A FUTURE WITHOUT RUSSIAN NATURAL GAS
A SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Student name
Student number
Bachelor of Science Tourism
Wageningen University & Research
Sustainable Technology Development
ENP-37803
Teacher name
Teacher name
08-03-2022
, Introduction
The necessity of depending on Russian energy resources, such as gas and coal, is increasingly
being debated. Ever since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the 24 th of February, 2022 (NU.nl,
2022), it has been suggested that Europe’s dependency on Russian resources should be decreased.
Consequently, the International Energy Agency (IEA; 2022) has formulated a 10-point plan to Reduce
the European Union’s reliance on natural gas from Russia. This essay will analyze the scenario as put
forward by the IEA, starting with its relation to the hot topic of sustainability. For convenience
purposes, the 10-point plan has been briefly lined out in Appendix 1 (p. 8).
Natural gas usage and sustainability
The usage of natural gas has several consequences on the environment. Despite it being
considered to be less polluting than coal and oil, burning it causes carbon dioxide to be emitted.
Additionally, due to an increase in gas consumption over the past century, the number of carbon
dioxide emissions has increased heavily (Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, 2020). Moreover,
when burned improperly, carbon monoxide, a highly poisonous gas, is created (Connecticut State,
2021). In addition to emissions, the drilling of gas also has a negative impact on the environment and
society. For example, in Groningen, the Netherlands, devastating tremors are caused by the drilling of
gas, which consequently damage inhabitants’ homes (Reed, 2019). Next to the effects gas usage has
on the environment and society, gas is also a limited resource and a time comes in which humanity
will run out of gas (Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere, 2019). The aforementioned
consequences of gas usage lead to the argument that despite natural gas being a more sustainable
alternative to coal and oil, an even more sustainable alternative must be implemented in the current
urban network in order for humans to not exceed the planetary boundaries. However, the main topic of
discussion in relation to natural gas usage is currently the reduction of dependency on Russian gas in
relation the Russia-Ukraine war.
Scenario analysis
The unit of analysis of this essay, the 10-point plan of the IEA to reduce the EU’s dependency
on Russian natural gas, is subject to several pitfalls as described by Geels & Smit (2000). For example,
the first pitfall, which includes expectations being biased by current cultural concerns, can be applied
in this context. As previously mentioned, while arguments relating to sustainability could be made for
reducing (Russian) gas use, the primarily reason is formed around the Russia-Ukraine war. The use of
Russian coal and gas are the main sources of EU funding of the Russian war, leading to a wish of the
EU member states to accelerate the abolishment of Russian gas. As such, the 10-point plan, which is
