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Democracies, autocracies and transition - Lecture notes
Lecture notes 2022 Democracies, autocracies and transition
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PART I - REGIME TYPESLecture #1 - Introduction
Different theories explain cross-sectional variance at the level of the nation-state:
One theory cannot explain the total variance, structural, or agency factors?
+ Regional variance within nation-states
Longitudinal variance across time:
Check whether theories hold over time within a country.
→ Structural (long-term) explanations for differences between countries, but (short term)
agency of actors explains internal shifts in regime types.
BUT long-term structural path-dependence exists, not much change in regime types in the
short term generally.
Democracy as a universal value - AMARTYA SEN
Different regime types have different consequences → direction of causality is questionable.
Sen believes - countries are not fit for democracy but fit THROUGH democracy.
Value of democracy:
1. Intrinsic - people are political beings, need to belong to participate and be heard
within a community. Political participation and freedom in human life
2. Instrumental - creates incentives for elites to act in a responsive, responsible manner
and to be held accountable (to the preferences of the governed). Political incentives in
keeping governments responsible and accountable
3. Constructive - interest articulation, allowing citizens to form opinions, channel
concerns from the population to the elite, and achieve peaceful resolutions. Formation
of values and in the understanding of needs, rights, and duties.
,Democracy as an outcome (DV) vs Democracy as a cause (IV):
Lee, Singaporean prime minister credited with transforming the Singaporean economy.
Lee hypothesis: If the aim is to develop economically (education, employment…),
democracy is a second priority.
Economic development is achieved at the cost of civil & political liberties.
- Democracy → Growth (Knusten)
• Average democratic ten-year growth rate 2.5%, average autocratic growth rate 1.5%
• Variance among autocratic growth is greater, with more autocracies at the negative end
(lower economic growth rates & major economic disasters).
• Autocratic growth is more volatile.
eg. famines mostly occur in autocracies, regardless of conditions, Mao’s great leap forwards.
- Democracy → Social protection (Murshed) in developing countries
• More democratic countries will have more social welfare spending, elites are more
responsive to the concerns of the citizens & citizens are more vocal (interest articulation).
• As a country becomes more democratic spending goes up.
(Most important factor in explaining expenditure is tax capacity, how to collect tax revenue).
- Democracy → Global health (Bollyky)
Eg. life expectancy, infant mortality…
• Countries undergoing successful democratic transition, life expectancy increases, when
compared to authoritarian countries.
- Democracy → Climate change (Povitkina)
, • Interest articulation, NGOs, civil society actors can express concerns (but GDP per capita is
a more important factor).
• Both within and between country CO2 emissions regime type is important.
Democracy as a ‘Western’ concept:
Cherry-picking in philosophical traditions to justify a culturally deterministic view of
democracy as a western concept often to preserve own authoritarian position.
Ideas of freedom are not solely western.
Lecture #2 - What is democracy?
Democracy through the centuries
Democracy is equated to ‘mob rule’ and violence (producing sub-optimal policy outcomes).
Rule by the people in accordance with the will of the bulk was viewed as fatal to individual
freedom from earliest historical times until 100 years ago.
(questioning the mental capacity of citizens, workers, women, minorities… to self-govern)
→ Within 50 years democracy became a good thing - C.B. Macpherson, 1966
- Ancient Greece
Democratic governance is limited to a select group of citizens through lottery or deliberation.
Plato’s metaphor of the Ship of State in the “Republic”
Critique of Greece being governed by demagogues, who take over control for their
own interests (sailors), while the intellectual philosopher-kings (navigator) are not
included in political decision-making.
Philosopher-kings are able to see reality in its truest form.
power and knowledge → epistocracy, rule by the enlightened
Referendums as an example of mob rule. Need to “Save democracy from the people”
Aristotle’s classification of regimes typologies:
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