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Week 1 - International Crisis Diplomacy

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Introduction to crisis diplomacy in regards to how coercion is being used and the mechanisms of bluffing and uncertainty in international relations.

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  • June 12, 2024
  • 11
  • 2023/2024
  • Lecture notes
  • Graeme davies
  • Week 1

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INTERNATIONAL CRISIS DIPLOMACY MODULE
Week 1 – Coercion, Sanctions and the use of force in international
relations
Module overview - these 3 weeks is to deal with uncertainty
 Theories of coercion
o What is coercion

o How coercion can change behaviour

o Before the crises happen

 Costly signals
o We don’t know what other people think

 Other its bluff or they mean it
o Audience costs

 Making threats more credible
 Costs attach to it
 Reputation of the leaders
o Backing down sometimes good




Behaviour
 Russia invades Ukraine
 Economic sanctions
o Why it fails or success

 Inducements
o Domestically that we used

o Give money /something in return

o Hard to use it in international stage due to variety of reasons

 Carrots or sticks
o Giving them stuff

o How get people to do things

 Force: Airpower
 Psychology during crises
o Elites behaviour in crises

, o Looking at 2 areas

 Analytical




Case studies
 North Korea
o Is a weakest country

 Manpower
 Economic
 However they are able to force their way in making
decisions
o Nuclear programme

 Iran
o Suspicions of nuclear weapons but they didn’t build yet

 Russia
o Old Crimea crises (2014)

o Current crises

o How can the West get Russia to back down




Research questions
 Why does uncertainty matter ?
o We don’t know what's going on others mind

o No hegemon in international stages to enforce law

 1994 : law to reduce weapons in NK
 But it didn’t work
o States have an incentive to LIE in international stage

 Cheap talk - incentives
 Bluffing or telling the truth when one country threatens you
 They need to determine whether it is true or not
o How to separate if they mean it or not

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