Data & (Mis)information
Lecture 1 - Introduction
Facts vs. beliefs (what you believe to be a fact)
Objective truth (truth verified by abundant evidence, universally accepted) vs.
subjective truth (i.e.,, beliefs backed up by some evidence, e.g., theories,
hypotheses, often competing with other beliefs).
Examples
1.The world is not flat. - objective truth
2. The climate changes due to human interference - objective
truth
3. 2 + 2 =4 - objective truth
4. Everyone dies at some point. - objective truth
5.More than two hours of gaming is bad for your health? - subjective truth
(advocates for both sides)
Post-truth: relating to or denoting circumstances in which objective facts are less
influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief.
E.g., corona virus, climate change, etc. (need to act on these problems based on
facts, not on people's feelings, etc.)
Digital Wildfires
You post something on twitter (something you believe in) and then it goes viral. --
> digital wildfire.
Massive digital misleading information.
Impact amplified by hyperconnectivity.
Rapid viral spread of information, with potential serious consequences.
Lies spread faster than the truth (Vosoughi, Ray, & Aral (2018))
Data set of rumor cascades on Twitter from 2006 to 2017
o About 126,000 rumors spread by +/- 3 million people
False news reached more people than the truth
o The top 1% of false news cascades diffused to between 1000 and
100,000 people.
o The truth rarely diffused to more than 1000 people.
Falsehood also diffused faster than the truth.
Artificial amplification
(Fake followers and likes)
False trending; artificial amplification of online traffic to create the illusion of
popularity and support.
Misinformation vs. Disinformation
Misinformation: false information resulting from honest mistakes.
Disinformation: false information spread with the
deliberate intent to mislead the audience.
Examples of disinformation are: Satire messages
(such as de Speld messages) or Conspiracy theories.
,The label of false information can change over time (it depends on the intent of
the sender, does he/she know the information is false? Then it is disinformation,
but when he/she does not know that it is not true, it becomes misinformation).
Lecture 2 - Fact-checking
What is a fact?
A fact is a statement:
That can be verified: true or false (to a certain extent); it needs to be ‘fact-
checkable’.
About something that is taking place or has taken place (as opposed
predictions);
That is objective, independent of the one who utters the statement;
That contains concepts with(kind of) a fixed meaning, in a certain context;
That can be verified with a specifiable method (e.g., observation,
measurement).
As opposed to beliefs, opinions, etc.
Examples:
- This is a sentence - Fact
- “I am looking forward to this course“ - Not a fact
- “All students will pass the course” - Not a fact
Fact-checkable
There are lots of statements that are in between a clear fact and a clear opinion.
1. “The unemployment rate has decreased by two points in the four months
since I became President”.
2. “The private sector’s confidence in my government has led to a 2-point
decrease in the unemployment figures.”
3. “Without my government, we wouldn’t have seen unemployment fall by
two points.”
All contain the same basic fact: “The unemployment rate has decreased by two
percentage points over a four-month period”. Is checkable (at national
statistical agencies).
Causation is trickier to fact-check than correlation. (So, example 2 is harder to
check than example 1). Because, a correlation between two factors does not
necessarily depict causation.
The third statement contains a claim that is more clearly an opinion. There is no
way to know what would have happened to the unemployment rate, had the
country been governed by someone else. Opinions are also harder to check of
course. In this case even not fact-checkable.
Food for thought
A fact is not as straightforward as one may think. Is a false or unverified fact still a fact?
Postmodernistic claim: "There is no absolute truth.” Can we really determine the truthfulness of
factual statements? Isn’t it a matter of perspective?
,How to fact-check
There are various fact-checking methods out there. For example by looking at the provenance,
source, date, location, motivation, etc. of information. Or when specifically fact-checking text, you
can take a look at the following parts:
Accuracy: titles, product names, place names, locations, etc.
Double-check names and titles, either by finding a source’s official bio online or by asking
them directly.
Based on a study? Dig up the original study and make sure the summary was accurate.
Same goes for things like statistics, dates and just about anything else you can double-check
in a primary document.
If you’re fact-checking something like an event – what happened, who did what, etc. – it’s
good to use extra sources.
Trust your gut – if something a source is telling you doesn’t ring true, check with another
expert (or two or three).
Take a closer look at sentences including underspecified terms like: “increasing amount”,
“often”, “presumably”, “probably”, “more and more”, “significant increase in”, etc.
Check declarative statements, for example, “… this is a big deal”, “the area is huge”, etc. The
reason it is a “big deal” should be explained in the text. If it isn’t find out why: is it a big deal
because of money, time, compared to something else?
What about the trustworthiness of the sources? Can they be trusted? Are they biased? Are
they real even? (bots?)
What is missing?
If needed: approach relevant sources (people or extra databases, ‘experts’, or…).
How to fact-check photos?
- Is it real? Or manipulated in some way?
- Is it what/where/when it is claimed to be?
o Verify the source: who originally shot/uploaded the photo/video? Reliable?
o Locate the photo/video: where was it shot?
o Verify the date: when was it shot?
Always use your eyes and gut instinct. And, make use of the various online tools (OSINT), such as:
reversed image search tools (Google, TinEye, InVID, Yandex Image Search), Google Maps/StreetView,
Google Translate, Weather maps (what was the weather like on that day?), etc.
How to fact-check videos?
Fact-checking videos is harder than fact-checking photos. But here it is also important to verify the
source, locate the video, and verify the date.
Some tools:
Search YouTube with keywords from the video’s description, tag, comment or some piece of
identifying text
Reverse image search of thumbnails and screenshots (TinEye, Google Image
Finding thumbnails for a reversed image search: Amnesty’s YouTube Data Viewer
Google Maps / Google Earth / Weather archives /
But these tools don’t always give you the desired output. Therefore make sure to keep using your
common sense, a good eye and creative searching. Does the video make sense given the context in
which it was filmed? Does anything clash with your gut instinct? Does anything look out of place? Do
, clues suggest it is not legitimate? Doe any of the source’s details or answers to your questions not
add up? Etc. etc.
