Samenvatting Regions in Development: artikelen en
hoorcolleges
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Artikel + Hoorcollege Asia 1 – Introduction to the region
Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century
Asia is going through fast economical transformations:
- in 2050 it could have the same purchasing power as in Europe.
- In 2050 it could earn 52% of the global GDP
Thus the region could re-establish its dominant position that it had in the 17 th
century (before the European industrial
BUT: to achieve this measures need to be taken: some hard challenges need to
be addressed
The challenges:
1) increasing inequality within Asian countries which could undermine social
cohesion and stability
2) increasing inequality between Asian countries which could destabilize the
region
3) the danger of the middle-income trap countries that are too expensive for
labour intensive industries but which are also to underdeveloped for knowledge
and capital intensive industries. They see a stagnation in their economic growth
and stay trapped with a middle income population.
4) increasing competition for natural resources
5) global warming and climate change which could threaten agricultural
production, coastal areas and major urban areas
6) poor governance and weak institutional capacity.
these challenges influence each other
Eventually there are two possible outcomes for Asia in the future:
1) it becomes the most powerful economic region in the world ‘The Asian
Century’ occurs
2) the region will be staying in the middle-income trap.
In the end 7 countries will be the most important for the economic development
of Asia: China, Japan, Thailand, India, Indonesia, South Korea and Malaysia. In
2050, there would be no more poor countries in Asia.
Actions needed differ between the Asian countries, but some contours can be
outlined. Actions need to be taken at three levels:
1) National strategic and policy action
2) Collective regional action regional cooperation
3) Global agenda, Asia in the world community
1) National strategic and policy action
7 intergenerational actions are important on the national political agenda:
- Growth and inclusion economic growth needs to be accompanied with
income levelling and equality: further inclusion and polarisation must be
prevented. It is thus not only about reducing poverty, but also about
equality in work, gender and race.
- Entrepreneurship, innovation and technological development
entrepreneurship is important to stimulate growth. Instead of copying the
ideas of the West, Asia needs to create own ideas (see Japan).
- Massive urbanization the urbanization must be well-led by governments
think about housing, employment, education, sanitation compact,
, environmental friendly cities need to be developed. They need to be
efficient and effective.
- Financial transformation Asia must become more dominant on the
financial surface. A form-in-between must be found between the total free
market and a state-led economy.
- Radical reduction in the intensity of energy and natural resource use
because Asia has the biggest population and production, a lot of pressure
comes on the natural resources realise renewable energy is important
- Climate Change because of the big population these challenges need to
be addressed
- Governance and institutions realisation of good governments and
institutions which stimulate economic growth is crucial. Also a middle-class
is emerging which demands a bigger political vote. The most important
step is decreasing the corruption.
There are three sorts of countries in Asia:
1) High-income developed countries these countries need to lead the rest of
Asia in two ways: realise technological breakthroughs to realise the Asian century
and create a more general sense of well-being instead of pure economic growth
(people also need to be happy).
2) Fast growing converging economies need to avoid the middle-income trap.
Important is to stimulate the business climate and to decrease the inequalities.
Important is a flexible, well-educated worker class.
3) Slow- or modest-growth aspiring economies important is to realise economic
growth. This can be realised by for example improving education, infrastructure,
business climate and free market trade.
2) Collective regional action
It can contribute to Asia’s long-term stability and peace. Reasons to do it:
- It can make Asian countries less vulnerable for economic shocks like
economic crises
- It can help reduce inequalities between Asian countries (which could lead
to conflict)
- It could be an important bridge between Asian countries and the rest of the
world
An Asian economic community needs must be based on two principles:
1) openness
2) transparency
The rest of Asia needs to emulate the success of East Asia open markets with
strong institutions
Crucial: strong political leadership
3) Global Agenda
The region needs to take care of more global challenges because of its economic
importance and overweight move from a passive onlooker in the debate to the
most active participant and leader.
When an Asian country makes domestic decisions, it needs to consider the global
consequences.
Also important: the rest of the world also needs to be safe, stabile and
economical growing.
Open regionalism is crucial the world is more important than the region.
To realize the Asian century, there will be a lot of ups and downs. The way in
which Asian countries come out of crises will sign their future.
, Asian century Middle-income trap (Latin-America)
4 intangibles will determine Asia’s long-term destiny:
1) the ability for political leaders to remain on their posts with the ups and downs
and to stay positive and rule with a mature, far-sighted and enlightened
leadership.
2) the willing for Asia to emulate East-Asia in their pragmatical policy making
3) building a greater trust and confidence on their big economies, which is vital
for regional cooperation
4) the possibility for political leaders to modernise governance and institutions,
where transparency and accountability is important.
Artikel 1 + Hoorcollege Asia 2 – Population and demography
of Asia
Populations trends in Asia and the Pacific
In 2013 there were 4,3 people in the Asian-Pacific region, this is 60% of the
world’s total. The annual growth rate is ‘only’ 1 percent. This is relative low, but
in absolute numbers it is still huge. The relative percentage can’t be high
because there are already so many people in Asia.
The region has seen the demographic transition: the transition from high fertility
and mortality rates to low fertility and mortality rates. Now the fertility rate is the
replacement rate (2,1).
Different Asian countries are at different phases of the demographic transition
model:
- Japan already has an old population (phase 5)
- South Korea, Singapore an old population is emerging (phase 4)
- China at the top of her share of working population (phase 3)
- Afghanistan, Samoa Islands still an increasing working population (phase
2)
Some countries already have low fertility rates because of specific reasons
(Russia, Georgia). In combination with outward migration this can mean a
population decrease. Other countries still have a population increase because of
inward migration, even with low fertility rates (Macau, Singapore).
Measures that can be taken to increase the population growth:
- Russia: stimulate inward migration
- South Korea: increase the fertility rate
Population ageing two consequences:
1) people live longer
2) the share of older people of the total population increases
Old-age support ratio decreases the extent in which the working population
pays money to finance the elderly dependents consequence: decreasing of
pension heights, high pressure for the working population.
Policy recommendations with an increasing old population:
1) include population issues in development planning
Demographic changes are happening quick demographic transformations need
to become more important in policy making for example: pension reforms,
education
