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Summary Demography and Global Population Issues
- Vak
- Epidemiology
- Instelling
- Wageningen University (WUR)
Summary of the literature for the course 'Demography and Global Population Issues'
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Summary ReadingMaterial CHL23806
Weeks, John R. (2015).
Population. An Introduction to
,Concepts and Issues (12th
edition).
Chapter 1 Introduction to Demography
Population growth is an irresistible force. Indeed, every social, political, and economic problem facing
the world today has demographic change as a root cause. The rise in life expectancy over the past
two centuries, and most dramatically since the end of World War II, is the most important
phenomenon in human history. More people living longer has produced unprecedented population
growth and previously unthinkable transformations in human society.
Reports of declining birth rates in many parts of the world notwithstanding, it is a fact that the
number of people added to the world each day is higher today than at any time in history.
Moreover, we now live in a world crowded not only with people but also with contradictions.
There are more highly educated people than ever before, yet also more illiterates; more rich people,
but also more poor; more well-fed children, but also more hunger-ravaged babies whose images
haunt us.
Understanding these and a wide range of related issues is the business of demography. Demography
is defined as the scientific study of human populations.
What is demography?
Modern demography is the study of the determinants and consequences of population change and
is concerned with effectively everything that influences and can be influenced by:
population size (how many people there are in a given place)
population growth or decline (how the number of people in that place is changing over time)
population processes (the levels and trends in fertility, mortality, and migration that are
determining population size and change and that can be thought of as capturing life’s three
main moments: hatching, matching, and dispatching)
population spatial distribution (where people are located and why)
population structure (how many males and females there are of each age)
population characteristics (what people are like in a given place, in terms of variables such as
education, income, occupation, family and household relationships, immigrant and refugee
status, and the many other characteristics that add up to who we are as individuals or
groups).
It has been said that “the past is a foreign country; they do things differently there”. Table 1.1
illustrates this idea, comparing population data for the US in the year 1910 with that of the year
2010. In 1910 there were fewer than 2 billion people on the planet, whereas by 2010 there were
nearly 7 billion. Mortality levels in the U.S. dropped substantially over the century, leading to a truly
amazing 29-year rise in life expectancy for females, from 52 in 1910 to 81 in 2010, with men lagging
behind just a bit. Fertility also declined over the century between 1910 and 2010. The past was
young, with 4 percent aged 65 and older; whereas the present is older, with 13 percent aged 65 and
older. The world of 1910 was very different from the world of 2010, and the demographics represent
an important part of that difference.
,How Does Demography Connect the Dots?
It may sound arrogant to suggest that nearly everything is connected to demography, but it really is
true. The demographic foundation of our lives is deep and broad. Demography affects nearly every
facet of your life in some way or another. Population change is one of the prime forces behind social
and technological change all over the world. As population size and composition changes in an area
— whether it be growth or decline — people have to adjust, and from those adjustments radiate
innumerable alterations to the way society operates. This is very different, however, from saying
that demography determines everything. There is no guarantee about how a society will react to
demographic change. That is why it is impossible to be a demographic determinist. Demographic
change does demand a societal response, but different societies will respond differently.
Nonetheless, it turns out that population structures are sufficiently predictable that we can at least
suggest the kinds of responses from which societies are going to have to choose. Population change
is obviously not the only source of trouble in the world, but its impact is often incendiary, igniting
other dilemmas that face human society.
The Relationship of Population to Resources
Food
None of the basic resources required to expand food output—land, water, energy, fertilizer—can be
considered abundant today. This especially impacts less developed countries with rapidly rising food
demands and small energy reserves.
Water
An estimated one in three humans already face water scarcity, as demand for water increases faster
than the available supply of fresh water.
Energy
Every person added to the world’s population requires energy to prepare food, provide clothing and
shelter, and to fuel economic life in general. Our rising standard of living is directly tied to our
increasing use of energy, yet every increment in demand is another claim on those resources.
Housing and infrastructure
The irony of growing more food is that it requires mechanization, rather than more laborers, so as
the number grows, the population is forced to move to cities in hopes of finding a job there. This
means building homes (which requires a lot of resources) and providing urban infrastructure.
Environmental degradation
As the human population has increased, so has its potential for disrupting the earth’s biosphere. We
are using up resources and waste accompanies use. The waste from fossil fuel use is carbon dioxide
released into the atmosphere, generating the well-known effect on global climate change, evidenced
perhaps most dramatically by the melting glaciers. But we are also damaging the hydrosphere (the
world of water) by contaminating the fresh water supply, etc.
The task we will confront in the future is to maintain our standard of living while using many fewer
resources per person.
, The Relationship of Population to Social and Political Dynamics
Regional Conflict
It is tempting to think that population growth has not really yet had much of an impact on civil
society. One reaction to population growth is to accept or embrace the change and then seek
positive solutions to the dilemmas. Another reaction is to reject change. This is what the Taliban has
been trying to do for decades in parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan—to prevent a society from
modernizing by force and, in the process, keeping death rates higher than they might otherwise be.
Sub-Saharan Africa is another part of the world where population growth has been increasing faster
than resources can be generated to support it—despite the devastation caused by HIV/AIDS—
increasing the level of poverty and disease, and encouraging child labor, slavery, despair, and violent
ethno-nationalist conflict.
I.e. the MENA region, where large fractions of the population are young, well educated, and
frustrated by the lack of jobs, and where males are routinely accorded higher status than females.
Globalization
Regional conflict is one response to population growth, but a less violent, albeit still controversial,
response has been globalization (= an increasing level of connectedness among and between people
and places all over the world). This trend is promoted by the removal of trade barriers that protect
local industries and by the integration of local and regional economies into a larger world arena.
The pros and cons of this process invite heated debate, but an important, yet generally ignored,
element of globalization is that it is closely related to the enormous increase in worldwide population
growth that took place after the end of World War II.
So, the fact that 90% of the world’s population growth in the foreseeable future will occur in the
less developed nations is an important reason for the globalization of business and the
internationalization of investment.
Immigration
Globalization of the labor force has significantly broadened the ancient relationship between jobs
and geography by bringing jobs to people in developing countries. I.e., the resulting
underemployment in Mexico (people work, but there is not enough work to constitute a full-time
job) caused naturally increased attractiveness of migrating to where better jobs are.
Riding the Age Wave
A key demographic with which societies must cope is the changing age structure. The baby boom is
still having an impact, but now the big question has become: How will the country finance the
retirement and the health care needs of baby boomers as they age and retire? Delaying retirement is
probably the easiest change to make, at least in the abstract.
The same age structure changes also influence the educational system and have an impact on the
health care industry (health care is now less about birthing and coping with childhood illnesses, and
more about treating the chronic diseases that beset an older population). Also, i.e. crime and health,
is closely tied to the age and sex structure of a community. Also, consumption changes, because
people at different ages have different needs and tastes for products and differing amounts of money
to spend.
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