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THE PAKISTANI FLOODS OF 2010
Background:
Date: 26 July 2010 – August 2010
The floods in Pakistan began in late July 2010,
resulting from heavy monsoon rains in the
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, Punjab and
Balochistan regions of Pakistan, which affected
the Indus River basin.
Approximately one-fifth of Pakistan’s total land
area was affected by floods, with the Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa province facing the brunt of the
damage and casualties (above 90% of all the
deaths occurred in the province). Nationwide,
there were 1,985 deaths.
According to Pakistani government data, the
floods directly affected about 20 million people,
mostly by destruction of property, livelihood and infrastructure.
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon had initially asked for US$ 460 million for emergency relief, noting
that the flood was the worst disaster he had ever seen. Only 20% of the relief funds requested had been
received on 15 August 2010. The UN had been concerned that aid was not arriving fast enough.
The Pakistani economy was harmed by extensive damage to infrastructure and crops. Damage to
structures was estimated to exceed US$ 4 billion and wheat crop damages were estimated to be over
US$ 500 million. Total economic impact may have been as much as US$ 43 billion.
The Causes of the Flood
Physical Causes
From its headwaters in the Himalayas of Tibet, the River Indus flows northwest through India
before turning sharply south across Pakistan
It finally discharges into the Arabian Sea, a journey of some 3,200 km.
The River Indus has an annual flood caused by tropical monsoon rainfall.
It's rich alluvium floodplain led to one of the cradles of civilization, 9000 years ago.
However, this flood's magnitude was, according to Professor Rajiv Sinha from the Indian
Institute of Technology, 5 or even 10 times stronger than normal.
The annual monsoon is caused by the movement of warm moisture laden air from the Indian
Ocean toward areas of low pressure, marked out by the Inter-Tropical Convergent Zone (ITCZ)
over the subcontinent.
Here, the subcontinent is superheated which creates strong rising thermals of low pressure.
, As warm air moves over the subcontinent it rises and dumps vast quantities of rainfall, which
cools the surface and replenishes the vital soil moisture and ground water.
In July 2010, more than half the normal rains fell in just one week in an unprecedented
sequence of days.
Intense rainfall totalling in excess of 200mm fell in a 4-day period from 27th to 30th July along
with above average rainfall in August.
The recorded monsoon rainfall associated with La Nina was the highest in a 50-year period.
The total area affected by flooding was 796,095 square kilometres, approximately 1/5 of
Pakistan's total land area
There was much discussion over exact causes of this level of rainfall
La Nina, which is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon that impacts southeast Pacific
Ocean temperature but is also thought to increase Indian monsoon rainfall was thought to be a
contributing factor.
The cycle of El Nino and La Nina, which are both important global heat transfers seem to be
occurring more frequently and is potentially a consequence of climate change.
Climate change scientists are observing both greater spatial variation and severity in the
monsoon rains.
Scientists have observed in the last 30 years a 40–60-mile northwest shift in the Pakistan
monsoon.
A second report in the New Scientist linked the severe monsoon to the effects of a phenomenon
that was freezing the jet stream.
o This had in the same been previously associated with forest fires and heat waves in
Russia
Another contributing factor is the alluvial nature of the River Indus.
The Indus is obstructed with vast quantities of sediment supplied by its Himalayan headwaters.
When combined with raised levees, the sediment only serve to obstruct the river further
o This reduces its capacity thus causing the likelihood of floods to increase.
Human Causes
Raised levees and protected banks contain the sediment and reduce the river capacity.
In this way river management is seen to exacerbate river floods along the Indus.
Western river management systems have been wrongly transferred to Asian rivers.
For example, with UK rivers, due to their size and scale they transport far less sediment.
o Raising the UK riverbanks has relatively little impact on channel capacity and
sedimentation.
A similar problem is the use of concrete line riverbanks
Often in rich sediment filled riverbanks, the shifting sands lead to concrete banks being
undermined and less effective in holding back floods.
o This problem is more associated with Bangladeshi river management.
Deforestation is also considered to be a major cause of the flood, with some commentators
suggesting that it was key trigger,
Deforestation rates vary in Pakistan from 2-2.4% annual rate.
, o At this rate the country's forest cover would be reduced to half of its 1995 extent by
2019-24, says Pakistan's Food and Agriculture Organization.
Deforestation is known to aggravate flooding by reducing the ability of drainage basins to
intercept inputs; consequently run-off rates and discharge are increased.
