Een zeer overzichtelijke samenvatting op basis van de slides aangevuld met info uit het handboek (focusboxen en appendices!) en mijn notities uit de les. Gedoceerd door prof Vanneste. Ik behaalde een 17/20! In het Nederlands geschreven. Dit is alles wat je nodig hebt om ook de werkcolleges te begr...
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CHAPTER 1: A TOUR OF THE WORLD .......................................................................................................... 1
1.0 Huidige situatie .................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 De pandemie van 2020 ....................................................................................................................... 2
1.2 De crisis van 2008-9 ................................................................................................................................ 2
1.3 The United States .................................................................................................................................... 4
1.3.1 Do policy makers have the tools to handle the next recession? ................................................. 4
1.3.2 Hoe zorgwekkend is een lage productivity growth? .................................................................... 5
1.4 The EU and the Euro Area....................................................................................................................... 5
1.4.1 Can European unemployment be reduced? ............................................................................... 6
1.4.2 What has the euro done for its members? .................................................................................. 6
1.4.3 Brexit ............................................................................................................................................ 7
1.5 China ........................................................................................................................................................ 7
CHAPTER 2: A TOUR OF THE BOOK ............................................................................................................. 8
2.1. Aggregate (total) output ...................................................................................................................... 8
2.1.1 GDP: production and income ...................................................................................................... 8
2.1.2 Nominal and real GDP ................................................................................................................. 9
2.1.3 GDP: level versus growth rate ................................................................................................... 11
2.2. The unemployment rate .................................................................................................................... 12
2.2.1 How do we measure unemployment? ....................................................................................... 13
2.2.2 Why do economists care about unemployment? ...................................................................... 14
2.3. The inflation rate................................................................................................................................ 15
2.3.1 GDP deflator .............................................................................................................................. 16
2.3.2 Consumer price index ................................................................................................................ 16
2.3.3 Why do economists care about inflation?.................................................................................. 17
2.4. Okun’s law and the Philips curve ...................................................................................................... 18
2.4.1 Okun’s law.................................................................................................................................. 18
2.4.2 Phillips curve ................................................................................................................................... 19
2.5 The short, medium and long run ....................................................................................................... 20
APPENDIX – The construction of real GDP and chain-type indexes ......................................................... 21
CHAPTER 3: The goods market .................................................................................................................... 23
3.1 The composition of GDP ................................................................................................................... 23
3.2 The demand for goods ...................................................................................................................... 24
3.2.1 Consumption (C) ............................................................................................................................. 24
3.2.2 Investment (I) ............................................................................................................................. 25
3.2.3 Government spending (G) ......................................................................................................... 26
3.3 The determination of equilibrium output ........................................................................................... 26
3.3.1 Wiskundige afleiding .................................................................................................................. 27
3.3.2 Grafische afleiding ..................................................................................................................... 27
, 3.3.3 Afleiding met woorden ............................................................................................................... 28
3.3.4 Hoe lang duurt het voordat output wijzigt? ................................................................................ 29
3.4 Investeringen zijn gelijk aan sparen .................................................................................................. 30
3.5 Is the government almachtig? A warning. ........................................................................................ 31
CHAPTER 4: Financial markets I .................................................................................................................... 33
4.1 The demand for money ..................................................................................................................... 33
4.1.1 Deriving the demand of money.................................................................................................. 34
4.2 Determining the interest rate: I.......................................................................................................... 35
4.2.1 Money demand, money supply and the equilibrium interest rate ............................................. 35
4.2.2 Monetary policy and open market operations ........................................................................... 36
4.2.3 Choosing money or choosing the interest rate?........................................................................ 37
4.3 Determining the interest rate: II......................................................................................................... 38
4.3.1 What banks do ........................................................................................................................... 38
4.3.2 The demand and supply for central bank money ...................................................................... 39
4.3.3 FED en ECB: federal runds rate en de refinancing (refi) rate ................................................... 40
4.4. De liquiditeitsval (the liquidity trap) ................................................................................................... 41
APPENDIX: the determination of the interest rate when people hold both currency and deposit accounts
...................................................................................................................................................................... 42
CHAPTER 5: Financial markets: the IS-LM model ......................................................................................... 44
