STMI Summary
2.1 Scenario-Driven Roadmapping to cope with uncertainty: It’s
application in the construction industry
R. Siebelink, J.I.M. Halman, E. Hofman
Roadmapping: matching short-term actions to long-term goals
Robust strategy: when the strategy is successful under a wide range of circumstances
• the essence of strategy is to build a posture that is so strong (and
potentially flexible) in selective ways that the organization can achieve its
goals despite the unforeseeable ways external forces may actually
interact when time comes
The paper argues that there is still a gap in terms of having a sound methodology to incorporate
robustness into business roadmaps; they cannot cope with uncertainty in the environment → they
chose to combine scenario planning and business roadmapping to fill the gap (Scenario-Driven
Roadmapping approach)
Results showed that applying Scenario-Driven Roadmapping was effective in both reducing
environmental uncertainty and in directing innovation towards promising business activities when
applied at a major Dutch construction firm
Business roadmap: a visual representation of the evolution over time of those markets that a
company wants to serve in the future, the products it wants to offer on these
markets, and the technologies and other capabilities that are necessary to
make these products → useful in formulating and implementing strategies
Ensures that the right capabilities are in place at the right time and that the
firm can communicate complicated issues to both employees and external
stakeholders
2 critical components in the development of a business roadmap:
• Formulating a strategy
• Developing the strategy into a roadmap
• T-plan approach integrates both in 3 stages:
1. Planning stage
2. Workshop stage
3. Rollout stage
Roadmapping and its preceding process are often conducted while assuming that there is a certain
level of predictability about the future (more or less like the present): firms assume a single future
and map their innovative route based on this unique view of the future.
Environmental uncertainty consists of 2 elements:
• A lack of information available for making accurate predictions about the future
• The uncertainty is not a constant feature of the environment; rather it is dependent on the
perceptions of organization members (may vary between individuals)
Not the changes, but the unpredictability of changes cause environmental uncertainty
3 types of environmental uncertainty:
• State uncertainty: lack of understanding on how elements in the external environment might
change and how these elements are interrelated
, • Effect uncertainty: lack of knowledge about how the changing external environment will
affect the organization
• Response uncertainty: Lack of understanding about the options an organization has to
respond to the changing environment and/or the inability to predict the consequences of
these response options
Several sources of uncertainty:
• Macro-economic and social-political uncertainty
• Market uncertainty
• Technological uncertainty
Scenario planning: probing the future to gain insights into what is likely to occur in the future by
capturing a wide range of possible future environments and how one could
anticipate those changes
Goal: integrate scenario planning into roadmapping to obtain a robust
roadmap
Scenarios: stories about the way the future might turn out; stimulates managers to
think in different ways; it reveals assumptions that one makes about the
future, it structures uncertainty, and it can create a different view and
awareness about the possibility of changing environments
Plausible futures rather than predictions
Should be developed based on the driving forces that shape the future and
have impact on the success of a business
Robustness is achieved through basing strategies on the common elements
found in the scenarios
Pitfall: viewing the future as more-or-less like the present → prevents innovations
Scenario-driven roadmapping: simultaneously cope with uncertainty and prepare for the future
(widely appreciated for its communicative and directive strengths); integrates scenario planning into
roadmapping to arrive at a robust roadmap (resulting business roadmap is able to cope with multiple
future environments + prevents firm from assuming 1 future and thus taking a huge risk)
Scenario-diven roadmapping – 6 phases:
1. Preparing the workshops: a project team needs to be formed that guides the development of
the roadmap and conducts preparatory activities for the workshop. The team determines the
scope for the business roadmap, and conducts other preparatory activities such as designing
the layout of the business roadmap and determining both the workshop schedule and the
approach for the various analyses that will be performed during the workshops + informs
workshop attendees
2. Analysing the current situation: in order to arrive at both a comprehensive set of driving
forces and a clear overview of the ‘state uncertainty’ facing a company, driving forces should
be examined at the macro-, meso-, and micro-environmental levels. At the end of this phase
II, a company will have a set of relevant driving forces, a list of its current activities and
served markets, and a list of its strengths and weaknesses
3. Exploring future business environments: for each driving force, a range of alternative
projections is conceived. Various scenarios need to be developed following basic scenario
planning methodologies
4. Determining robust areas: Although each scenario is based on a unique set of projections for
the driving forces, there will be implications for the firm that are (more or less) generic for all
developed scenarios. These shared implications may result from driving forces for which the
future is considered certain – and thus these developmental directions are included in all
, scenarios. A SWOT analysis is conducted, giving high-level areas that can be further
elaborated in the business roadmap. At the end of phase IV, a company has established a list
of likely implications and possesses a list of robust, high-level focus areas and preconditions
that can be included in the business roadmap
5. Designing the business roadmap: determine which (market) segments will be prioritized for
the coming years, determine aims and customer’s key requirements in these segments,
determine products/processes to be developed in these segments; result is complete
business roadmap that can cope with environmental uncertainty as it is based on robust
high-level areas and preconditions
6. Implementing the roadmap: the firm communicates its roadmap and keeps it up-to-date to
reflect current situations (roadmap development process is continuous, it needs to be
updated at certain times). A firm has ensured that its roadmap will be successfully used
Roadmapping methods have difficulties in either coping with uncertainty or else in clearly addressing
alternative future business environments while retaining the communicative and directive strengths
of roadmapping.
