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Summary Artikel Harz et al Virtual Reality in New Product Development: Insights from Pre-launch Sales Forecasting for Durables
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Harz et al Virtual Reality in New Product Development: Insights from Pre-launch Sales Forecastingfor Durables
Inhoud van het artikel: Dit paper onderzoekt de werking van online virtual reality en lab virtual
reality. Er wordt gekeken of dit een betere measure is dan de situatie nabootsen in een
laberatorium omdat bij virtual reality ook omgevingsfactoren een rol kunnen spelen. Dit artikel
kijkt bijvoorbeeld naar het aankoopproces van twee producten. Als je dit in een winkel koopt
wordt je geprikkeld door allerlei factoren, dit is super lastig na te bootsen in een laberatorium. Dit
onderzoek bevestigd ook dat VR kan leiden tot betere voorspelling van productintroducties.
Goal of research: This investigation examines how consumer durable goods producers can leverage
virtual reality for new product development.
1) First, the authors develop a prelaunch sales forecasting approach with two key features:
virtual reality and an extended macroflow model. To assess its effectiveness, the authors
collect data from 631 potential buyers of two real-world innovations. The results reveal that
the new approach yields highly accurate prelaunch forecasts across the two field studies:
compared with the actual sales data tracked after the product launches, the prediction errors
for the aggregated first-year sales are only 1.9% (Study 1a, original prelaunch sales
forecast), .0% (Study 1b, forecast with actual advertisement spending), and 20.0% (Study 1b,
original prelaunch forecast). Moreover, the average mean absolute percentage error for the
monthly sales is only 23% across both studies.
2) Second, to understand the mechanisms of virtual reality, the authors conduct a controlled
laboratory experiment. The findings reveal that virtual reality fosters behavioral consistency
between participants’ information search, preferences, and buying behavior. Moreover,
virtual reality enhances participants’ perceptions related to presence and vividness, but not
their perceptions related to alternative theoretical perspectives.
3) Finally, the authors provide recommendations for when and how managers can use virtual
reality in new product development.
durables producers could get consumer insights earlier in the NPD process by relying on
virtual reality, resulting in advantages such as better aligned production and
commercialization plans or cost reductions. For these reasons, research examines how
consumer durable goods producers can utilize virtual reality—a simulated environment that
allows the consumer to interact with it —to improve their NPD. We focus on virtual reality
for prelaunch sales forecasting and then discuss implications for other NPD tasks. In
particular, we examine the following:
RQ1: (How) does virtual reality improve prelaunch sales forecasting?
- Researchers have focused on forecasting models for new durables that are applied close
to launch
- The use of a virtual reality simulation for the new approach was motivated by virtual
reality’s visualization and automated racking capabilities. We explain these two
capabilities and then discuss the virtual reality types that leverage these capabilities to a
varying extent
Visualization capability: refers to the ability to simulate new products, customer
touchpoints, and environments in a comprehensive, realistic, and engaging manner.
First, virtual reality can span a very high simulation scope. This attribute is due to its ability to
simulate all facets of purchase journeys with many different products and detailed depictions of
various information sources and shopping environments, such as online shops or local retail stores
, Second, virtual reality can achieve a (very) high similarity to reality. This attribute is due to its ability
to showcase the simulated shopping environment and products from 360 degrees and first-person
perspective based on 360-degree pictures of the actual setting
Third, virtual reality simulations can achieve a (very) high immersion of consumers. This attribute
exists because, using additional virtual reality equipment (e.g., head-mounted displays, motion
controllers), it can deeply transport consumers into a simulation by stimulating their senses
intensively
Thus, we expected that virtual reality (vs. previous approaches) would motivate more
realistic behavior by further increasing consumers’ perceived transportation into the
simulation.
Automated-tracking capability: the ability to directly collect data of consumers’ interactions with the
simulation. The recorded data can encompass the type of interaction performed by the consumer
(e.g., entering a simulated environment, operating a product in the use environment) as well as the
duration of each interaction
Virtual reality has an automated-tracking capability advantage over previous approaches, which
relied on observations to capture consumers’ actions and focused on collecting data on interactions
with the products. In contrast, due to sophisticated computer-based simulation technology and
motion-tracking sensors, virtual reality offers additional options to interact with both the simulated
environment and the products
Virtual reality types: Fall into two main
categories: lab virtual reality and online virtual
reality. Lab virtual reality requires data
gathering in a central location, as it uses
additional equipment for viewing and
interacting with the simulated environment
(e.g., head-mounted displays, sensory input
devices, power walls). This equipment allows
lab virtual realities to offer many highly
intuitive interaction possibilities
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