5.1 The goods market and the IS relation............................................................................................... 44
5.1.1 Investment, sales and the interest rate ..................................................................................... 44
5.1.2 Determining output..................................................................................................................... 45
5.1.3 Deriving the IS curve.................................................................................................................. 46
5.1.4 Shifts of the IS curve .................................................................................................................. 46
5.2 Financial markets and the LM relation .............................................................................................. 47
5.2.1 Real money, real income and the interest rate ......................................................................... 47
5.2.2 Deriving the LM curve ................................................................................................................ 48
5.3 The IS-LM model ............................................................................................................................... 48
5.3.1 Budgettair beleid (fiscal policy) .................................................................................................. 49
5.3.2 Monetair beleid (monetary policy) ............................................................................................. 50
5.4. Gebruik maken van een beleidsmix ..................................................................................................... 50
5.5. Het IS-LM model in de realiteit ............................................................................................................. 52
CHAPTER 6: Financial markets II: The extended IS-LM model ..................................................................... 55
6.1 Nominal versus real interest rates .................................................................................................... 55
6.1.1 Nominal and real interest rates in the United Kingdom since 1980 .......................................... 57
6.1.2 Nominal and real interest rates: the zero lower bound and deflation ....................................... 57
6.2 Risk and risk premiums ..................................................................................................................... 58
6.3 The role of financial intermediaries ................................................................................................... 59
6.3.1 The choice of leverage .............................................................................................................. 60
, 6.3.2 Leverage and lending ................................................................................................................ 60
6.3.3 Liquidity ...................................................................................................................................... 61
6.4 Extending the IS-LM model............................................................................................................... 61
6.4.1 Financial shocks and policies .................................................................................................... 62
6.5 From a housing problem to a financial crisis .................................................................................... 63
6.5.1 Housing prices and subprime mortgages .................................................................................. 63
6.5.2 The role of financial intermediaries ........................................................................................... 64
6.5.3 Macroeconomic implications ..................................................................................................... 65
6.5.4 International spillovers ............................................................................................................... 66
6.5.5 The policy response in the US................................................................................................... 66
6.5.6 The policy response in Europe .................................................................................................. 67
CHAPTER 7: The labour market ..................................................................................................................... 69
7.1. A tour of the labour market ............................................................................................................... 69
7.1.1 The large flows of workers ......................................................................................................... 70
7.2. Movements in unemployment ........................................................................................................... 71
7.3. Wage determination .......................................................................................................................... 73
7.3.1 Bargaining .................................................................................................................................. 73
7.3.2 Efficiency wages ........................................................................................................................ 73
7.3.3 Wages, prices and unemployment ............................................................................................ 73
7.3.4 The expected price level (Pe)..................................................................................................... 74
7.3.5 The unemployment rate (u) ....................................................................................................... 74
7.3.6 The other factors (z)................................................................................................................... 74
7.4. Price determination ........................................................................................................................... 74
7.5. The natural rate of unemployment .................................................................................................... 75
7.5.1 The wage-setting relation .......................................................................................................... 75
7.5.2 The price-setting relation ........................................................................................................... 75
7.5.3 Equilibrium real wages and unemployment .............................................................................. 76
7.6. Where we go from here..................................................................................................................... 77
APPENDIX: Wage- and price-setting relations vs. labour supply and labour demand .............................. 77
CHAPTER 8: The Philips curve, the natural rate of unemployment and inflation .......................................... 79
8.1. Inflation, expected inflation and unemployment ............................................................................... 80
8.2. The Phillips curve and its mutations ................................................................................................. 82
8.2.1 The early incarnation ................................................................................................................. 82
8.2.2 The apparent trade-off and its disappearance .......................................................................... 82
8.3. The Phillips curve and the natural rate of unemployment ................................................................ 84
8.4. A summary and many warnings........................................................................................................ 85
8.4.1 Variations in the natural rate across countries and time ........................................................... 85
8.4.2 High inflation and the Phillips curve relation ............................................................................. 86
, 8.4.3 Deflation and the Phillips curve ................................................................................................. 87
