Global Sustainability
takes a broad view on sustainibility:
- environment, social, economic
- man, nature
- present, future generations
- qualitative, quantitative
- policy, concepts, indicators, models
Lecture 1 - Mon 10-01
HISTORY
sustainability is global
Thomas Malthus (an esssay on the principal of population 1798)
- population grows exponentially (geometrically) (Pt+1 = aPt)
- food production growns linearly (arithmetically) (Ft+1 = Ft + B)
due to the exponential growth of the population and the linear growth of the food, the
exponential growth will ‘win’,more people then food.
two solutuions:
- less births (abstinence)
- more or earlier deaths
neo-malthusianism: re-interpretation, emphasizing birth control
William Jevons (the coal question 1865)
First to speak about the exhaustion of coal mines (1865), because coal is not renewable.
he made two graphs of the supposed coal consumtion until 2000, after 1950, it’ll explode
exponentially.
problem: depletion and exhaustion of the mines (not to polotion or waste)
→ importance of data and models, he extrapolated the real numbers to make the models to
make predictions
Jevons paradox states that a more efficient resource usage does not lead to less use but to
more use
technologies: making it more efficient → over the years the usage becomes higher, it is used
more because it is so efficient. Rebound effect: part of the effiency improvement is lost.
worse then you started: javons paradox
rachel carson (silent spring 1962)
pesticides have a detrimental effect on the environment, insects will dissapear → no birds →
silent spring. This book was highly influental and lead to the ban of the DDT pesticide and to
more strict procedures of approving new pesticides.
60s and 70s: environment was discoverd
Kenneth Boulding (the economic of the coming spaceship earth 1966)
metaphor: the earth is a closed system like a spaceship: limitation of earth and its resources.
we are restricted by what is on board.
Contrast
- the cowboy economy (the cowboy being symbolic of the illimitable plains and also
associated with reckless, exploitative, romantic, and violent behaviour, which is
characteristic of open societies)
- the spaceman economy (the earth has become a single spaceship, without
unlimited reservoirs of anything, either for extraction or for pollution, and in which,
, therefore, man must find his place in a cyclical ecological system which is capable of
continuous reproduction of material form even though it cannot escape having inputs
of energy)
Garret Hardin (the tragedy of the commons 1968)
open access to unregulated resources tend to be overexploted, not owned or regulated land
are over exploted by induvidual profits.
examples: common lands, forests, rivers, wildlife, clean air
the club of rome (the limits of growth 1972)
the malthusian theme: exponential growth of population and an finite supply of resources,
but also exponential growth of welfare.
Nicolas Georgecu-Roegen (The Entropy Law and the Economic Process (1971))
Natural resources are irreversibly degraded when used for economic activity
Entropy
- a scientific measure of disorder
- in a closed system, entropy increases
- second law of thermodynamics
Create value out of entropy, its limited
robert ayres Economic and the Environment. A materials balance approach (1970)
Materials balance:
- in=out (in the long run)
- for every activity
- but also economy-wide
economic system as a fisical system of balance: everything that goes in, goes out.
1973: Yom kippur war, lead to decrease of oil production → price reflects on scarcity and
availability of the resources of the earth
the brundtland report (our common future) made by the united natitions
“the world commission on environment and development”
sustaibable development: was minted for the first time, got their popularity
- “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of
future generations to meid their own needs”
- development: if the environment is degrated or resources are depleted, it is
comprised for the future
- we need the economic development within the enviromental condtrains: if not it is
hard for the future
- sustainability looks at the future generations and needs to be protected
united nations enviroment programme (1972)
UNEP’s mission is to provide leadership and encourage partnership in caring for the
environment by inspiring, informing, and enabling nations and peoples to improve their
quality of life without compromising that of future generations.
important activities:
millennium develepment goals: (2000-2015)
- eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
- achieve universal primary education
, - promote gender equality and empower woman
- reducs child mortality
- improve maternal health
- combat hiv/aids, malaria and other diseases
- ensure environmental sustainability
- global partnership for development
they changed because they could not achieve these them into
sustaibable develepment goals:
- (1) No Poverty, (2) Zero Hunger, (3) Good Health and Well-being, (4) Quality Education,
(5) Gender Equality, (6) Clean Water and Sanitation, (7) Affordable and Clean Energy,
(8) Decent Work and Economic Growth, (9) Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure, (10)
Reduced Inequality, (11) Sustainable Cities and Communities, (12) Responsible
Consumption and Production, (13) Climate Action, (14) Life Below Water, (15) Life On
Land, (16) Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions, (17) Partnerships for the Goals.
this is not mainly focused on environmental goals or sustainability.
john elkington (cannibals with forks 1994)
tripple bottom line: people (social), plan (ecological), profit (financial)
is it a progress if a cannibal uses a fork? → implenting companies spoiling our environment
and allowing them if they do it in the ‘right way’. There is no such thing as 100% green or
good for the envoirment, because if it were they wouldn’t do it in the first place beacouse
nothing is good for the environment
johan rochström et al. (2009)
a safe oparating space for humanity
Nine earth system processes: essential for living, what is the safe operating space that we
have available and on which level, (overshoot or not?)
