Mancosa Risk Modelling Revision

PRACTICE EXERCISE


1.1 Calculate the Average Impact for each of the risks using a non-aggregated approach. (15 Marks)
Average Impact = EMV (Expected Monetary Value)
Risk ID Probability (%) Impact EMV (Probability * Impact)
1 45 % 1 200 000 540000
2 65% 360 000 234000
3 70 560 000 392000
4 35 720 000 252000
5 30 1 020 000 306000
6 60 250 000 150000
7 80 760 000 608000
8 20 940 000 188000
9 15 196 000 29400
10 10 240 000 24000




1.2 Calculate the Average Impact of these risks using an aggregated approach. (5 Marks)

,Risk ID Probability (%) Impact EMV (Probability * Impact)
1 45 % 1 200 000 540000
2 65% 360 000 234000
3 70 560 000 392000
4 35 720 000 252000
5 30 1 020 000 306000
6 60 250 000 150000
7 80 760 000 608000
8 20 940 000 188000
9 15 196 000 29400
10 10 240 000 24000
2723400

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