Härkönen, J. (2014). Divorce: Trends, patterns, causes,
consequences
Goal: This chapter provides an overview to what is known about divorce, its trends, cross-national
variation, predictors, and consequences.
This underlines the heterogeneity of divorces and the importance of factors that act as barriers to
divorce or the possible options beyond it, and of the need for looking beyond marital quality and
satisfaction as determinants. Divorce, in other words, is a multifaceted event.
Trends and cross-national differences in divorce:
Crude divorce rate = the number of divorces per 1000 individuals in the population.
Divorce rates were higher in all the countries represented in Fig 1 at the beginning of new
millennium than just after the First World War, but there are cross-national differences.
The overall trend corresponds with a long-term increase in marital instability at the individual level.
Cohort effects = differences between groups of people who shared a critical experience during the
same time interval.
Period effects = refer to influences which (at least potentially) affect all marriages, regardless of when
the couples married.
How to explain cross-national differences?
- Cohort effects are responsible for divorce trends to the extent that new marriage cohorts
with attitudes and practices replace earlier ones. Divorce researchers generally agree that
period effects dominate over cohort effects.
- The trends in female employment and in divorce rates have closely followed one another.
Economic explanations have focused on the relative deterioration of men’s economic
fortunes in many countries. SDT links the changes in family behavior to the increases in
individualism and other postmaterial values. Neither of these can explain the big picture.
- Divorce attitudes often seemed to adjust to changing realities instead of providing the initial
push to increased divorce.
- Recent research has generally concluded that liberalization of divorce laws did cause short-
term spikes in divorce rates, but effects were not lasting
- Interpretation of trends: people were more ready, willing and able to divorce
Who divorces? The predictors of divorce
Recent stabilization of marriages in many countries. Older age at marriage is associated with lower
divorce risk. This and increases in educational levels contribute to the stabilization of marriage in the
US. Increases in non-marital cohabitation mask the overall instability of couple relationships.
Predictors:
- Low marital satisfaction
- Incompatibility, and behavioral and relationship problems
- Psychological and relational problems, division of housework
- Life course stages and prior experiences of the partner
- The more prior partnerships one has, the higher the divorce risk
- Being married or having cohabited before
- Migration of one of the partners
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