All lecture notes of the course Traffic Psychology and sustained mobility. All the 7 lectures, including the guest lecture in week 7. It is written in English.
College 1
Types of models that are being used:
Skill Models
Attitude theories
Utility theories
Risk theories
Safety margins
Performance models
Attention and information processing models
Most models are applied to driving. Driving is self-paced. You need to be alert, it requires
sustained attention. We are not built for these speeds, this places driver seconds from
deaths. In general, it is forgiving. It’s just another human behaviour. A huge amount of people
die while driving.
A multitude of theories. There is not one theory that everyone agrees on and used. Not all of
them are relevant. None widely accepted.
Theories & models in Traffic psychology:
Skill models
The driver’s perceptual and motor skills are what makes them safe. It’s about reaction time,
vision and level of driver training. Crashes occur when Task Demands exceed driver skills
(when the environment asks too much). Young people are more involved in accidents. Also,
older people have higher deaths in traffic because they are more vulnerable than young
people.
Problem is that they are too simplistic. They just link the statistics. Visual attributes
and reaction time found weak relationship to accidents. Exposed to risk situations is
also a factor.
Attitude theories
Theory of Planned Behaviour: elements that are
important are:
Attitude = what I say I think about something
Subjective norm = what I think others think
about something
Perceived control = how much control I think I
have over my behaviour
Intention = what I say I will do
Behaviour = what I actually do
Intention is important here. Behaviour is a different
thing. The intention-behavior/ attitude-behavior gap.
So, using TPB it explains intentions, but the link to behaviour is not so strong. Keep in
mind the difference between intention, attitude and actual behaviour.
They are popular because they are easy to study. It is also common sense, we also think if
people have this intention, it will go that way. It’s to find reasons why do it that way.
Habits are really important. Intentions are only significant related to behaviour when habit
was weak. Only in a new situation, then intentions do say something about how we are likely
to behave. If we have established behavior, habits are more important.
,Utility theories
Maximize gain and minimizes loss. We are rational beings. We weight the pros and cons.
Popular in modelling. It assumes a homo economicus but tries to explain Homo Sapiens. Not
the most common in traffic psychology.
Example: Slovic (2002). Shows we are not that rational.
Also applied to a study of Cooper & Culyer (1968). Shows that utility models do not
always work.
Risk/motivational theories
Takes in account motives. Used in traffic psychology a lot. It’s about why do we behave in a
certain way.
Risk Homeostasis Model.
Idea is that we always have a target level of risk we always want to experience. When we
don’t experience it, we will behave in such a way we will behave towards that level. We will
have it on the same level all the time. Individuals have them, society has them too. If we
don’t have the level, we will do something to get this level.
There is some proof for it behavioral adaptation (we do something, and people adapt to
that intervention). People with ABS took more risks than without ABS. This same effect was
found with seatbelts with taking risks with ABS. People want to stay at the same risk level.
Some people over rely on the new systems (like the blind spot system). That’s why those
people happen to be in more accidents.
Problem with these theories don’t make testable predictions. It also implies that we have a
risk sensor. Difficult to falsify. Anything that you do in traffic will be undone by the people.
That’s not true. Seatbelts/ road improvements actually made it better. It also implies that we
can learn from crashes but that’s not the case.
What is true is that we do adapt to our environment.
Risk Allostasis Theory.
Feeling of risk plays an important role. Feeling of Risk is an indicator of perceived task
difficulty. How difficult is a task has a role on acceptance.
Based on the Somatic Marker Theory. Stimuli are marked with emotions. Emotions
are body states. But: people who lack emotion then should be irrational (not true) but
can perform well in tests.
Moves away from risk, to perceived task difficulty. He talks about a risk threshold.
Allostasis is more dynamic, homeostasis is more fixed target level of task difficulty or risk.
Central is:
- Capability (what can we deal with)
- Task demands (what is required from the situation).
At lower speeds, there was found no change in task difficulty/ feelings or risk. But it increases
with a higher speed. It implies a threshold. At a certain moment we experience risk. This was
also found with time headway (distance to next car).
, Zero-Risk theory.
States that we prefer to have no feelings of risk. When we experience risk, it is a warning.
There is a risk threshold. It is a learning theory. Not easy to test this theory.
Risk/threat avoidance theories:
- They have in common that we do not like risk, we avoid risk. What is risky depends
on experience.
- Risk = the probability of an outcome x the consequence of that outcome.
- We do not experience risk in the same way.
Safety Margin Model.
It’s a threshold model. We prefer to behave in an area and feel comfortable there. Motivated
to be comfortable. Driving is automatic. Based on an old theory of Gibson and Crooks.
Overall, two categories of theories:
1.Constant perception of risk
2.Threshold perception.
Other models:
Michon’s model. Model about performance and decision taking. How do we behave.
Based on Rasmussen – human performance.
We perform on three levels:
1. Knowledge level (thinking)
2. Rule level (recognition)
3. Skill level (no effort)
Knowledge level = Sit down and
consider alternatives. Try to
avoid this.
Rule level = Pattern matching.
Similar than in the past, I know
what to do.
Skill level = We don’t think
about it.
Knowledge level
Rule level
Skill level
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