The lush Swat valley, a region of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province has been largely stripped of its
natural forest.
A local organization, Sarhad Awami Forestry Ittehad (SAFI) has claimed that in parts of Malakand
Agency, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, "more than 70% of forests were illegally cut down between 2007
and 2009, when Pakistani Taliban controlled the region.
There were also unconfirmed reports from some Pakistani agencies that India was responsible
for releasing water from tens of its dams in the Indian occupied region of Kashmir.
Effects of the Flood
Short Term
The flood affected the entire long course of the Pakistani section of the River Indus. In total one
fifth of Pakistan’s land areas was flooded.
Over 1700 people died with a further 20 million people affected through damaged property,
livelihoods, and homelessness
1.2 million homes destroyed, 800 000 people cut off from aid in remote regions
Widespread food and freshwater shortages. The WHO reported that 10 million people were
forced to drink unsafe water. 6 million suffering from hunger.
Floods submerged 69,000 km2 of Pakistan's most fertile cropland, killed 200,000 livestock and
washed away massive amounts of grain.
Floods damaged an estimated 3,916 km of highway and 5,646 km of railway and repairs are
expected to cost at least 158 million USD and 131 million USD, respectively. Public building
damage is estimated at 1 billion USD
10 000 schools were destroyed.
The total cost was estimated to be around €35 billion
Long Term
At this vast scale, it is sometimes difficult to distinguish between short and long-term impacts.
Lost Infrastructure Sets Pakistan Back Years Some commentators suggested that the flood could
set Pakistan back decades, further weaken its already weak civilian administration and add to
the burdens on its military. Rumours That Gov't Controlled Flooding Worsen Mistrust. The
Economist reported at the time disturbing stories of mistrust between the people and the
central government. Dark but plausible accusations were circulating that well-connected people
chose which areas were purposefully flooded to relieve pressure elsewhere; aid is being
diverted to constituencies of powerful figures; woefully feeble flood-protection infrastructure
was left badly maintained
Devastated Agriculture Will Cause Years of Food Shortage. The Economist reports, "Hunger may
prove to be a bigger problem. An estimated 23% of the year’s harvest was washed away,
, including a quarter of the cotton crop, which matters to the economy. About 2.6 million acres of
cultivated land have been drowned, says Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority.
Officials say that the rehabilitation will take three years, barring more floods. Food inflation will
hurt even the driest of the poor."
This Flood Makes Pakistan More Susceptible to Future Floods. Foreign Policy, suggest, the worse
the damage from this year's round of seasonal flooding, the worse next year will be. “I don't
know of Pakistan having any infrastructure to "prevent or alleviate" flooding. There are laws
prohibiting the felling of trees for the timber industry, but they operate only within defined
forest areas. We're not really doing anything about overdevelopment and the destruction of
forest cover and watershed areas, so in the future we are going to see more of these tragic
natural disasters."
Developments
There has been a massive and sustained bilateral and multilateral response to the Pakistan flood of
2010. The focus following the initial humanitarian effort has focused on recovery and capacity building.
The key focus points have been to provide clean water and sanitation. 2,5 million people are still
without clean water and sanitation. In addition, road building, home construction, public building
construction, including schools have been funded via ‘work for cash’ programs. 800 000 people remain
without permanent housing. Farmers have been provided with tones of artificial fertilizer in order to
speed up and encourage field recovery and crop yields.
The following outline comes from the UK Government’s DFID as a summary report on its own efforts in
the reconstruction of Pakistan. In total the UK government is providing, mainly via aid agencies:
Safe drinking water to 2.5 million people.
Tents and shelter for some 1.3 million people.
Toilets and sanitation for almost 500,000 people.
Food packages for more than one million people in flood affected areas, in addition to
nutritional support for half a million malnourished young children and pregnant/breastfeeding
women.
Wheat and vegetable seeds, fertilizer, animal stock feed, and veterinary services to more than
115,000 rural families to avoid further loss of animals and dependency on food aid for the next
year or more.
Basic health care for around 2.3 million people.
Help for 200,000 children by repairing 1,500 schools damaged by the floods and providing 200
temporary facilities for children whose schools have been destroyed across Sindh and the
Punjab, as well as accelerating a project to build forty schools in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
benefitting another 9,000 boys and girls.
Health and hygiene education on how to avoid potentially fatal diseases for around one million
people.
Help for around one million people in rural areas to earn a living by providing jobs, skills training,
as well as farming tools, seeds, and animals so families can restart their farms.
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