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Top Ten Food TrendsA. Elizabeth Sloan | April 2013, Volume 67, No.4
Eating alone, home meals for millennials, a new definition of health, and a demand for true transparency are among the
important consumer trends that represent new opportunities for the food industry.
Unprecedented changes in lifestyles and eating patterns, a greater demand for healthier fare and more ethical options, and
consumers’ desire to know more about the foods they choose will cause dramatic changes in the way the food industry does
business in the years ahead.
With 73% of consumers expecting their financial situation to deteriorate or remain unchanged in 2013, and nearly one-quarter
still having difficulty affording weekly groceries (this includes 30% of millennial consumers—typically defined as those born in
the 1980s and 1990s), conservative consumer food-buying behaviors will continue (IRI, 2013).
Last year, 72% of consumers cooked more at home than in 2011 (Harris, 2012). One in three meal preparers changed their
cooking style last year to be more adventurous and to include more fruits/vegetables (Strailey, 2012).
Shoppers are cooking an average of five nights per week, eating out one night, and using take-out or ordering in for the other.
Meat/poultry is included in 3.6 of these five home-prepared meals vs 4.1 in 2012, down for the first time in eight years; 1.4 of
these meals are now meatless (FMI, 2013).
Many of last year’s best-selling foods/beverages catered to consumers’ rituals for home-based eating and entertaining as well
as their on-the-go/take-from-home lifestyle (IRI, 2013). Despite teen deaths allegedly linked to energy drinks and concerns
about their caffeine content, category sales were up 15.5% in units, making it the fastest-growing consumer packaged goods
(CPG) food category in 2012 in food, drug, mass merchandiser, and convenience stores (FDMC), followed by weight control
liquids/powders, +12.7%; and spirits/liquor, +12.6% (IRI, 2013; Figure 1.)
Among the top 10 largest food categories overall—which also includes energy drinks and wine—bottled water unit sales rose
4.7%, beer 4.5%, and natural cheese 2.8%; unit sales of salty snacks, carbonated beverages, fresh bread/rolls, milk, and
chocolate candy were negative (IRI, 2013).
Although there were more than 61 billion restaurant visits in 2012, restaurant traffic counts have yet to recover to pre-
recession levels (NPD, 2013a). Older adults continue to drive the restaurant business; those ages 55–64 are the highest per
capita spenders (NRA, 2013). Over the last five years, baby boomers and seniors increased their restaurant visits by 6% while
millennial visits fell by 6% (NPD, 2013b).
One in five adults (19.5%) or 44 million are “true foodies” characterized by their interest in trying new products, interest in
upscale presentation, and more intensive attitudes/behaviors toward foreign, spicy, gourmet, natural/organic, and fresh foods
(Packaged Facts, 2013a).
Two-thirds (66%) bought specialty foods last year, up 7% from 2011. Those ages 25–34 (73%) are the most frequent users
followed by those ages 55–64 (69%); 62% of seniors bought gourmet foods, up 8% last year (NASFT, 2012a). Chocolate, oils,
cheese, yogurt, and coffee were the most-purchased specialty food items; cheese and yogurt enjoyed the biggest gains in
customers (NASFT, 2012b).
Snacking frequency continues to increase for all age groups. In 2012, 73% snacked in the mid-afternoon, up 5% from 2010; 39%
snacked in the mid-morning, up 9% (Technomic, 2012a).
,Lastly, the convenience channel outperformed other food channels by a wide margin last year. Unit sales of fresh eggs in drug
stores rose 12% in 2012; natural cheese sales in drug stores were up 7% (IRI, 2013).
1. A Repositioned Palate
The foodie movement has set new product and culinary criteria for even the most basic everyday eating experiences and has
repositioned the American palate.
Flagged with a Four in 10 adult eating occasions (41%) can now be described as “savoring,” a descriptor designed to convey a
new upscale eating experience defined by freshness, distinctive flavors, foodie narratives, provenance, and more. Ten percent
of dinner occasions, 7% of lunch occasions, 5% of breakfasts, and 5% of snacks fall into this more sophisticated culinary
category (Hartman, 2011).
Rice, Chinese food, salads, eggs, beans, hamburgers, potatoes, vegetables, sweets, and meat cuts are the foods consumers
would most like to see upgraded (Hartman, 2011). New foods/drinks carrying a restaurant or chef’s endorsement enjoy on
average a 17% lift in year one sales. P.F. Chang’s Home Menu frozen dinners/appetizers were the topselling new product in
2011, with year one sales of $102 million (IRI, 2012a).
One in 10 shoppers trade up to higher-end cuts and leaner meats in an effort to mimic restaurant-style meals at home (FMI,
2013).
Since 2009, there has been a dramatic shift in consumer flavor preferences to more stimulating flavors. While grilled remains
the most preferred flavor, cited by 90% of those polled, in 2011 73% cited fruity as their second-most-favorite flavor, up from
up 45% in 2009, and putting it just ahead of sweet, cited by 72%, and spicy noted by 65%. Two-thirds of consumers now say
they really enjoy tangy, 54% smoky, 52% salty, 51% herbal, 31% sour, and 11% bitter—all nearly double the figures from three
years ago (Technomic, 2011a).
Adventuresome diners/restaurant foodies are significantly more likely to choose menu items with bitter, sour, and umami
flavors; millennials are most likely to enjoy these flavors (Culinary Visions, 2012).
Preparation style is the No. 1 way consumers would like flavor added to their foods (Technomic, 2011a). American Culinary
Federation (ACF) chefs ranked fermenting, pickling, sous vide, liquid nitrogen chilling, smoking, braising, oil-poaching, and
grilling as trendy preparation techniques for 2013 (NRA, 2012).