- climate change - fresh water
- biodiversity loss - ozone depletion
- nitrogen cycle/phosphorus - atmosphere aerosols
- ocean acidification - chemical pollution
- land use
kate raworth doughnut economics (2017)
combining the planetary and socio-economic boundries
- ecological ceiling
- social foundation
Guest lecture 10-01
environmental and sustainability consulting: an international perspective
1. concepts
a) emissions
b) sustainable development
c) planetary boundries
emmissions means: the realease of substances into the environment compartments: air, soil,
water, sediment
this has an directly and indirectly impact on: human, flora fauna, manmade structures
impacts can be local, regional and global → transboundary impacts
sustaibable → derives from the term ‘sustainable development’
“Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs” (Brundtland 1987)
,take the future generations into account
preserve the environment, high welfare but avoid providing these thing at the cost of future
generations, achieve max amount of welfare while preserving the environment for the future.
tripple bottim line
future generations: making decisions on how to balance society, economy and environment
→ what doe sit mean for the future gens? while also not costing to much.
planetary boundries: concept for (quantifing) environmental sustainability.
emi a certain amount of pollution, damage, before its too late, once its too late, we dont have
a sustainable environment, proccesses we can no longer reverse
safe operating place: is “the place” where the amounts are still safe and good.
sustainable develepment goals: developt for balance society, economy and environmeng to
specific goals. how do we quantify these goals?
Lecture wed 12-01
ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS
Causal chains
The nine (?) earth system processes
- Climate change
- Ocean acidification
- Stratospheric ozone depletion
- Nitrogen & Phosphorous cycle
- Global freshwater use
- Change in land use
- Biodiversity loss
- Atmospheric aerosol loading
- Chemical pollution No more issues?
what are the environmental issues? everything has to do with one another (it effects each
other) → causes and effects
to organizie these issues/problems to a more serviable list different frameworks are used.
One way to organize the interactions between society and environment
Generally accepted
- based on PSR by the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development) accepted DPSIR
- modified and adopted by the EEA (European Environment Agency)addopted DPSIR
we can use: DPSIR framework
stages in network:
driving forces (e.g., transportation)
pressures (e.g., emissions)
states (e.g., air quality)
impacts (e.g., illness)
responses (e.g., regulation)
PSI-chain: everything effects and impects
each other (with arrows)
emitting polluting chemicals leads to
bioaccumulation, pathway of the
, chemicals betwwen emission and impacts, ‘cascade of things are going on’. Quantifying
what is going on, modelling it: emissions factors, dipersion modelling, exposure assesment,
receptor and dose-response. they need to have data.
midpoint impact category, damage pathways, endpoint area of protection. clarify what is
important and what is the goal to keep in mind, choices need to be made for the
environmental impacts. damage human health, damage ecosystems and damage resource
availibility are the main endpoint areas of protection.
→ restricting it to the nine earth system processes.
climate change: impact category
one of the mot important
can be reffered to as different names: global warming, enhanced greenhouse effect
consequences of th eenhanced greenhouse effect:
- constant indlow of solar energy
- decreased outflow of heat
- resulting incresed temprature
→ the heat is captured, ozon layer protectst the earth from certain extreme heat, but
captures the heat and stoffen inside (co2)
this leads to many (more complicate) concequences:
- higher temperatures and heat waves
- melting of ice caps and glaciers
- rise of sea level
- change of vegetation patterns
- loss of habitat
- change of gulf stream
- forest fires
- wider spread of malaria and other diseases
Also positive (?) consequences on human productivity → eventually we need to make a
balance between positive and negative effects.
- increased agricultural production
- agriculture in Siberia
- arctic sea navigable
what is responsible for the three greenhouse gas emmisions: (CO2, CH4, N20)
electric power stations, industrial processes, transportation fuels, land use and biomass
burning, agricultural protection, fossil fuel retrieval, processing and distribution,
residential,commercial. The chemicals are released by the different industrial processes,
everything runs on energy. energy production is the major source. energy is the most
important source. Most services are not polluting but use things that run on energy. we can
try to restrict the release of CO2 in the energy process but that requires a less usage of
energy that has trumandes consequences. climate change is persuasive in our daily life.
The stern review (2006)
main conclusion:
- climate change is the biggest market failure ever
- strong early action is much cheaper than doing nothing (bc in the longterm ill be more
expensive with greater ingrepen)
- provides tremendous opportunities for business