APPENDIX: Derivation of the relation between inflation, expected inflation and unemployment .............. 88
CHAPTER 9: From the short run to the medium run: The IS-LM-PC model .................................................. 90
9.1 The IS-LM-PC model ........................................................................................................................ 90
9.2 From the short to the medium run .................................................................................................... 94
9.3 Complications and how things can go wrong ................................................................................... 96
9.3.1 The zero lower bound and deflation spirals .............................................................................. 96
9.4 Fiscal consolidation revisited ............................................................................................................ 98
9.5 The effects of an increase of the price of oil ..................................................................................... 98
9.5.1 Effects of the natural rate of unemployment ............................................................................. 99
9.6 Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................... 100
9.6.1 The short run versus the medium run ..................................................................................... 100
9.6.2 Shocks and propagation mechanisms .................................................................................... 101
CHAPTER 10: The COVID economic crisis .................................................................................................. 102
10.1 The Economic Effects of the Lockdown ............................................................................................ 102
10.2 The Macro Policy Response ........................................................................................................... 104
10.3 The Economy Post-Lockdown ........................................................................................................... 105
10.4 The Economy Post-vaccine ............................................................................................................... 107
CHAPTER 11: The Facts of Growth .............................................................................................................. 109
11.1 Measuring the standard of living ..................................................................................................... 109
11.2 Growth in rich countries since 1950 ................................................................................................ 110
11.2.1 The large increase in the standard of living since 1950 ............................................................ 111
11.2.2 The convergence of output per person ................................................................................... 111
11.3 A broader look across time and space ........................................................................................... 112
11.3.1 Looking across two millennia ................................................................................................... 112
11.3.2 Looking across countries ......................................................................................................... 113
11.4 Thinking about growth: a primer ..................................................................................................... 114
11.4.1 The aggregate production function .......................................................................................... 114
11.4.2 Returns to scale and returns to factors ................................................................................... 114
11.4.3 Output per worker and capital per worker ............................................................................... 114
11.4.4 The sources of growth ............................................................................................................. 115
CHAPTER 12: Saving, capital accumulation and output .............................................................................. 117
12.1 Interactions between output and capital ......................................................................................... 117
12.1.1 The effects of capital on output ............................................................................................... 117
12.1.2 The effects of output on capital accumulation ......................................................................... 118
12.2 The implications of alternative saving rates.................................................................................... 119
12.2.1 Dynamics of capital and output ............................................................................................... 119
12.2.2 The saving rate and output ...................................................................................................... 120
, 12.2.3 The saving rate and consumption ........................................................................................... 122
12.3 Getting a sense of magnitudes ....................................................................................................... 123
12.3.1 The effects of the saving rate on steady-state output ............................................................. 124
12.3.2 The dynamic effects of an increase in the saving rate ............................................................ 124
12.3.3 The saving rate and the golden rule ........................................................................................ 125
12.4 Physical versus human capital........................................................................................................ 126
12.4.1 Extending the production function ........................................................................................... 126
12.4.2 Human capital, physical capital and output ............................................................................. 126
12.4.3 Endogenous growth ................................................................................................................. 127
APPENDIX: The Cobb-Douglas production function and the steady state .............................................. 127
CHAPTER 13: Technological progress and growth ...................................................................................... 129
13.1 Technological progress and the rate of growth .............................................................................. 129
13.1.1 Technological progress and the production function .............................................................. 129
13.1.2 Interactions between output and capital .................................................................................. 130
13.1.3 Dynamics of capital and output ............................................................................................... 131
13.1.4 The effects of the saving rate .................................................................................................. 132
13.2 The determinants of technological progress................................................................................... 133
13.2.1 The fertility of the research process ........................................................................................ 133
13.2.2 The appropriability of research results .................................................................................... 133
13.2.3 Innovation and imitation ........................................................................................................... 134
13.3 Institutions, technological progress and growth ............................................................................. 134
APPENDIX: Constructing a measure of technological progress ............................................................... 136
EXTRA: veranderingen van gA en gN ......................................................................................................... 138
CHAPTER 14: The Challenges of Growth .................................................................................................... 139