The scenario-driven roadmapping approach was considered an appropriate way to reduce
environmental uncertainty and to direct innovation towards promising and high-priority business
activities → the approach prevents a firm from focusing on a single future business environment be
forcing it to consider the possibility of unexpected but not unrealistic alternative futures → increased
likelihood of success in the long term
2.2 Technology roadmapping – A planning framework for evolution
and revolution
R. Phaal, C.J.P. Farrukh, D.R. Probert
This paper considers the use of roadmaps for 2 main perspectives:
• Company perspective: roadmaps that allow technology developments to be integrated with
business planning, and the impact of new technologies and market developments to be
assessed
• Multiorganizational: roadmaps that seek to capture the environmental landscape, threats
and opportunities for a particular group of stakeholders in a technology or application area
Technology roadmaps have great potential for supporting the development and implementation of
integrated strategic business, product and technology plans, provided companies have the
information, process and tools to produce them. Technology roadmapping is a flexible technique that
is widely used within industry to support strategic long-range planning. It provides a structured
means for exploring and communicating the relationships between evolving and developing markets,
products and technologies over time
Technology: a type of knowledge, which is applied (different from other
knowledge), focusing on the know-how of the organization
Explicit technological knowledge: that which has been articulated, together with the physical
manifestations of technology (report, user guide)
Tacit technological knowledge: that which cannot be easily articulated, and which relies on
training and experience (welding, design skills)
Technology management: addresses the effective identification, selection, acquisition,
development, exploitation and protection of technologies
(product, process and infrastructural) needed to achieve,
, maintain [and grow] a market position and business
performance in accordance with the company’s objectives;
addresses the processes needed to maintain a stream of
products and services to the market; achieve a balance
between market ‘pull’ and technology ‘push’
Technology strategy: should not be developed independently from the business strategy, but
rather that technological resources should be considered as an integral part
of business planning
Business strategy: aligning the activities of the firm in such a way as to generate a sustainable
competitive position in the market place
3 questions used to stimulate the development of a business strategy, involving tech considerations:
• What basis?—The selection of a generic strategic approach (e.g., cost leadership,
differentiation or focus)
• Which direction?—Identification and selection of alternative directions (e.g., do nothing,
withdraw, consolidation, market penetration, product development, market development,
integration, diversification)
• How?—The identification and selection of alternative methods (e.g., internal development,
acquisition, joint development)
Technology S-curve: represents technical performance as a function of time or research effort and
its shape is influenced by market demand, scientific knowledge and level of
investment or innovation
Technology transitions: the dynamics of sociotechnical change in 3 layers:
• Macro: evolving sociotechnical landscapes
• Meso: a patchwork of regimes
• Micro: novel configurations
Technology roadmapping: powerful technique for supporting technology management and
planning, especially for exploring and communicating the dynamic
linkages between technological resources, organizational objectives
and the changing environment
Typical feature/benefit: the use of a time-based structured (and
often graphical) framework to develop, represent and communicate
strategic plans, in terms of the coevolution and development of
technology, products and markets
The generic roadmap: a time-based chart, comprising a number of layers that typically
include both commercial and technological perspectives
2 extremes of roadmap forms:
• Technology push: divergent and looking for opportunities
• Market pull: aiming for customer defined product
8 types of roadmaps in terms of intended purpose:
• Product planning: (most common) the insertion of technology into manufactured products
(often including more generations of a product)
• Service/capability planning: service-based enterprises; focussing on how technology supports
organizational capabilities
• Strategic planning: supporting the evaluation of different opportunities or threats, typically
at the business level
