Week 1 – Art of Forecasting (1/2)
Traffic forecast approach
To understand what might happen in the future you have to know what happened in the past.
This is done by using ‘Tower Log data’ and ‘Market Analysis’. Tower log data contains data
from all the flights from the past that have been carried out, including the time, number of
passengers etc.
This has to be combined with a market analysis, because a tower log only gives you
information about the past movements and a market analysis gives you inside information
about what the developments in the market of your airport/catchment area/country are.
Next all the data and movements are analyzed. The general economic forecast is often done
by using the GDP of the country and the connecting country of the route. For example, is
there a potential increase of GDP then there is the possibility that people are more willingly
to fly between these two countries, which means more international traffic. And because of
this you may need to pay more attention to
your international terminal. This together
gives a picture about which values will
influence your design.
After this you have to consider the various
traffic flows, this contains not only
passenger movements but also the rest of
the examples of traffic flows below.
Examples of Traffic Flows
Passenger movements:
- International, domestic and combined;
- Transfer and transit;
- Scheduled/ Charter/ LCC;
- By Carrier/ Alliance.
Aircraft movements:
- Passenger;
- Full Freighter;
- Military;
- General Aviation.
Others:
- Air Cargo Volumes (belly cargo, full freighter cargo);
- Aircraft Fleet Mix (ICAO).
Annual Traffic Forecast
4 Main methods of Forecasting Subjectivity Amount of data
1. Trend projection
2. Market and industry surveys
3. Delphi Technique – Experts opinion
4. Econometric method – Regression analysis
In practice a combination of methods is used.
, Airport Capacity Planning
Block 6
1. Trend Projection
Characteristics:
- Historical data for determination of trend;
- Extrapolation from historical trend;
- Implicit assumption of continued stability of influences;
- Applicable for preparing a single development scenario;
- Not time insensitive and suitable for a quick and dirty approach to a forecast.
2. Market and Industry surveys
Characteristics:
- High level research method: analyze the characteristics of the air transport market in
combination with catchment area (p2F);
- This method is useful for forecasting green field airports;
- The obtained outcomes must, by the forecaster, be transformed into quantitative
forecast figures.
, Airport Capacity Planning
Block 6
3. Delphi Technique
Characteristics:
- The Delphi technique is a special method for forecasting by the consolidation of
aviation expert opinions (stakeholders) on the future air traffic development;
- This method is generally used in case data is sparse or not available;
- The forecaster selects (qualified) people and presents a questionnaire in which they
are requested to indicate a most probable course of future air traffic demand.
4. Econometric Method – Regression Analysis
Characteristics:
- Mostly used air traffic forecasting method;
- Regression analysis is a causal method of demand projection;
- The historical traffic development is explained by the impact of various economic,
social and operational indicators. Outcomes are used to develop the forecast model;
- Requires reliable historical and forecast data of (socio-economic) indicators.
However, traffic forecasts are always wrong. Nobody knows what will happen in the future.
Representation of possible air traffic developments. The volatility of aviation can be captured
by preparing development scenarios.
Passenger Volume Distribution
B – High volume airport with a large amount of short-haul
domestic traffic (US or EUR hub).
A – Medium volume airport with balanced int./domestic
traffic and balanced short/long haul operations (North
European Metropolitan airport).
C – Medium volume airport with high proportion of
international traffic concentrated in a vacation season
(Mediterranean airport serving resort area’s).
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