With the aid of a case study of a hazardous environment, assess how prediction and
preparedness can reduce the impact of the hazard(s) on lives and property. [20]
Mass movements have caused a great deal of damage and posed a threat to people in
different vulnerable areas over the centuries, claiming many lives, causing injuries and
socio-economic disruption as well. Forecasting these events and trying to mitigate them as
best as possible, including getting people ready for them in advance, can make a huge
difference to the impacts these hazards have on lives and property. This essay will assess
how the authorities of Ladakh have tried to reduce the impacts of the landslides in the region
through preventative measures, prediction and preparation.
Ladakh is a region in northern India which constitutes a part of the larger Kashmir region. It
is bordered by the Tibet Autonomous Region to the east, Himachal Pradesh to the south,
both Indian territories Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistan territory Gilgit-Baltistan to the west,
and the southwest corner of Xinjiang in the far north. It has an arid climate, due to the high
elevation areas of the Himalaya to the south and the Karakoram mountain range to the
north, which act as orographic barriers. On average it has 41mm of precipitation between
June and September, and 53mm between October and May. This means that the hill slopes
of the Ladakh Range are sparsely vegetated by small shrubs and grasses. A combination of
steep slopes and poor root cohesion on these sparsely vegetated slopes means that the
Ladakh valley is highly susceptible to landsliding in the form of rock falls, debris flows and
mudflows. This has been evident by the frequent landslides the area has had, including the
two main events in 2005 and 2010. In October 2005, an earthquake on the Pakistan/Indian
border triggered landslides and mudslides in Kashmir, injuring over 6000 and claiming the
lives of around 1000. In August 2010, it was a cloudburst event that triggered landslides in
Leh, with around 400 injured and over 200 deaths. After the 2010 event, authorities realised
they would have to come up with a better plan to try and prevent and mitigate as much as
possible future landslides and give timely warnings.
This led the deputy commissioner office in Leh, in 2011, to produce a Disaster Management
Plan for the Leh district. The main way in which the authorities would try to predict and issue
faster and more accurate warnings was by having regular meetings at 12 or 24 hour
intervals with the relevant authorities, and by preparing a daily report while maintaining
regular contact with the relative authorities. The sub divisional magistrate was given the role
of issuing warnings in events of cloudbursts, earthquakes, and landslides. Although these
meetings, reports and warnings would be useful, the instructions and planning of them are
quite vague and it is unlikely that they have been maintained. Not only this, but there have
been no proposed measures as to how to warn the residents the most effectively, and the
authorities have not spent any money on getting facilities and instruments to predict the
landslides. Therefore, it can be said that not everything has been done that could have been
done to better predict landslides and issue faster, more accurate warnings.
However, the Disaster Management Plan for Leh also contains plans to mitigate landslides
and aid those affected by landslides, which shows that it has not been completely ineffective.
The authorities plan to strengthen the weak and vulnerable points in the river banks, so that
the threats posed from those points will decrease. The Army also aims to start an
afforestation program for areas with poor vegetation, however this may be difficult
considering the low rates of precipitation in the area. In affected areas, authorities are
