Other
TRL3709 ASSIGNMENT 6 SEMESTER 2 2022
- Course
- TRL3709 - Logistics Strategy
- Institution
- University Of South Africa (Unisa)
THE DOCUMENT CONTAINS CORRECT ANSWERS THAT ARE EASY TO UNDERSTAND .
[Show more]
1 review
By: zwanethmb • 2 year ago
Content preview
TRL3709ASSIGNMENT 6
SEMESTER 2
2022
Question 1
1.1 Load shedding has become a significant challenge to many South African
households, businesses and other entities. The four types of forecasting
, techniques, Eskom can use to forecast electricity (Megawatts) demand so
they may work toward providing an uninterrupted supply of power.
Eskom may use Qualitative forecasting methods. According to Chopra &
Meindl (2015:191). Qualitative forecasting methods are primarily subjective
and rely on human judgment. They are most appropriate when little historical
data are available or when experts have market intelligence that may affect
the forecast. Such methods may also be necessary to forecast Eskom
demand several years into the future in a new industry.
The second method is time series. Time-series forecasting methods use
historical demand to make a forecast. They are based on the assumption that
past demand history is a good indicator of future demand. These methods are
most appropriate when the basic demand pattern does not vary significantly
from one year to the next. These are the simplest methods to implement and
can serve as a good starting point for a demand forecast.(Chopra and Meindl,
2015: 192)
Eskom may also use Causal forecasting. Causal forecasting methods assume
that the demand forecast is highly correlated with certain factors in the
environment (the state of the economy, interest rates, etc.). Causal
forecasting methods find this correlation between demand and environmental
factors and use estimates of what environmental factors will be to forecast
future demand. For example, product pricing is strongly correlated with
demand. Eskom can thus use causal methods to determine the impact of
price promotions on demand.
Eskom may also use Simulation forecasting. Simulation forecasting methods
imitate the consumer choices that giverise to demand to arrive at a forecast.
Using simulation, a firm can combine time-series and causal methods to
answer such questions as: What will be the impact of a price promotion?
What will be the impact of a competitor opening a store nearby? Airlines
simulate customer buying behavior to forecast demand for higher-fare seats
when no seats are available at lower fares.
The benefits of buying summaries with Stuvia:
Guaranteed quality through customer reviews
Stuvia customers have reviewed more than 700,000 summaries. This how you know that you are buying the best documents.
Quick and easy check-out
You can quickly pay through EFT, credit card or Stuvia-credit for the summaries. There is no membership needed.
Focus on what matters
Your fellow students write the study notes themselves, which is why the documents are always reliable and up-to-date. This ensures you quickly get to the core!
Frequently asked questions
What do I get when I buy this document?
You get a PDF, available immediately after your purchase. The purchased document is accessible anytime, anywhere and indefinitely through your profile.
Satisfaction guarantee: how does it work?
Our satisfaction guarantee ensures that you always find a study document that suits you well. You fill out a form, and our customer service team takes care of the rest.
Who am I buying this summary from?
Stuvia is a marketplace, so you are not buying this document from us, but from seller Regal00. Stuvia facilitates payment to the seller.
Will I be stuck with a subscription?
No, you only buy this summary for R124,00. You're not tied to anything after your purchase.
Can Stuvia be trusted?
4.6 stars on Google & Trustpilot (+1000 reviews)
73216 documents were sold in the last 30 days
Founded in 2010, the go-to place to buy summaries for 14 years now