Dit zijn mijn volledige aantekeningen van alle colleges van Research Methods in Political Science dat wordt gegeven in het tweede jaar van IRO. Alles wat er staat over het tentamen gaat over het eerste tentamen in oktober 2020.
Lecture 1.1 Overview
Quizzes (10%)
• Quizzes will be uploaded the latest on Thursday and need to be completed before
Friday 6 p.m. serve as a self-check, figure out how you’re doing (performance does
not count towards your grade).
• Replace questions on Presenters Wall and will give you an idea of what MC questions
on the final exam will look like.
• But it might also look like a short assignment (design your own question based on the
material).
• He will count the number of successfully completed assignments participation
Final Exam (90%)
• Final Exam: Oct 19, 2020, 13:00-16:00, online
• Content: Literature and lectures
• Format:
1) MC questions (70% of final exam grade)
2) Open questions (30% of final exam grade)
Lecture 1.2 Introduction to Research Methods
Scientific Research
• Common goals are to develop a better understanding of political
1) Events
2) Decisions
3) Or actions
• Whether by states, groups, individuals both domestically and internationally
• One obvious question is to find out why political events happen
causes and reasons behind decisions and actions
• Another question is what are the consequences that come out of these events,
decisions or actions and to assess their impact.
• Another goal might be to understand the actual process of how decisions are made,
and actions are taken
•
• For researchers such explanations are usually summarized in theories that attempt to
explain the political world.
1) Theory: Why? How? – Explanations & Predictions
Such theories offer explanations or predictions for why things happen or under
what conditions (Why? How?)
2) Method: Evidence? Data? – Procedures & Methods
In order to test the theory or to develop it in the first-place researchers use
scientific methods to collect evidence or data (Note that data refers to any kind
of information not just quantitative numerical data). No matter the form of the
data there are certain procedures and methods researchers tend to use
3) Analysis: Description & Theory/Hypothesis Testing
Any collected evidence has to be analyzed to simple description of what has
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been observed or it follows a logic of theory testing that is an assessment of
whether the found evidence does or does not support the predictions from the
theory. Note that these predictions are often stated in the form of a hypothesis
explicit statement of cause and effect relationship.
• Good theories need to make sense of past and future events widely applicable
Naïve Science vs Scientific Method
• Common sense explanations can be very risky
there is no way to determine whether they are correct
1) Personal experience
is rather error-prone bc it may rely on inaccurate observations,
overgeneralizations, anecdotal evidence etc.
2) Intuitions
can be correct, but they can as easily be wrong bc it may rely on selective
observations
if you toss a coin and it lands on head a few times you expect it to land on
tails while the chances are just as big as before
3) Authority
We rely on authority all the time when we trust experts to give us the right
answers
4) Appeals to Tradition, Custom & Faith
Such explanations can be correct, but they can also be wrong
5) Magic, Superstition & Mysticism
They will not pass any scientific standards
• Naïve science tends to fail mostly bc explanations rely on insufficient / incomplete
data. Most are likely to introduce some kind of bias or selective choice of evidence or
misperceptions.
• Scientific Method does this differently
1) Systematic Process
They follow a systematic process that is controlled step by step.
This makes it possible to understand and critically evaluate what a researcher
does and how the evidence is established
2) Falsifiable Theories
It must be possible in principle to show that a theory is wrong.
A theory is a simplified model of reality that offers an explanation that can be
tested with data.
The only way to provide support for a theory is with the possibility that it
might be wrong.
This is the only way to conduct a meaningful test.
3) Replication
The idea that research can and should be repeated to see if initial findings hold
or whether they were just a chance result.
This makes sure that findings are reliable.
4) Reflective & Self-Critical Approach
Researchers need to be careful and always double-check whether they missed
sth or fell into some kind of bias.
They have to be willing to address problems and correct their mistakes.
5) Cumulative & Self-Correcting Process
Where evidence is reported, mistakes are identified and subsequently
corrected.
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6) Cyclical Process
Where researchers answer questions but also raise new questions.
Data and observations are used for the development of theories and theories
are subsequently tested with new observations and data. These new findings
will often lead to revised theories.
Wheel of Science
• Wheel of Science:
1) Question/Puzzle
Answering this question should contribute to theoretical body of knowledge
but also help to solve problems in the real world that lead to better political
decisions, policies and outcomes.
2) Conceptualization
Key concepts and characteristics are clearly defined.
Offering dictionary definitions for all key terms.
3) Operationalization
Translate the abstract definitions into sth that can be measured and observed.
Description of how concepts can be measured.
4) Research Design
Choosing a design that allows us to collect the evidence that we need to answer
the RQ.
EX: In-depth case studies of individual cases to small comparative designs to
large N designs (population surveys).
Also includes case selection.
5) Observation
Once design and measurement is settled, the collection of empirical data or
observations more generally can begin.
6) Data Analysis
Once the data collection is completed, the collected evidence needs to be
analyzed.
Ranges from descriptive summaries, statistical analyses of quantitative data or
other forms of qualitative and critical analyses.
7) Interpretation
Finally, the findings are interpreted by the researcher and discussed in the
context of existing theories and knowledge.
If everything works out, you can answer the RQ you started with.
But most of the time you will also come across new evidence and findings that
will raise new questions, starting the whole process again.
• All steps of the process are linked to theory that helps to explain the RQ or helps to
solve the puzzle we want to explain. When we start with a theory, everything serves to
test that theory.
• Note that this process is not a clear sequence as it might seem.
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•
Why Research Methods?
• It evolves from intuitions and anecdotes to systematic approaches of establishing
evidence.
• It is question- and problem-driven, which makes it a contribution to both science and
the real world.
• Research methods are useful tools, that provide transparency and replicability of
research.
• Many different approaches exist that are not better or worse per se. Some are better
suited to answer certain questions. Different goals, different designs. Ideally, different
methods complement and benefit from each other.
Methodological pluralism & diversity
• You can think of research methods as both a constraint and an opportunity. Constraint
because you have to follow the rules and procedures that specific designs require. But
by following these rules it offers the opportunity to generate useful data and for the
researcher to draw meaningful conclusions.
• Methods and approaches are similar across different social sciences. But different
fields might use different tools more frequently than others.
• The nature of the RQ should guide the appropriate method to answer it.
Example: Global Warming
• Sometimes even the most straightforward evidence can be open to interpretation.
• It is not always easy to interpret scientific trends.
Why Healthy Scepticism is Good
• Researchers have started replicated older studies and the outcome has been rather
striking (mostly in the field of psychology).
• Scientific journals are eager to publish a study that shows exciting results without
using extensive scrutiny to check the research first.
• In the short run, be critical of research with great claims such as ‘all alcohol is bad’.
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