Advise the UK Government on which Primary Energy Resources would be best to develop
over the next 20 years
Introduction
In deciding on the future energy mix of the UK, the government’s main concern is
developing primary energy sources that will allow the UK to have energy security. This is
de ined by ‘the provision of reasonably priced, reliable and environmentally-friendly energy’
and consequently to ful il these terms the best primary sources will be those that are cheap,
constant and have a small environmental footprint. Further to this, a key factor in assuring
energy security is in developing a diverse energy mix in order to reduce dependency on one
source that could potentially be threatened, for example due to geopolitics. Without energy
security, our energy-dependent lifestyle would be threatened as shown by peaks in oil
prices as in the summer of 2008.
Additionally, the need to assure energy security is made more critical with increasing global
energy demands, which are such that there will be a 40% increase by 2030. Alongside this is
the inite nature of fossil fuels, on which we are heavily dependent in addition to rapid
population growth in the developing world—which is where 87% of this rising energy
demand is predicted to occur. Demonstrating these global trends on a smaller scale, the UK
is running of out energy and as a result will see black outs in 10 years time unless there is
major investment in power plants. Therefore, it is clear that there is no future for the
business as usual’ approach that will ultimately lead to devastating economic crises, climate
change and social unrest as already seen in the instability of the middle east which many
would attribute to resulting from its importance as an oil exporter. In spite of this, there are
many issues with alternative energy sources that mean they are unable to meet the criteria
de ined by the term ‘energy security’ and further issues arise with renewables, which
although more environmentally friendly are often highly dependent on the geography of a
region or country.
In order to determine the best primary energy sources to develop over the next 20 years it is
necessary to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of each potential energy sources
following the criteria of the energy security de inition.
Non-Renewable Sources: Coal
Coal is a ‘dirty’ fuel, producing double the carbon dioxide that natural gas does when
burned. It is a inite resource but the UK has large reserves so prices are rising more slowly
than gas and oil prices. It is both cheap and very reliable and therefore clearly meets most of
the energy security requirements excluding its environmental impacts. In this respect high
carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide—which causes acid rain— pose a great problem despite
the fact that emissions of the latter have fallen rapidly over the last twenty years. Further to
this, although coal is currently cheap, in 10-15 years it will run out, putting pressure on
inding an equally cheap and reliable alternative. The growth in demand in the developing
world is shown by China building 2 coal ired power stations a week for the last two years,
contributing massively to the enhanced greenhouse effect. While carbon capture and
storage (CCS) provides an opportunity for reducing the environmental impact of coal, it is
still in its infancy and current plants may be forced to closed to meet EU pollution
regulations if they can’t green up. Overall, in my opinion we need to dramatically reduce or
end altogether our dependency on coal due to the fact that its is currently so
environmentally damaging.
Crude Oil
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, The fossil fuel source of oil is very vulnerable to political instability and consequently is not
consistent in spite of reliable technology. For example, the recent Arab spring con lict in
Libya meant that there were no exports of oil and this greatly affected prices. As shown by
the peak in the price of oil in summer 2008 when it reached $147 per barrel, high fuel costs
are passed onto food as well as resulting in depressing consumer demand. Moreover, many
think that we have nearly reached ‘Peak Oil’—the maximum production of oil—and it is
unknown what will happen to reserves when we reach that point but massive price
increases are predicted. There is also the issue of resource nationalism with oil and the
OPEC cartel that has made accessing oil more and more dif icult and expensive for the
‘developed north’. Oil, like all fossil fuels produces huge quantities of carbon dioxide,
therefore contributing to the enhanced greenhouse effect that will have devastating
environmental impacts.
The BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill (April 2010)—the biggest offshore spill in US history—
caused an explosion that killed 11 workers and a spill covering 1,000 miles of shoreline.
This resulted in disastrous ecological impact: more than 6000 birds were killed, 600 sea
turtles and 100 dolphins and led to BP being ined over $12 billion by the US government.
As well as having the potential to cause major environmental disasters such as BP oil spill,
oil is vulnerable to pirates—in 2010 Somalian pirates captured 41 oil tankers off the horn of
Africa. Finally, big oil TNCs are keen to extract oil from fragile wilderness areas such as
Alaska and the Amazon rainforest—in my opinion such areas should be heavily protected in
order to conserve their biodiversity and environmental importance.
For these reasons I think that, as with coal, we need to greatly reduce our dependence on oil
as a fuel because it will not meet the requirements of energy securing in the future. Due to
its inite nature, oil prices are expected to rise and it cannot be considered as an affordable
source; it is unreliable due to its vulnerability to geopolitics and its inite nature and inally
it is not environmentally friendly because of its contribution to the enhanced greenhouse
effect and potential for oil spills. Despite this, global demand for oil is 85 million barrels a
day and therefore developing alternative vehicle fuel sources needs to be a priority in order
to meet the demand when peak oil is reached.
Natural Gas
Natural gas is the most successful out of the three major fossil fuels at meet the criteria of
energy security being very cheap, reliable and much cleaner than coal. Despite the lower
emissions, natural gas emissions still make considerable contributions to the enhanced
greenhouse effect. As with other inite resources, domestic reserves are running out, which
will lead to increasing dependency on imports and consequently greater vulnerability to
price luctuations and instability.
However, there is also a major opportunity with the shale gas fracking technique that has
proven so successful in the USA, having resulted in a 25% increase in natural gas production
over the last ive years. This has led to predictions by the IEA (International Energy Agency)
that America will surpass Saudia Arabia to become the world’s single greatest producer of
oil and gas by 2020 and consequently leading them towards energy independence—
something that is a very attractive prospect for the UK and which has resulted in test drilling
in attempts to replicate the USA’s fracking success. However, fracking—which involves
injecting a high-pressure mixture of sand, water and chemicals into rock to release gas
inside—is a very controversial issue due to the environmental impacts associated with the
process. As this process requires large quantities of water, there are concerns over its
transportation and the resulting pollution in addition to risks of groundwater
contamination. There is also some evidence to suggest the process can cause seismic
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