Lecture 5: Step 4 - The Intelligence Collection Plan 9
Lecture 6: Alternative System 10
, 1
Lecture 1: Introduction
Introduction on Warning
Indicator & Warning: Basic model of indicator-based intelligence for a warning analysis.
Intelligence’s purpose:
● Warning is a fundamental reason for intelligence activity.
● Aim = prevent a threat from coming to fruition.
● Why do we warn?
○ Provide early warning of potential threats by an in-depth study of a developing
situation.
○ Inform consumers/decision-makers of future developments in time to take action.
○ Reduce the effects of adverse developments.
What causes an intelligence failure?
1. Primary cause = lack of intelligence.
➔ Tasking too limited (e.g., UK/Iraq).
➔ Special means of collection are inadequately used (e.g., NL/Srebrenica).
➔ Events NOT planned.
➔ Encryption, one-time pads (e.g., Pearl Harbour attack).
2. Failure to correctly interpret the upcoming events:
a. Failure to connect the dots.
b. Unavailability of information.
c. Overestimation.
d. Mirror-Imaging: Analysts may perceive/process information through the filter of
personal experience, undermining objectivity.
e. Lack of communication.
f. Overconfidence.
g. Complacency (e.g., Falklands War).
h. Conventional wisdom.
i. Underestimation: Through national/cultural biases (e.g., ignorance, arrogance,
prejudice, ethnocentricity).
➔ Worst case scenario NOT developed, NO accurate critical indicators or a
misinterpretation of critical indicators.
j. Subordination to policy.
3. Failure to evaluate the existing intelligence in time (e.g., overload problem).
➔ Causes:
◆ Encryption = takes too long.
◆ Overload = too much information.
◆ Translation (e.g., fast evolution of the Tuareg language).
◆ Sources in enemy territory CANNOT be reached.
➔ Timeliness = easier to get insight into the long-term aims, BUT harder to gain good
insights into short-term aims.
➔ Level = easier to get insight on the strategic level, BUT harder to gain insight on the
operational & tactical level.
, 2
➔ When could it happen?
◆ Cry wolf mechanism.
◆ Intelligence is filtered by ‘noise barriers’ (e.g., enemy, international
environment).
◆ Self-Generated Noise: When policymakers are NOT able to adjust their
expectations about a party’s intentions & capabilities on the basis of reality.
◆ ‘Sheer Nerve Scenario’: Opponent will NOT have the ‘sheer nerve’ to
conduct an attack.
Intelligence cycle = an intelligence failure is rarely due to 1 single cause.
Warning: Can be associated with 5 possible aspects:
1. Hit: A warning is given + event happens.
2. Miss: NO warning given + event happens (e.g., poor weather on Normandy Beach landing in
WWII).
3. False Alarm: A warning is given, BUT the event does NOT happen.
4. Correct Rejection: A negative warning [or NO warning] is given & the event does NOT
happen (e.g., Nazi Germany was NOT capable anymore of producing nuclear weapons).
➔ Saves resources from being spent.
5. Success: A warning is given + event does NOT happen by intelligence-based intervention.
How to deal with warning issues?
● Analytical methods.
● Based on methodology.
● Methodological insight in the method used.
Explanatory research:
➔ Characteristics & demands:
◆ Alpha (α): Chance that you incorrectly conclude that there is a significant
relationship between phenomena.
● Social sciences 5%.
● Intelligence 10-90% depending on the issue at hand.
◆ Beta (β): Chance that you do NOT discover a relationship between phenomena.
● Social sciences 20%.
● Intelligence 0.01-5% depending on the issue at hand.
◆ Analytical accuracy: Degree of closeness/agreement of the assessed course of action
to its actual (true) course of action.
● E.g., a broken watch with the right time twice a day.
◆ Analytical Confidence: Probability/certainty that the actual (true) course of action
will be covered by a described variation of the assessed course of action.
● E.g., a broken watch with the actual time within a 6-hour margin of error.
➔ Warning methods always have issues of α & β reduction. Emphasis depends on the RQ &
release process’ phase:
● Warning problem = to NOT miss a threat → reduction β.
● Critical indicators = if a scenario is unfolding → reduction α Overall.
Voordelen van het kopen van samenvattingen bij Stuvia op een rij:
Verzekerd van kwaliteit door reviews
Stuvia-klanten hebben meer dan 700.000 samenvattingen beoordeeld. Zo weet je zeker dat je de beste documenten koopt!
Snel en makkelijk kopen
Je betaalt supersnel en eenmalig met iDeal, creditcard of Stuvia-tegoed voor de samenvatting. Zonder lidmaatschap.
Focus op de essentie
Samenvattingen worden geschreven voor en door anderen. Daarom zijn de samenvattingen altijd betrouwbaar en actueel. Zo kom je snel tot de kern!
Veelgestelde vragen
Wat krijg ik als ik dit document koop?
Je krijgt een PDF, die direct beschikbaar is na je aankoop. Het gekochte document is altijd, overal en oneindig toegankelijk via je profiel.
Tevredenheidsgarantie: hoe werkt dat?
Onze tevredenheidsgarantie zorgt ervoor dat je altijd een studiedocument vindt dat goed bij je past. Je vult een formulier in en onze klantenservice regelt de rest.
Van wie koop ik deze samenvatting?
Stuvia is een marktplaats, je koop dit document dus niet van ons, maar van verkoper giacomoef. Stuvia faciliteert de betaling aan de verkoper.
Zit ik meteen vast aan een abonnement?
Nee, je koopt alleen deze samenvatting voor €4,99. Je zit daarna nergens aan vast.