Over the past five years, sea salt was the fastest-growing spice on menus, followed by fennel, cumin, cayenne, thyme, cilantro,
black pepper, and sage (Moore, 2012). Specialty salts, flavored vinegars, agave, specialty oils (e.g., truffle), and aged meats
(e.g., prosciutto) are among the hot ingredients for 2013 (NRA, 2012).
Eight in 10 meal preparers (82%) marinate meats/poultry on a regular basis; 55% use a store bought product, 38% make their
own mix (FMI, 2013).
Spicy/hot flavors are the most preferred flavors/types of sauces, marinades, or seasoning for 53% of meal preparers; sweet
flavors are cited by 46% of consumers, ethnic 44%, unique/new ingredient pairings 28%, salty 23%, and sour flavors 22%
(Mintel, 2011a).
Authentic American regional sauces are of great interest to 49%; state, local, regional, or restaurant brands are of interest to
30%, and gourmet artisanal sauces appeal to 24% (Mintel, 2011a). Among regional cuisines, consumers are most interested in
Chicago followed by Tex-Mex, New England, Southern, Mid-Atlantic, low country/Texas, cuisine from North Carolina, Kansas
City barbecue, Southwestern, Creole/Cajun, Californian, Pacific Northwestern,and Hawaiian (Mintel, 2012a).
Using high-quality, simple ingredients such as whole grains, seeds, and nuts positions Back to Nature granola well for the
growing number of consumers seeking healthful, natural foods.Lastly, 36% of consumers now entertain family and friends at
home instead of going out. Twenty-seven percent feel gourmet snacks are worth paying extra for; 43% buy treats for at-home
consumption rather than going out (Wyatt, 2013). One-third of consumers buy gourmet foods when entertaining; 29% use
take-out or prepared foods (NASFT, 2012a).
At $28 billion, consumer catering is a huge untapped opportunity. Restaurants currently represent quadruple the revenue of
retailers in this sector ($19 billion vs $4 billion). One in three adults orders a party platter each month, representing $22 billion
in retail sales (Technomic, 2012b).
, 2. Redefining Health
Consumers have taken a more holistic approach to defining healthy foods. For food marketers, creating a healthy halo now
requires delivering against a combination of important elements—freshness, positive add-ins, avoidance of undesirable
substances, high-quality ingredients, an aura of natural, real, or close to the farm, as well as, when appropriate, some ethical,
sustainable, and humane criteria (Technomic, 2012c).
Fresh is a healthy eating strategy for 60% of consumers (FMI, 2012). Nine in 10 (87%) think fresh foods are healthier; 80% look
for fresh descriptors at retail, 58% in restaurants (Technomic, 2012c).
Three-quarters of adults (74%) believe that “home-made” or “house-made” foods/drinks are healthier; 72% associate sameday
preparation with healthfulness; 61% believe foods labeled “real” are healthful, 58% believe that of products labeled “made
from scratch,” and 60% think it is true for food described as “never frozen” (Technomic, 2012c).
Health also appears to be strongly related to quality. Four in 10 consumers (43%) think that products labeled “premium” are
more healthful; 38% think that of products with the descriptor “artisan,” 37% “authentic,” and 33% “seasonal” (Technomic,
2012c).
Including a serving of vegetables/fruit and “100% whole wheat” or “high fiber” claims clearly conveys a health message for nine
in 10 consumers; high protein conveys that to 77% of consumers (Technomic, 2012c).
Steaming, baking, grilling, and broiling and cooking methods with fiery or smoky elements (e.g., fire-roasted and wood-fired)
signal healthy preparation to consumers (Technomic, 2012c). Overall, descriptors that focus on positive health connotations,
such as “nutritious,” “healthy,” or “heart healthy” tend to be more appealing than “light” or “guiltless” (Technomic, 2012c).
This single-serving combination of hummus and multi-grain chips gives snackers a healthier on-the-go option. Among natural
and organic claims, consumers rank those that emphasize a lack of additives, such as “preservative-free,” “no artificial
sweeteners,” and “unprocessed,” above the umbrella term “natural” for healthfulness. At restaurants, one-quarter verify an
item’s natural positioning via claims (e.g., “no artificial sweeteners,” “natural,” and “unprocessed”); twice as many consumers
look for these claims at retail (Technomic, 2012c).
In 2012, 53% of consumers tried to limit salt/sodium, 51% sugar, 49% trans fats or calories, 47% saturated fats, and 44% high
fructose corn syrup (IFIC, 2012).
When it comes to sustainability and social responsibility, call-outs that highlight the welfare of animals such as “farm-raised,”
“grass-fed,” and “free-range” or “cage-free” are perceived as conveying healthfulness. Consumers feel these animals have been
raised in a more natural environment and were fed a more natural diet (Technomic, 2012c).
Nearly half of consumers (47%) say food described as “local” is healthier; 37% think sustainably sourced products are more
healthful, and one-quarter believe that of fair-trade food (Technomic, 2012c).
3. Generational Cooking
With millennials cutting back on restaurant visits for the fifth year in a row, developing home meal products that appeal to this
new generation of cooks is a very big idea (NPD, 2013b).
Not surprisingly with limited cooking skills, millennials are the most likely to use no-cook meal preparations and are the most
frequent consumers of pre-cooked fresh retail meals and frozen dinners (Packaged Facts, 2012a).
Although millennials have a higher tendency to use a wider variety of cooking methods (55% vs 45% overall), they are second to
those age 65+ (58% vs 48% overall) for use of the microwave oven (Mintel, 2012b, Figure 2).
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