I made these lecture notes in 2022 for the course Scientific and Statistical Reasoning. With these notes, I managed to get an 8.4 on the first interim exam.
Scientific and Statistical
Reasoning Lecture Notes Interim
1
Contents
Lecture 1 - Introduction to SSR & Elements of Arguments....................................................................2
Lecture 2 - Introduction to Statistical Reasoning...................................................................................9
Lecture 3 - Language, Rationality & Bias..............................................................................................11
Lecture 4 - Deductive Arguments and Logic.........................................................................................18
Lecture 5 - Null Hypothesis Significance Testing..................................................................................27
Lecture 6 - Inductive Force and Probability..........................................................................................36
Lecture 7 - T-Distribution and the One-Sample t-Test..........................................................................45
Lecture 8 - Independent and Dependent t-test...................................................................................57
Lecture 9 - Argument Reconstruction & Assessment...........................................................................69
Lecture 10 - Recognising and understanding fallacies..........................................................................70
,Lecture 1 - Introduction to SSR & Elements of
Arguments
Scientific and Statistical Reasoning
Today
Course introduction
What is critical thinking?
What do we do with it?
What will we be doing for the rest of this course?
Identifying arguments
Identifying arguments
Premises and conclusions
Goal:
We want to train you to think critically about scientific psychological research
People believe weird stuff.
This belief can have dire consequences. Such as that people believe that vaccines could cause
autism.
Incivility & Polarisation
Social media might contribute to this polarisation because of their specific algorithms.
When a decision that is supposed to be an informed one becomes politically loaded
(democrats wear facemasks, republicans do not) it could cause problems. As this issue isn't
actually a political debate.
"Because the number of children who had not been vaccinated was officially too small, a
correct-statistical evaluation is almost impossible. But that does not mean that the study
was worthless! This study did in fact show that unvaccinated human-children, in the 2 or
3 examined age categories, had fewer infections and atopic abnormalities, than the
children who had been vaccinated."
It's very difficult to actually say anything about the differences between the two groups,
because the group of unvaccinated children is simply too small to be statistically meaningful.
You can see that the margin of error is very large in these data.
What does ''to think critically'' actually mean?
,The bird will have flown 60 miles. Because the trains will take an hour to collide, meaning the bird
was flying for an hour, at 60 mph.
18 blue socks
36 green socks
How many draws for a matching pair?
3 times. The first time you draw a colour, the next draw matches that colour, or not. When the
colour doesn't match, then you draw another one, which either matches the first one or the
second one.
John is looking at Bobby
Bobby is looking at Jimmy
John is marries
Jimmy is unmarried.
Is a married person looking at an unmarried person?
A. Yes
B. No
C. Cannot be determined
Yes, because if Bobby is married, then he's looking at Jimmy, who is unmarried. But if Bobby is
not married, then John, a married person, is still looking at an unmarried person.
, What is clear thinking?
'thinking that is purposeful, reasoned and goal-directed (...), when the thinker is using skills that are
thoughtful and effective for the particular context and type of thinking task'.
With, among other things, the skills:
Reasoning
Analysing arguments
Reflection
More general definition (Brookfield, 2012):
Identifying assumptions
Evaluating assumptions
Being able to view one's own ideas (in relation to several domains) from several
perspectives
Be able to make well-informed decision based on the above.
Learning Critical Thinking
1. Explicitly learn the skills of critical thinking
E.g., learning how to analyse and evaluate arguments
2. Develop the disposition for effortful thinking and learning
'Many errors occur not because people can't think critically, but because they do
not.''
Flexibility
Persistence
Willingness to self-correct and admit errors
Being mindful
3. Study in ways that increase the probability of trans-contextual transfer (structure training)
E.g., applying argument analysis and evaluation skills to both research as well as
applied topics
4. Make metacognitive monitoring explicit and overt.
''One likely guess is that many of today's young adults will be working at jobs that currently
don't exist and dealing with technologies that dwarf the imagination of present-day science
fiction writers. What do they need to learn during their first two decades of life that will
prepare them for their remaining 60+ years?''
Scientific & Statistical Reasoning
Becoming a scientist involves more than just memorizing a collection of facts:
You will learn to generate, test and review hypotheses and theories.
You will learn to reflect on the process by which knowledge is created.
The critical thinking skills required for this are essential for
Researchers
Therapists
Applied psychologists etc.
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