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Summary Lectures Adaptation to Climate Change (SLM51306)
Extensive overview of the contents of the lectures from Adaptation to Climate Change (SLM51306)
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Voorbeeld 4 van de 35 pagina's
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Voorbeeld van de inhoud
Adaptation to Climate ChangeIntroduction
Adaptation:
- Traditionally land use and management in a specific region are adapted to the prevailing
climate.
- With the recent climate change, land use and management should be evaluated and adapted
to
o Avoid large-scale land degradation
o Prevent disasters: large-scale crop failure and starvation.
- For this you need to be aware of:
o Physical changes due to climate change and their effects on cropping systems
o Social and economic changes due to climate change: vulnerability and adaptation
capacity
o Possible adaptation strategies under the existing physical and socio-economic
conditions.
Positive and negative climate forcing:
- Positive: becomes warmer
o Enhanced GHG-effect
- Negative: cooling effect
o More clouds due to more
aerosols
o Smog
o Vulcanic eruptions
- Natural fluctuations:
o Oscillation solar energy:
Sun spots
Milankovitch cycles
,“It is well established that there is more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere today than there was in the
past half million years - probably more than in the past twenty million years (IPCC, 2001), and that
carbon dioxide is a warming agent.”
Greenhouse gases:
- CO2 most abundant but:
- CH4 and N20 much stronger greenhouse gases
o CH4: 20 times (swamp
gas)
o N2O: 200 times
(laughing gas)
- C02 31% increase since 1750
- CH4 151% increase since 1750
- N2O 17% increase since 1750
Major sources:
- CO2 : energy, deforestation
- CH4 : wetlands, agriculture
(livestock, rice), natural gas, oil
- N2O : agriculture (fertilizer
use / manure), industry
(synthetic fertilizer
production), traffic
- Fluorocarbons : industry (man-
made)
Other result of temperature increase:
- Precipitation intensity
o Higher temperature result in higher probability of strong rains and extreme rains
o Increased amount of rain per event on nearly all continental surfaces with long
enough time series
o Increased total amount in
high latitudes throughout the year
higher mid-latitudes during winter
o Decrease in total amount in many semi-arid areas
o Slight increase in extreme events
- Runoff:
o Increased precipitation would generate more runoff: Saturation overland flow
o Increased rainfall intensity: infiltration excess overland flow
o More precipitation in extremes on the wet tail of the distribution poses flood risk
o Exacerbated by human changes in land use increase runoff (deforestation,
urbanization,…)
Climate changes effects so far:
- 10-15% decrease in summer sea ice in Arctic
- Widespread retreat of glaciers
- Sea level rise: 0.1-0.2 m during 20th century
- Global ocean heat content increased
- Mid-high latitudes: 0.5-1%/decade increase in precipitation & 2-4% increase in heavy
rainstorm frequency
, - Tropics: 0.2-0.3% increase in precipitation, frequency of drought has increased
- Sub-tropics: 0.3% decrease in precipitation
- Southern hemisphere: El Nino frequency has increased
Main sources of uncertainty for future climate
predictions:
- Future Greenhouse Emissions
o Emission scenarios depending on different development pathways
- Climate Sensitivity
o Global climate models
o Unknown processes
o Badly understood processes and feedbacks in climate system
- Therefore:
o What is cause and effect?
We have observations such as the long-term fluctuations in atmospheric CO 2
and CH4, as measured in ice cores. We know already a lot, but many
processes are still unknown.
o What is the changing role of humans?
CC science requires an understanding of the natural sciences as well as the
social and economic sciences!
o How can we respond?
What policies are most appropriate for society now, given the enormous
uncertainty or lack of understanding about the underlying science?
Adaptation: enhancing the resilience of the natural environment, the built environment and human
institutions to climate change
Adaptation questions:
1. What are the key focus areas for vulnerability and risk caused by climate change?
2. What efforts are currently addressing the key focus areas?
3. What practical actions can we recommend with the resources that are available?
Adaptation options in developing countries:
- Aim:
o To reduce vulnerability for risks (physical & socio-economic)
o To increase resilience of stakeholders
Definitions:
- Definition Vulnerability to climate change:
, o The degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are
susceptible to, and unable to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change
- Definition Risk:
o combination of the magnitude of the impact and the probability of occurrence
Climate change in developing countries:
- Predictions future climate change differ, but all indicate: tropical environments (location of
developing countries):
o temperatures will rise
o precipitation will be more erratic
- These changes affect the water availability for
o consumption,
o agriculture,
o ecology
- Without adaptation, there will be an increased risk for
o food insecurity,
o drought,
o floods
Why are developing countries vulnerable?
- Developing countries are most vulnerable to climate change impacts
o because they have fewer resources to adapt: socially, technologically and financially.
o economies are highly dependent on agriculture, which makes the need for
adaptation to climatic changes very urgent.
- Key vulnerabilities:
o Food supply (subsistence and rain fed farming)
o Health (increased Malaria)
o Water resources (erratic/lower rainfall)
o Coastal systems (increased storm activity)
o Ecosystems (changed climate)
o Glaciers (decreased water resources)
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