All-encapsulating summary of the prescribed readings for AIR In full writing format. It is advised to read on the cases case per case. Caused me to get a 8.5 for the exam, ask the class of 2023 ;).
Why states seek to gain as much power as possible over their rivals?
Great powers are always searching for opportunities to gain power over their rivals +
work to make sure that no state will take advantage of them (defense + offense)
o Hegemony = final goal
o Rare to have status quo powers
o Great powers have revisionist intentions at their core => want to change the
system to become more powerful
Seek to maximize their share of world power
Why do states pursue power?
Because of 5 assumptions about the international system (that have to be considered
together, they can’t explain why state pursue power if they are used independently)
Bedrock assumptions:
1) The international system is anarchic (no central authority above states)
2) Great powers inherently possess some offensive military capability which gives
them the possibility to hurt and possibly destroy each other
3) States can never be certain of another state’s intentions (hostile or pacific)
a. Intentions can change very quickly so a state’s intention can be benign one
day and hostile the next day
4) Survival is the primary goal of great powers
a. States seek to maintain their territorial integrity and the autonomy of their
domestic political order
5) Great powers are rational actors
a. They are aware that their external environment might be changing, and they
think strategically about how to survive in it
i. Consider the preferences of other states and how their own behavior
is likely to affect the behavior of those states
- The common principal objective to all states is to survive which is a harmless goal by
itself but when the 5 assumptions are together, they create powerful incentives for
great powers to think and act offensively with regard to each other
- 3 general patterns of behavior:
1
, o Fear
o self-help
o power maximization
State Behavior
- Great powers fear each other
o For a great power all the great powers are potential enemies
9-1-1 problem:
The absence of a central authority to which a threatened state
can turn for help
- Political competition among states is dangerous
o War, mass killing in the battlefield, mass murder of civilians, possible
destruction of states
o These consequences lead states to see each other as competitors but also
potentially deadly enemies
- States have to guarantee their own survival
o Feel vulnerable and alone
o Self-help does not preclude states from forming alliances but:
Only temporary marriages of convenience
o States will act according to their own self-interest and not to the interests to
the international community
It pays to be selfish in a self-help world
- The ideal situation is to be the hegemon in the system => dominate the others
o States pay attention to how power is distributed among them
o Look for opportunities to alter the balance of power in their favor even if it
makes the other states suspicious or hostile
o The pursuit for power only stops when hegemony is achieved
- A great power cannot feel secure without dominating the system
o Difficult to assess how much relative power one state must have over its rivals
before it is secure
o Difficult to predict the direction of change in the balance of power (in the
future)
The best way to be safe is to ensure hegemony now by eliminating any
possibility of challenge by another great power
No status quo powers until they completely dominate the system
2
, - Security competition (states willing to do anything to take advantage of their rivals)
o The best way for a state to survive in anarchy is to take advantage of other
states and gain power at their expense.
o Security dilemma (offensive realism) John Herz 1950
The measures that a state takes to ensure its safety decrease the
others’ security
Creates a vicious circle of security and power accumulation
Every state wants to take advantage of other states and gain power at
their expense
Best defense = good offense
- The states are concerned about relative power not absolute power
o Try to gain as large a power advantage as possible over their potential rivals
Best way to survive
- States that want to maximize absolute power are different
o Only care about the size of their own gains not those of other states
Not motivated by the balance of power logic
Will take any opportunity to get large gains even if another state gains
more in the deal
Power is not a mean to an end (survival) but just an end in itself
Calculated aggression
- Great powers cannot always act on their offensive intentions because their
behavior is influenced by their capacity to realize their desires
o Depends on how military power is distributed among great powers
If the benefits do not outweigh the costs, they wait for a better
opportunity
- Sometimes great powers miscalculate
o Decisions based on imperfect information
o Potential adversaries can have incentives to misrepresent their own strength
or weakness and to conceal their true aims
- Sometimes great powers are unsure about how their own military forces and their
adversary’s forces will perform in the battlefield
- Sometimes GPs are unsure about the behavior of opposing states as well as allies
o Who will join the war as an ally of your adversary? Who will stay out of it?
3
, - Some defensive realists say that the constraints of the international system are so
powerful that offense rarely succeeds and that aggressive great powers end up being
punished
o Threatened states balance against aggressors and ultimately crush them
o Offense-defense balance that is usually heavily tilted toward defense =>
difficult to conquer
- GP should not try to change the balance of power, they should try to preserve it
- Little support for the realists’ claim that offense rarely succeed => proofs that
sometimes it succeeds and sometimes it does not
Hegemony’s limits
- GP wants to gain power over their rivals to hopefully become hegemons
o Once it is done, they become a status quo power
- Hegemon = a state that is so powerful that it dominates every other state in the
system => Only great power
o No state has the power to put up a serious fight against it
A sate that is more powerful than the others great powers in the
system is not a hegemon because there are other GP
- Hegemony = domination of the system
Global Hegemon and Regional Hegemon
- Impossible to achieve global hegemony except if one state achieves a clear nuclear
superiority (not likely)
o Difficult to project power across the world’s oceans onto the territory of a
rival great power
- States that achieve regional hegemony seek to prevent great powers in other regions
from doing the same
- The ideal situation is to be the only regional hegemon is the world => status quo
power
Power and Fear
- How much states fear each other matters
o Determines the severity of their security competition + the probability of a
war
The more fear the more intense security competition and the more
likely is war
Scared states will look hard for opportunities to enhance security and
will be disposed to pursue risky policies to achieve it
4
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