Historical Approaches to Assessing Risk of Recidivism;
- First half of the 20th century recidivism risk was very much in the hands of prison and
probation staff, and clinical professionals
- Assessments of risk were made based on professional judgement and experience
- Towards the 1970’s there was a need for evidence-based science over professional
judgements
- Risk scales started being used with list of risk items and offenders scored 1 for each
factor present
- The scales were much better at predicting recidivism than clinical judgements were
- However, these scales were largely theoretical, chosen because the items were easy
to collect
- And focused entirely on static items- which means once you have a risk factor you
can’t change your score even if you change as a person
- In the 80’s, dynamic factors started appearing on scales E.g., family, friends,
employment
- And some items were even theoretically relevant
- Now however, we use the Risk-Needs-Responsivity model, which builds on existing
research, theory, and meta-analyses
The Risk-Needs-Responsivity Model;
- First formulated by Andrews, Bonta, and Hoge (1990)
- Developed with the aim to reduce recidivism in high-risk offenders, focusing on
criminogenic needs, delivered using methods and styles which offenders will respond
to
- Risk > needs> responsivity
Risk;
- Treatment should be offered to offenders at the highest risk of reoffending
- Produces larger decrease in recidivism than it does for lower risk individuals
- (And actually some lower risk individuals leave treatment at higher risk as they learn
antisocial behaviour from the higher risk offenders)
- Two main parts:
- 1) Prediction: assessing each individuals likelihood to reoffend
- 2) Matching: matching the intensity of intervention to the level of risk
- We use the static/dynamic Offender Assessment System (OASys)
- Four main components:
- 1) Analysis of offending-related factors
- 2) A risk of harm analysis
- 3) Summary Sheet
- 4) Sentence plan
- Based on the Level of Service Inventory-Revised
- Info on the OASys is quite restricted so we’ll be using the
10 LSI-R principles for our assessment!
- Examples of all questions asked are on blackboard
- Low risk: 0-15/Medium risk: 16-22/High risk: 23+
- For the assessment we’ll be using a simplified assessment (in W5)
, Needs:
- Treatment needs to target a range of issues that when changed, reduce recidivism =
criminogenic needs
- 8 issues developed by Andrews et al., (2006)
- Hx of antisocial behaviour
- Antisocial personality features
- Antisocial cognition
- Antisocial associates
- Family/relationship problems
- School and/or work
- Leisure time
- Substance abuse
Responsivity:
- Made up of two types of responsivities
- General responsivity: only effective
treatments should be used
- Specific responsivity: programmes should be
delivered to suit specific characteristics of recipients
Rehabilitation;
- In the 50’s-60’s (limited) studies showed treatment reduced reoffending about 50%
of the time
- Very positive outlook on “curing” prisoners
- 70s- Lipton et al., (1975) & Martinson (1974) concluded that treatment was useless,
and nothing worked on offenders
- Default became harsh punishments and deterrence
- However, since then prison populations worldwide have sky-rocketed and
deterrence doesn’t seem to have an effect on recidivism (e.g., Andrews & Bonta,
2006; Pratt & Cullen, 2005).
- But using RNR principles DOES have an effect on recidivism
RNR rehabilitations – risk;
- Andrews and Bonta (2006)- For high-risk offenders, there was on average 10%
recidivism rate, for low-risk it was only 3%
- Therefore, key to correctly identify high vs low, or it could be
wasted resources
- Also as mentioned- some low-risk offenders can learn antisocial
habits if placed incorrectly-
- Bonta, Wallace-Capretta & Rooney (2000): low-risk offenders
who received minimal treatment had recidivism rate of 15% but
low-risk offenders who received intensive treatment had a 32%
rate
- For comparison, high-risk offenders who received no treatment
had 51% rate, but those who received intensive treatment had
32% rate
RNR & Rehabilitation;
- Combining all three aspects of RNR model gives about a
23% difference in recidivism (Andrews & Bonta, 2006)
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