14.1 The future of technological progress ................................................................................................. 139
14.2 Robots and unemployment ................................................................................................................ 140
14.3 Growth, churn and inequality ............................................................................................................. 144
14.3.1 The increases in wage inequality ............................................................................................ 145
14.3.2 The causes of increased wage inequality ............................................................................... 145
14.3.3 Inequality and the top 1% ........................................................................................................ 146
14.3.4 Growth and inequality .............................................................................................................. 146
14.4 Climate change and global warming............................................................................................... 148
CHAPTER 18: Openness in goods and financial markets ............................................................................ 149
18.1 Openness in goods markets ........................................................................................................... 149
18.1.1 Exports and imports ................................................................................................................. 150
18.1.2 The choice between domestic goods and foreign goods ........................................................ 151
18.1.3 Nominal exchange rates .......................................................................................................... 151
18.1.4 From nominal to real exchange rates ...................................................................................... 152
, 18.1.5 From bilateral to multilateral exchange rates .......................................................................... 154
18.2 Openness in financial markets ........................................................................................................ 155
18.2.1 The balance of payments ........................................................................................................ 155
18.2.2 The choice between domestic and foreign assets .................................................................. 156
18.2.3 Interest rates and exchange rates ........................................................................................... 157
18.3 Conclusions and a look ahead ........................................................................................................ 160
CHAPTER 19: The goods market in an open economy ............................................................................... 161
19.1 The IS Relation in the Open Economy ........................................................................................... 161
19.1.1 The demand for domestic goods ............................................................................................. 161
19.1.2 The determinants of C, I and G ............................................................................................... 161
19.1.3 The determinants of imports .................................................................................................... 162
19.1.4 The determinants of export ...................................................................................................... 162
19.1.5 Putting the components together............................................................................................. 162
19.2 Equilibrium Output and the Trade Balance ..................................................................................... 163
19.3 Increases in Demand − Domestic or Foreign ................................................................................. 164
19.3.1 Increases in domestic demand ................................................................................................ 164
19.3.2 Increases in foreign demand ................................................................................................... 165
19.3.3 Fiscal policy revisited ............................................................................................................... 166
19.4 Depreciation, the Trade Balance, and Output ................................................................................ 168
19.4.1 Depreciation and the trade balance: the Marshall-Lerner condition ....................................... 168
19.4.2 The effects of a real depreciation ............................................................................................ 169
19.4.3 Combining exchange rate and fiscal policies .......................................................................... 169
19.5 Saving, Investment, and the Current Account Balance .................................................................. 171
APPENDIX: Derivation of the Marshall-Lerner condition .......................................................................... 173
CHAPTER 20: Output, the interest rate and the exchange rate ................................................................... 175
20.1 Equilibrium in the goods markets .................................................................................................... 175
20.2 Equilibrium in the financial markets ................................................................................................ 176
20.2.1 Domestic bonds versus foreign bonds .................................................................................... 176
20.3 Putting goods and financial markets together ................................................................................ 177
20.4 The effects of policy in an open economy ...................................................................................... 178
20.4.1 The effects of monetary policy in an open economy ............................................................... 178
20.4.2 The effects of fiscal policy in an open economy...................................................................... 179
20.5 Fixed exchange rates ...................................................................................................................... 182
20.5.1 Pegs, crawling pegs, bands, the EMS and the euro ............................................................... 182
20.5.2 Monetary policy when the exchange rate is fixed ................................................................... 183
20.5.3 Fiscal policy when the exchange rate is fixed ......................................................................... 183
CHAPTER 21: Exchange rate regimes ......................................................................................................... 186
21.1 The medium run .............................................................................................................................. 186
, 21.1.1 The IS relation under fixed exchange rates ............................................................................ 186
21.1.2 Equilibrium in the short and the medium runs ......................................................................... 186
21.1.3 The case for and against a devaluation .................................................................................. 187
21.2 Exchange Rate Crises under Fixed Exchange Rates .................................................................... 188
21.3 Exchange Rate Movements under Flexible Exchange Rates ........................................................ 188
21.4 Choosing between Exchange Rate Regimes ................................................................................. 189
21.4.1 Common currency areas ......................................................................................................... 189
21.4.2 Hard pegs, currency boards and dollarisation......................................................................... 190
APPENDIX: Deriving the IS Relation under Fixed Exchange Rates ........................................................ 190
,CHAPTER 1: A TOUR OF THE WORLD
• De output w gemeten adhv het reële bruto binnenlands product.
