Samenvatting
Samenvatting 'The evolution of new markets'
- Instelling
- Universiteit Utrecht (UU)
Summary study book The Evolution of new markets of P.A. Geroski - ISBN: 9780199248896
[Meer zien]Voorbeeld 2 van de 13 pagina's
Voorbeeld 2 van de 13 pagina's
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Voorbeeld van de inhoud
Samenvatting “The evolution of new markets” – Paul GeroskiIntroduction
The concern here is with what happens in the very early phases of the development
of a new market. The early evolution of most market is, as we shall see, packed with
interesting incidents. These interesting incidents are not just accidents that happen
from time to time, rather they seem to be part of a systematic pattern: many new
market evolve through a number of recognizably common phases and display a
number of common features in each of them. At a much deeper level is that much of
what happens later on in the life of most markets can only be fully understood if
one understands how the market itself came into being.
2. Where do new technologies come from?
Although not all new markets are created by new technologies, it helps to
understand how markets are created and how they evolve by asking where new
technologies come from.
The drivers of innovation: demand pull and supply push
The fact that it takes at least two agents to make a market – a buyer and a seller-
suggest that there are, in principle, at least two important forces involved in the
innovation process that are worth keeping track of. One is demand, which, if
effective, can ‘pull’ the new innovation out of the laboratory and on to the market.
Since a new technology is developed to meet important needs, one might
reasonably think that those who were responsible for its development were being
guided by the desire to meet those needs. The other potential driver is supply,
which may ‘push’ a new innovation out into the market. Supply, in this context,
refers both to the individuals who do the serious tinkering, as well as to the
underlying base of scientific knowledge which they draw from in their tinkering. It
also applies to those non-scientists who spot a commercial opportunity and
organize others to develop new products and services from a new technology, and
bring them to the market.
Demand pull
It is clear that successful innovations are successful because there is a demand for
the goods and services which embody them, and this must mean that, at the very
least, demand is an important driver of innovation. Although superficially very
appealing, this argument is, however, too simple:
- Many of innovations that are produced and brought to market are not
successful and it is hard to argue that these were demand driven
- Putative inventors or innovators will form expectations about the likely
demand for what they are doing: they learn about demand signals: large,
rapidly growing markets will stimulate innovative activity > this can only
account for incremental innovations that develop and extend existing
markets. Radical innovations create new market, before they are developed
there is no well defined market for them to be sold into and, hence, no
demand signals of this sort exist to stimulate their development > What kind
of demand relies this argument on?
‘Inchoate demand’ = general demand for things that meet certain broadly
defined types of needs
‘Articulated’ or specific demand with particular characteristics which is one of
a whole class of products that meet a certain clearly perceived need. When we
talk about demand for something, we mean specific or articulated demand >
, there cannot be a specific demand for most new innovations, the demand for
products which do not as yet exist cannot be anything other than an inchoate
demand.
- Empirical fact: If demand were truly the main driver of innovation, why have
most of the advances in medical science occurred only in the last 50-100
years? The pull of demand is often limited by constraints originating on the
supply side.
Supply push
The question that we are addressing is ‘where do new technologies come from?’,
and the answer which comes from thinking about the process by which science and
technology advances is that many new technologies are pushed on to the market.
New technologies emerge from the creation of new technological trajectories (one
imagines that the most radical innovations are those associated with the appearance
of a new trajectory) or from movement along established trajectories (which may
generate relatively more minor innovations).
There are reasons for thinking that a pattern exists- for thinking that comes in
waves, that technologies evolve through ordered generations:
- Many scientists and engineers are very purposive and systematic people:
work plans are one form of organization; structure is also provided by
commonly shared mental models or ‘paradigms’, sets of shared beliefs about
the world held by groups of scientists and engineers working in a particular
area. Technology paradigms are mind sets. They help to define research
activities by setting priorities, establishing methods and conditioning
expectations.
- The conjecture that there is a deep seated structure to the workings of the
natural world that we live in.
The organized research program that scientists and engineers follow plus the
possibility that there may be a deep seated structure to knowledge means that there
may actually be a pattern to innovative activity over time. A sequence of innovations
which follow each other, all drawing on the same basic scientific or engineering
principle, each drawing from and then contributing to a cumulatively increasing
body of knowledge and expertise, is sometimes called a ‘technological trajectory’.
Different trajectories are typically associated with the different basic scientific
principles or the different scientific or technological paradigms from which they
have sprung.
Through or from the point of view of markets, a technological trajectory is really
nothing more than a set of possibilities, some of which are explored and, in turn,
lead to the creation of further possibilities. The more structured is knowledge and
the more tightly defined are science and technology paradigms, the more restricted
this set of possibilities is likely to be (and, of course, the more predictable will be
the resulting sequence of inventions and innovations).
When science and technology push an innovation onto the market, the good or
service which embodies the new science or technology is almost certain to be no
more than a guess about what might appeal to consumers. Until producers
understand exactly what the new technology can deliver, what kinds of new
products or processes it might make available and until consumers are able to
understand just how to use the new product or service, there will be room for
debate about just what that new good or service should look like, about what it
could- or should- do. The upshot of all this is that supply push innovation
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