the candidates. A candidate who
receives an absolute majority is elected. If no candidate wins an absolute majority, then the
candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their votes are reallocated until one
candidate has an absolute majority of the valid votes remaining AV is used in... • Elect the
majority of chairs of select committees in the house of commons • The election of the lord
speaker • By elections for hereditary peers. AV strengths Every Candidate elected has
50% of the constituents voting for them. The elected candidate is broadly popular with all
members of a constituency, not just a chosen majority It still keeps the MP and constituency
link favoured under FPTP It works. It has been used in Australian General Elections since
1924. AV weaknessesIt isn't a proportional system. If used on the 1997 general election
result it would have given labour an even bigger majority 77% of seats. The candidate with
the most 1st preference votes isn't guaranteed victory There is a small chance that extreme
fourth and fifth choice candidate and voters may hold the balance of power. Electoral reform
society on AV "AV is the best way to elect a single person, like a president or mayor, but it's
a flawed way to elect a parliament as it isn't proportional" The Jenkins commission 1997
Govt sets down four criteria for elections: 1. Needs to be broadly proportional and needs
more of it. 2. Extension of voter choice 3. Stable government 4. Strong constituency link