• Een conjunctuurcyclus w gedefinieerd als de periode tss twee
pieken of dalen
• De tweede piek is hoger dan de eerste => groei op LT
1.0 Huidige situatie
• Energieprijzen in Europa: gaan de lucht in
• Europees concurrentievermogen in gevaar
• Reële lonen dalen veel sterker in eurozone > dit is een vorm van compensatie voor het nadeel van
de competitiviteit
• Purchasing Management Index (PMI) = index van de overheersende richting v economische trends
in de industrie en de dienstensector
o Bestaat uit de spreidingsindex die samenvat of de marktomstandigheden, zoals gezien dr de
inkoopmanagers, zich uitbreiden, gelijk blijven of krimpen.
o PMI januari 2023
1
, In september 2022 gingen beiden curves nr beneden en werd er gevreesd voor een recessie. Het
leek toen dat we nr beneden gingen, maar feitelijke gegevens moet je gedateerd bekijken aangezien
cijfers kunnen verschillen over 6 maanden en momenteel is het al weer naar boven gegaan.
1.1 De pandemie van 2020
• De ergste wereldwijde gezondheidscrisis sinds de zogenaamde Spaanse griep in 1918
• De ergste wereldwijde economische crisis sinds de Grote Depressie
• Een heel ander soort economische crisis dan de andere recessies. Ze w nt veroorzaakt dr een
onevenwichtigheid in de economie, maar door een exogene en onverwachte schok
• Deze schok beïnvloedt de economie op drie manieren:
1. Doorbreken van de productieketen => een negatieve aanbodschok
2. Beperking vd mobiliteit van werknemers => een negatieve aanbodschok
3. Daling van het inkomen => een negatieve vraagschok
• Atypisch omdat het dus zowel vraagschok als aanbodschok elementen had
o EXAMENVRAAG: Beschrijf de impact van de pandemie./Hoe bekijken economen het
fenomeen van de pandemie op macro-economisch vlak?
1.2 De crisis van 2008-9
Op de eerste figuur zien we de output growth rates voor de advanced economies (i.e. de 30 rijkste landen
ter wereld) en de developing economies (i.e. de andere 150 landen).
➢ Tot en met 2007 is er een doorgedreven groei.
➢ In 2007 wordt deze expansie beëindigd door een
financiële crisis in de VS.
➢ De huizenprijzen begonnen te dalen nadat ze een
hoogtepunt bereikt hadden door de aangehouden
expansie. Tijdens de expansie werden echter te
veel en te grote hypothecaire leningen gegeven,
waardoor klanten hun maandelijkse betalingen niet
meer konden nakomen. Hierdoor werd de
hypothecaire waarde van een huis groter dan de
marktwaarde.
➢ De hypothecaire leningen werden door banken verpakt in andere effecten en verkocht aan banken
over de hele wereld. De financiële crisis in de VS werd plots een wereldwijde economische crisis.
2
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